FOR LEGAL COVER, EVO ASKS CONGRESS FOR ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001920

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM BL
SUBJECT: FOR LEGAL COVER, EVO ASKS CONGRESS FOR ELECTIONS

REF: LA PAZ 1839

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b,d


1. (C) Summary: In an attempt to provide a legal veneer to
his prior decree calling for a referendum on the Movement
Toward Socialism (MAS) constitution and possibly to distract
attention from the contents of the constitution itself
(including the provision allowing for re-election of the
President),President Evo Morales has sent bills to congress
requesting a referendum on the constitution. While the
opposition-controlled Senate is ready to block the bills,
recent history shows that the MAS may outmaneuver the
opposition through extra-legal means. Neither the opposition
or the MAS is now trying for dialogue, and compromise on the
text of the constitution is unlikely. End summary.

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Evo to Ask Congress for Legal Changes
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2. (C) Responding to the National Electoral Court's rejection
of his decree calling for a constitutional referendum on
December 7 (reftel) and amidst worsening food and fuel
shortages, President Evo Morales announced on September 7
that he would send bills to congress to set January 25 as the
date for the constitutional referendum and to set electoral
policies for subprefects and departmental advisors. Analysts
who have seen the bills warn that the bills to modify the
Bolivian National Electoral Code, the Political Parties Law
and the Law of Citizen Groupings and Indigenous Peoples could
have far-reaching effects which are currently being ignored.


3. (SBU) The bill to modify the Electoral Code would change
the accepted requirement of a three-fifths quorum in the
National Electoral Court (CNE),allowing instead for the CNE
to meet and make decisions with fewer than three of the five
members present, and it would make it easier for the
government to sanction the Departmental Electoral Courts.
The bill to modify the Political Parties Law and the Law of
Citizen Groupings would change the way that political parties
are defined, giving more power to the CNE.


4. (C) Comment: The CNE rejected President Morales' earlier
attempt to call for the constitutional referendum by Supreme
Decree, and Morales reacted by calling CNE President
Exeni--whom Morales appointed--an opposition stooge. At the
time, observers suggested that the CNE would not have called
for congressional involvement without Morales'
behind-the-scenes permission. Now Morales is submitting
bills to congress as the CNE demanded and including in those
bills measures that would increase the CNE's power over the
departmental courts while making it easier for the CNE to be
controlled by one person, presumably Evo's appointee Exeni.
End comment.

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Opposition Poised to Block Evo in Congress
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5. (C) In a meeting with opposition PODEMOS senators Oscar
Ortiz (Senate President) and Roger Pinto (PODEMOS Senate
leader),the senators told Emboff that they believe they can
block the bill to call for a referendum on the constitution.
Despite Morales' and the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS)
party's history of extra-legal maneuverings such as besieging
congress to block opposition participation, the senators were
confident that they would not be overrun this time. The
senators also claimed that if the laws pass under irregular
circumstances, the Departmental Electoral Courts will not
comply with the requirements for calling a referendum.
(Comment: While certainly the PODEMOS-controlled Senate
should be able to prevent Evo from passing a law to allow for
the referendum on the new MAS constitution, given the
opposition's history of being outflanked by the government,
we would not be surprised if they are outmaneuvered again.
End comment.)

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Compromise Over Constitution Unlikely
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6. (C) MAS Senator Felix Rojas announced in a press
conference that there is still the possibility of "consensus
through dialogue" on the text of the MAS constitution. MAS
congressman Gustavo Torrico agreed that "it is possible to
make necessary and coherent changes to the constitution
approved in Oruro, but without removing its essence, which is
inclusion and the launching of a new State model." However,
President Morales has said that there is no possibility of
any change to the MAS constitution and has invited those who
disagree with its contents to "vote against it in the
referendum." Morales argued, "(our) stance is that the
Constituent Assembly emitted a constitutional text that
should be sovereign. We can deal with difficulties through
regulations, in secondary measures."

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Comment
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7. (C) The MAS constitution was drafted by MAS advisers
rather than by the elected members of the Constituent
Assembly. It was voted on by a portion of the Constituent
Assembly that excluded most of the opposition, who had been
physically blocked from entering the meeting. It has been
illegally modified by the government since that vote. Only
now, after his advisors have both written and modified the
text, does President Morales feel that it is inviolable,
excluding the possibility of compromise with the opposition.
End comment.
GOLDBERG