EVO THREATENS, SANTA CRUZ CLASH POSSIBLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002072 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2018 TAGS: ASEC CASC PGOV PREL PTER BL SUBJECT: EVO THREATENS, SANTA CRUZ CLASH POSSIBLE Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b,d ¶1. (C) Summary: Announcing that he had left an agreement signed, President Evo Morales left Bolivia September 22 to attend the UNGA in New York. Morales also said that the siege of the city of Santa Cruz would be immediately suspended if the prefects would sign the agreement that guarantees a law convoking a referendum on the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) constitution. With Evo's social forces threatening to enter Santa Cruz September 24 (Santa Cruz's "National Day") the risk of violence is very real. The government publicly called for a 48 hours suspension of the siege on September 23, but some government-aligned social movements have declared that they do not intend to lift the siege. The public call for suspension of the seige may be cover for the government, a way of distancing the government from whatever violence may take place. End summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - When Encouragement Sounds Threatening - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) "If the prefects sign this with the government, peace and tranquillity will return to Santa Cruz," Morales announced as he left for New York to attend the UNGA. Vice President Garcia Linera defended the armed siege of the city by social organizations and Masistas, saying that it is "for the unity of the country and the institutionality of democracy." In what the Santa Cruz opposition views as a thinly-veiled threat, Morales declared, "I want to ask Prefect (Costas) to sign, so that the anniversary (September 24, Santa Cruz Day) can pass peacefully." ¶3. (C) Various leaders of MAS-aligned groups (including campesinos, miners, and cocaleros) have announced that their intention is to have 20,000 to 50,000 people surrounding the city, ready to enter "when ordered." MAS replacement congressman Orlando Llanos announced that "tomorrow we will be in the city", while campesino leader Julio Salazar declared that "I'm not promising that by Friday we'll be marching, but there may be actions such as taking the lands of the entrepreneurs." - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The Real Constitutional Question - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) Emboff met with Congressman Michiaki Nagatani (Santa Cruz - MNR),head of the Congressional Foreign Relations Committee. According to Nagatani, the Santa Cruz congressional block met and agreed that Santa Cruz Prefect Ruben Costas should not/not sign any agreement that allows the draft MAS constitution to include a clause that allows for changes to the constitution by a simple majority in one house (the current proposal includes this clause, which would virtually guarantee President Morales' stranglehold over the country.) The opposition congressmen realize that the dialogue is not about sharing hydrocarbon tax revenues (IDH) or autonomy, it is about Evo getting the new constitution through with that clause intact, because while Morales might agree to autonomy and the return of hydrocarbon tax revenues now, as soon as the constitution passed he would be able shape the country to his ends since he currently has a strong majority in the lower house. Nagatani said, "We are looking at a dictator worse than Castro if the constitution passes." - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Manipulation of International Facilitators - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) British Ambassador Nigel Baker said that after the meetings adjourned on September 21, the international facilitators left, intending to return to Cochabamba for the resumption of meetings on September 25. Three hours out of town, Baker received a call from the government requiring his "urgent" return so that President Morales could sign a document "essential for the pacification of the country" with the observers as witnesses. After calling opposition contacts to discover that the opposition was not aware of this new document, Baker and other observers returned, only to find that the government wished for the observers to also sign this document. All international organizations refused to sign, pointing out that they were only witnesses and facilitators and furthermore, could not sign a document that had not been agreed to by all parties. Baker said that there was a "tough battle" among the UNASUR delegates, with the Venezuelans pushing for signature and Colombia, Brazil and Argentina arguing against. The Venezuelans threatened to call Chavez, and the other delegations (in Baker's words "clearly annoyed") also called in reinforcement from their capitals. Baker described the event as "an unsubtle effort to push the facilitators into a corner, which did not work and will not have won the government many friends...Morales said that only signature of this document would call off the 20,000 members of the 'social movements' currently blockading Santa Cruz..." Baker added, "The government is being disingenuous...the militants outside Santa Cruz are operating in the government's name. A word from Morales would reduce the tension and probably relieve the blockade. But the pressure on Santa Cruz is useful, while carrying with it the high risk of violence..." - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Police Ordered Not to Interfere - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) Government Minister Alfredo Rada publicly ruled out the possibility of a police intervention to protect Santa Cruz, despite the fact that many of the MAS-aligned groups surrounding the city are known to be armed. Local Guard Force contacts in Santa Cruz inform us that, responding to an order from La Paz, several police units have been instructed to go meet the government-aligned marchers and recommend to them that they go home. However, the police do not intend to try to stop the government-aligned forces, merely to "pass on the information from the government." Press reports indicate that journalists and lawyers who approached the government-aligned crowds urging them to break the siege were attacked on September 22 and had to take refuge in private homes in Santa Cruz. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Santa Cruz Opposition Groups Ready for Defense - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) Santa Cruz civic groups including the prefecture-aligned Santa Cruz Youth Union declared their intent to protect the city. Congressman Walter Arrazola (opposition PODEMOS party) presented the Santa Cruz police with a statement indicating that "if the armed militias enter into Santa Cruz, the town has the freedom to arm itself to defend lives, physical integrity, and families." The Youth Union and university students released a document promising to meet violence with violence, "We are always ready to defend our people. In Santa Cruz blood has already been spilled (a Youth Union member died of head injuries from a clash with MAS supporters); don't believe that we'll let this happen again." - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Social Groups Not Fully Under Control - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) Despite President Morales' confidence that he can "immediately suspend" the siege of Santa Cruz, new reports are emerging that highlight the difficulty in controlling thousands of armed, angry, and often inebriated marchers. The Erbol news agency, usually supportive of the government, is reporting that the "colonizers" (a name altiplano indigenous who have moved into the lowlands sometimes use for themselves),cocaleros and other government-aligned social groups are "sowing terror" along their route to Santa Cruz. Erbol reports that the MAS-aligned marchers are using boxes of dynamite and firearms, threatening radio stations, burning houses, and roughing-up the locals, according to the subprefect of the Santa Cruz province of Ichilo, Mamerto Quiroga. "Yesterday a symphony orchestra of children which accompanies the mass and was practicing for their participation in the holiday (Santa Cruz Day) were practically dynamited. They're kids of eight to twelve years, how can (the marchers) act this way?" Quiroga told Erbol. Quiroga added that the MAS-aligned marchers, who were masked, threw dynamite at people without fear of reprisal, and when Quiroga as a provincial authority turned to the police, the police declined to interfere due to the number of marchers. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Possible Pando-ization of Santa Cruz? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (C) Some observers worry that the government may be planning a Pando-like scenario for Santa Cruz if violence gets out of hand. Government ministers have already threatened to extend the state of siege (currently declared in Pando) to other opposition departments, and deaths in Santa Cruz on either side could provide the pretext to place Santa Cruz under a state of siege and arrest Santa Cruz Prefect Ruben Costas, as happened with Pando Prefect Leopoldo Fernandez. Costas is an extremely popular figure in his home department of Santa Cruz and the most-visible leader of the regional opposition. It is not clear whether his arrest would break the opposition or spur opposition followers to increased levels of violence. ¶10. Congressman Michiaki Nagatani also told Emboff that the government-aligned marchers know the risk they would be taking if they ever were try to move into the city. Nagatani warned Emboff that he has heard that the Santa Cruz Youth Union and university students plan to allow the government forces to enter the city of Santa Cruz, cut the electricity to the city at night, and then attack the government-aligned groups: "it would be a thousand times worse than Pando." - - - - Comment - - - - ¶11. (C) On the opposition side, the Santa Cruz Youth Union has been associated in the past with violent clashes, and university students are historically difficult to control. The opposition-aligned groups are operating under a sense of grievance as the government supports what they view as an armed invasion of their home. Meanwhile, government rhetoric painting easterners (and Crucenos in particular) as 'racist oligarchs' has riled up the MAS-aligned marchers. Both sides are known to have weapons, and both sides have now threatened to use them. A random spark could easily ignite violence, and Post called an Emergency Action Committee (EAC) meeting for 1600 on September 23 to discuss the situation and necessary steps to protect American citizens in the area. A warden message is also being sent out advising Amcits to exercise extreme caution in Santa Cruz on September 24. The government's public call for a 48-hour suspension of the siege could be real, but it may also be a ruse to allow the government to claim innocence in any violence which may ensue, as the government-aligned forces have stated their intention to continue the pressure tactics in Santa Cruz. End Comment. URS