BOLMIL'S PREDICTABLE PROMOTIONS AND RED LINES

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000020 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/04/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ECON BL SUBJECT: BOLMIL'S PREDICTABLE PROMOTIONS AND RED LINES REF: A. LA PAZ 3262-2007 ¶B. LA PAZ 3119-2007 Classified By: Acting EcoPol Chief Brian Quigley for reasons 1.4 (b) an d (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Promotions of Bolivia's military high command announced January 2 appeared free from overt political manipulations. However, President Evo Morales and both incoming and outgoing armed forces commanders made calls for increasing government influence in the military and using the military as an instrument to advance the government's change agenda. Morales also used the promotion event to underscore the military's role to defend "democracy" and the unity of the country, a barb at opposition leaders' call for increased department (state) autonomy. Military commanders continue to tell us they are very reluctant to involve the military in civil disturbances and place a high threshold for military use in any future crackdown in opposition-controlled departments, although they concede plans exist to do just that should the opposition's calls for autonomy lead to acts of "independence." End Summary. ¶2. (C) For the most part, the January 2 promotion orders for the new Bolivian military high command corresponded with institutional norms and expectations. Lieutenant General Luis Trigo Antello takes over as the new Commander of the Armed Forces, with Brigadier General Jose Prudencio becoming his Chief of Staff. Service commands went to Brigadier General Freddy Mackay Peralta for the army, Brigadier General Carlos Daniel Salazar Osorio for the air force, and Commander Jose Luis Cabas Villegas for the navy. All five were the first in their classes and the logical next in line of succession with the exception of Cabas. Cabas gained his position because the outgoing naval commander, Jose Alba Arnez, declined a position as the Armed Forces Inspector General (the navy rotated into the joint armed services position in 2008). Naval Commander Ernesto Roca, who was to succeed Alba as navy commander, was then offered the IG job. Roca told DOA he had no interest in the IG job and decided to retire. Although daily La Razon cites unnamed naval commanders who claim Cabas' appointment is "political," his promotion appears to be by the book as the next ranking naval officer after Alba and Roca. Morales: Your Job is to Protect (Me) the Country -------------- --- ¶3. (C) Morales explained to his new commanders that the military has the singular responsibility to defend the unity of the country. He said the new generation of military commanders is "deepening democracy." Morales also said "these are new times" that would require closer relations among the military, government, and people. He indicated an expanded social/political role for the military that would include recovering Bolivia's hydrocarbon riches and distribution of checks to children and the elderly. Morales also said the military would take an increasing role providing professionals in the metallurgy, mineral, and hydrocarbon sectors. (Note: Although such duties are broadly supported by the military's mission statement, field commanders are already grumbling about the military's expanding social role. End Note.) Surrounded by Military, Evo Stresses Dialogue -------------- ¶4. (U) Morales stressed the potential for dialogue with the opposition during his promotion event remarks, but added democracy and the "unity of the country is not open to debate." Both official and private media have implied the comment is directed at five opposition prefects (governors) scheduled to meet with Morales January 7. Morales used the military event to advise regional opposition leaders to reflect on their attitudes prior to the meeting, which will include "all subjects" according to official news agency ABI. Vargas/Trigo Echo Evo, Propose "Annihilation" for "Enemies" -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Outgoing Armed Forces Commander, General Wilfredo Vargas, gave his most overtly political speech to date during the promotion event. Vargas said he was grateful to President Evo Morales was allowing him to "participate in transitional measures of change" during Morales' administration. Echoing Morales, Vargas said today's military is "part of the government's agenda of change" and that the military, government, and people had formed a "united trinity." In eerie semblance to Morales' assertions his government is under attack by both internal and external forces (including the United States),Vargas stated the military was always ready to defend the country against enemies "internal and external." In an only slightly veiled threat to opposition leaders in eastern states, Vargas stressed the military's role to protect the unity of the country and that it should always be alert to dissuade and, if necessary, "annihilate all enemies of the country." Parroting Vargas, Trigo emphasized national unity and said, "The armed forces that I am leading are institutions clearly aligned with (the Morales' administrations) process of change." ¶6. (C) Vargas' upturn in politicized statements, which started about a month ago, marks a departure from his earlier standard fare stressing the importance of the military as an independent institution. Gratitude to the government seemed to eclipse gratitude to the military during his farewell speech. Our sources say this is no coincidence as Vargas is advocating himself for a future job as either customs head or defense minister. Although either is a possibility, sources indicate the customs position is more likely, both because Morales has made no signs he intends to replace existing Defense Minister Walker San Miguel and because the custom's job is more lucrative as a source of corruption. Military Signals and Red Lines -------------- ¶7. (C) Of the outgoing high commanders, only Army Commander General Freddy Bersatti did not attend the promotion event. General Alba did not appear at a going away event the previous day. DAO suspects both no-shows were intentional slights at the government and opposition to Morales' new government/military order. ¶8. (C) A list of opposition leaders to be targeted by Bolivian security forces was shown on a popular television program in mid-December. The host showed close-ups of the "secret" document, which ostensibly would be used should opposition leaders push for powers beyond what is constitutionally authorized. When asked to define what that meant in practice, General Bersatti told DATT last week he would only intervene against opposition-led department (state) governments if they declared independence (not autonomy) or took a role explicitly reserved for the national government by the existing constitution, such as reaching commercial agreements with foreign countries or creating an alternate military (he said creating/expanding state or local police forces was allowed). Although we have yet to talk at length about such issues with General Trigo, his comments to date indicate a similar high threshold for intervention in opposition-controlled departments and a desire, consistent among ranking officers, to keep the military out of civil disturbances. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Comment: Why no overtly political manipulation of the promotion process? We suspect Evo reasoned there would be little to gain and much to loose by promoting officers outside of institutional norms. None of the higher ranking officers eligible for promotion had a history of independence or government criticism. These higher ranking officers have already been working under the influence of the Morales government since Evo came to power two years ago and are predisposed toward protecting their careers. Although the new group at the high command is less overtly political and more institutionally loyal and pro-U.S. than Evo would probably like, they are also unlikely to risk their careers by joining their more radical and critical subordinate field commanders in insubordination or outright rebellion. Morales also has some safety valves for potential insubordination from service commanders: their boss Trigo already showed his penchant for falling in line by leading the failed attempt to militarize the Santa Cruz international airport. It took Vargas a year to get to the level of politicized speech Trigo demonstrated yesterday, showing his clear disposition to follow Morales' lead. Also service commanders' immediate subordinates, to be selected in consultation with the Morales, are likely to be more MAS friendly, keeping one eye on their respective bosses while keeping the other fixed on the next round of promotions. By keeping with the established institutional script, Morales also bolsters his strained relationship with more independent field commanders. He will need to depend on these commanders to execute any future crack downs on the opposition and has deprived them of an excuse to oppose or "selectively implement" such an order. Evo also cleverly asks the opposition to "reflect" on dialogue with the 800-pound gorilla of the military behind him, a force he simultaneously said will become increasingly aligned with government/people (read politicized). ¶10. (C) Comment Continued. Although Bersatti and other commanders had assured us for weeks the promotions would be strictly merit-based as the only logical option, it is never a given that Evo picks the most logical, reasonable course of action. Respecting the institutional integrity of the armed forces above crass political appointments is a win for Morales, for the Bolivian Armed Forces, and for us. It may also be a sign that he does not intend to push the military into an open confrontation with the citizens of Santa Cruz, consistent with his December orders to "avoid confrontations." Or that he understands the military would not follow him into a civil war absent an unlikely clear break with the national government in the opposition-led departments. Either way, it is good news. End Comment. URS