CN PROGRAMS SURVIVE DECERTIFICATION BACKLASH (FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002005 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR SNAR BL SUBJECT: CN PROGRAMS SURVIVE DECERTIFICATION BACKLASH (FOR NOW) REF: LA PAZ 1995 Classified By: A/EcoPol Chief Brian Quigley for reasons 1.4 (b)(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Bolivian government's public backlash for the September 16 USG decision to decertify Bolivian counter-narcotics efforts as failing demonstrably to cooperate in accordance with its bilateral and internal obligations was less harsh than anticipated. Outreach to Bolivian officials (reftel) seemed to have thus far proved effective in softening the government reaction and President Evo Morales is currently focused on dealing with the political crisis in Bolivia. ¶2. (C) While there have been plenty of terse, negative attacks on the decision, it has not (so far) resulted in the government severing or threatening to sever counter-narcotics assistance programs and cooperation. Such a reaction may still be in making, as our announcement came at the end of a very politically tumultuous day for the government. Nevertheless, with the exception of Morales' singling out of USAID, the reaction has been mild per Evo's standards. End Summary. VP First to Denounce "Political" Decertification -------------- --- ¶3. (U) Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera publicly lambasted the USG's September 16 decision to decertify Bolivia for its counter-narcotics efforts later the same day. The first government official to address the issue, Garcia Linera described the decision as "political, arbitrary, technically unjustified, and politically rigged," since Bolivia has strictly complied in the battle against drugs and coca eradication. He added "Bolivians do not deserve this." Evo Attacks USG's "Black List" -------------- ¶4. (C) President Evo Morales called the decision "blackmail" September 17 and argued that the decision was overtly political and largely based on his decision to PNG the Ambassador. Morales alleged a decertification double standard, comparing Bolivia's five percent increase in coca production to Colombia's increase of 27 percent, using UN data. Morales asserted only countries that "respect the human rights with the participation of social movements, small farmer movements ... are put on the black list." (Note: Bloomberg's coverage of Morales' statements includes comments from INL A/S David Johnson, who stated the actual increase was 14 percent for 2007, with an increase from 115 to 120 metric tons of cocaine. Our DEA predicts as much as 180 metric tons for 2008. End Note.) ¶5. (U) Most of Morales' comments were rehashed boilerplate attacks on USG counter-narcotics efforts: --"We are not afraid of these campaigns against the government using black lists." --"There should be a certification process for those who are fighting drug trafficking by eliminating the consumer demand." --"For the dignity of Latin America, South America, I publicly ask and have asked during meetings of Unasur that we will resolve these issues of counter-narcotics (As opposed to working with the USG). Because the United States uses the war on narcotics as its best instrument for political control." --"As a pretext for the narcotics war, (the United States uses) military bases that violate the dignity and sovereignty of the peoples (of Latin America.) As a pretext for the narcotics war, (the United States) prosecutes leaders." --"USAID is an agency of conspiracy that cooperates ... I want you to know my Bolivian compatriots, that we will honor our dignity by permanently cutting ties with these agencies of conspiracy and dirty campaigns, against the government and against the president, but even more, we have proof." Bolivian Media Get's the Story Right -------------- ¶6. (U) The decertification decision made the front pages of all major dailies. Stories generally highlighted that the decertification does not necessarily mean programs will be cut nor that ATPDEA trade preferences will be eliminated. Leading La Paz dailies La Razon and La Prensa used the following headlines, respectively: "The U.S. decertifies Bolivia for the First Time and Keeps its Assistance;" "The U.S. Puts Bolivia on its 'Black List' Due to Counter-Narcotics 'Failure.'" Leading Santa Cruz daily El Deber led with "U.S. Includes Bolivia on its 'Black List,'" and the cover of Santa Cruz's El Mundo displays a photo of President Bush looking down on the headline, "For Him, We Are Narco-Traffickers." ¶7. (U) Many dailies ran A/S Thomas Shannon's public explanation that the September 11 PNG of the Ambassador was not/not the cause for the decertification. Shannon explained that Bolivia had not cooperated sufficiently in the battle against drug trafficking. Storm Clouds on the Horizon -------------- ¶8. (C) Vice Minister of Social Defense Felipe Caceres seemed uncharacteristically cautious, short, and guarded when speaking to our NAS Director September 17, underscoring the fact that we cannot rule out a more concrete response to our decertification decision in the next few days. "I do not have any exact instructions yet," said Caceres. Caceres was notably less optimistic than September 16, when he told us the government would announce a largely symbolic "nationalization" of CN efforts, but would continue to accept USG CN assistance (reftel). We are not home free yet. URS