BOLIVIA: DIALOGUE DESIRED BUT DOUBTFUL

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001966

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PTER BL
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: DIALOGUE DESIRED BUT DOUBTFUL

Classified By: A/DCM Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b,d


1. (C) Publicly, both the opposition and the government say
they want to meet for dialogue. As a show of good faith, the
opposition has called off regional road blocks. Based on
past statements, however, there seems to be little will to
compromise. The opposition has said it absolutely requires
the return of hydrocarbon tax revenues while President
Morales has said that he will not accept any changes to the
draft constitution (which currently contradicts the
opposition departments' autonomy statutes.) In addition, the
government has announced that Pando Prefect Fernandez will be
sentenced to 30 years in prison for his alleged role in
recent events which left many dead (note: Fernandez has not
had a trial and has not been taken into custody in Pando.)
Vice President Garcia Linera declared that "murderers are not
valid interlocutors" and that the government would not
negotiate with Prefect Fernandez.


2. (C) The opposition has also stated that a condition for
negotiation be that there are no further deaths. Our sources
tell us that the opposition fears a crackdown, possibly from
the military. Contacts tell the Embassy that the opposition
governors (CONALDE) have "no trust" in the government and
feel that Evo and his cabinet will not keep his word. We are
told that Cossio's September 12 meeting with Vice President
Garcia Linera was hostile and filled with threats from the
vice president. CONALDE is trying to send a delegation led
by Senate President Oscar Ortiz to the UNASUR meeting in
Santiago. Opposition contacts have also told us that they
have confirmed that one of the MAS-aligned "campesino"
combatants in Pando was actually active-duty military
(septel). The presence of military forces in a conflict that
the government is calling a "genocide" perpetrated by
opposition forces against innocent campesinos further damages
any confidence the opposition might have had in the
government's honesty.


3. (C) The government has previously threatened Santa Cruz
Prefect Costas with prison for his role in the opposition
protests, and many of the opposition leaders have reported
receiving threats to themselves and their families. The
opposition has recently requested intervention from the
United Nations: the opposition is not as confident in other
possible mediators such as the OAS and the Friends Group
(Colombia, Argentina, Brazil). Friends' Group leaders,
including Argentine President Cristina Kirchner, have
recently made statements of "unconditional support" for
President Morales and the government. Additionally, the
opposition questions OAS impartiality after the OAS gave its
approval to the August 10 recall referenda, despite voter
roll problems which the OAS team acknowledged it had not had
time to investigate.


4. (C) Opposition contacts have told us they are trying to
get international bodies into Pando so that there is a more
impartial source of information than the central government
(which is calling the recent deadly conflict "genocide" and
has accused the Pando Prefect of "murder".) The central
government previously accused Pando Prefect Fernandez of
impeding humanitarian assistance to the region; now, however,
the central government itself has blocked media and
humanitarian groups from entering Pando, fueling opposition
fears that some sort of coverup is taking place.


5. (C) Comment: Other opposition leaders are watching events
in Pando as a precursor to what they may expect in their
departments, and the government's accusations and actions are
not inspiring confidence. Tarija Prefect Cossio has also
stated publicly that his role as a "pre-negotiator" is
complicated by the fact that he is representing the four
opposition departments of the Media Luna and also, to some
extent, Chuquisaca (whose prefect, Sabina Cuellar, broke with
the ruling Movement Toward Socialism party and has recently
called on President Morales to step down for the good of the
country.) Meanwhile, the central government's rejection of
mediation offers from Brazil and the Friends Group suggests
that the central government is not interested in dialogue.
In addition, government-aligned social groups who intend to
protest at the Embassy 9/15 have been seen carrying placards
calling for "no dialogue" and imprisonment of the prefects:
since the social movements often act as a proxy-voice for the
central government, this also bodes ill for dialogue.
Although both the opposition and the government will continue
to make public statements about a desire for dialogue,
neither side trusts the other and we anticipate dialogue to
fail unless a mutally-trusted international body (such as,
possibly, the UN) steps in. End comment.
URS