FOR LEGAL COVER, EVO ASKS CONGRESS FOR ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001920 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM BL SUBJECT: FOR LEGAL COVER, EVO ASKS CONGRESS FOR ELECTIONS REF: LA PAZ 1839 Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b,d ¶1. (C) Summary: In an attempt to provide a legal veneer to his prior decree calling for a referendum on the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) constitution and possibly to distract attention from the contents of the constitution itself (including the provision allowing for re-election of the President),President Evo Morales has sent bills to congress requesting a referendum on the constitution. While the opposition-controlled Senate is ready to block the bills, recent history shows that the MAS may outmaneuver the opposition through extra-legal means. Neither the opposition or the MAS is now trying for dialogue, and compromise on the text of the constitution is unlikely. End summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Evo to Ask Congress for Legal Changes - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Responding to the National Electoral Court's rejection of his decree calling for a constitutional referendum on December 7 (reftel) and amidst worsening food and fuel shortages, President Evo Morales announced on September 7 that he would send bills to congress to set January 25 as the date for the constitutional referendum and to set electoral policies for subprefects and departmental advisors. Analysts who have seen the bills warn that the bills to modify the Bolivian National Electoral Code, the Political Parties Law and the Law of Citizen Groupings and Indigenous Peoples could have far-reaching effects which are currently being ignored. ¶3. (SBU) The bill to modify the Electoral Code would change the accepted requirement of a three-fifths quorum in the National Electoral Court (CNE),allowing instead for the CNE to meet and make decisions with fewer than three of the five members present, and it would make it easier for the government to sanction the Departmental Electoral Courts. The bill to modify the Political Parties Law and the Law of Citizen Groupings would change the way that political parties are defined, giving more power to the CNE. ¶4. (C) Comment: The CNE rejected President Morales' earlier attempt to call for the constitutional referendum by Supreme Decree, and Morales reacted by calling CNE President Exeni--whom Morales appointed--an opposition stooge. At the time, observers suggested that the CNE would not have called for congressional involvement without Morales' behind-the-scenes permission. Now Morales is submitting bills to congress as the CNE demanded and including in those bills measures that would increase the CNE's power over the departmental courts while making it easier for the CNE to be controlled by one person, presumably Evo's appointee Exeni. End comment. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Opposition Poised to Block Evo in Congress - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) In a meeting with opposition PODEMOS senators Oscar Ortiz (Senate President) and Roger Pinto (PODEMOS Senate leader),the senators told Emboff that they believe they can block the bill to call for a referendum on the constitution. Despite Morales' and the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party's history of extra-legal maneuverings such as besieging congress to block opposition participation, the senators were confident that they would not be overrun this time. The senators also claimed that if the laws pass under irregular circumstances, the Departmental Electoral Courts will not comply with the requirements for calling a referendum. (Comment: While certainly the PODEMOS-controlled Senate should be able to prevent Evo from passing a law to allow for the referendum on the new MAS constitution, given the opposition's history of being outflanked by the government, we would not be surprised if they are outmaneuvered again. End comment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Compromise Over Constitution Unlikely - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) MAS Senator Felix Rojas announced in a press conference that there is still the possibility of "consensus through dialogue" on the text of the MAS constitution. MAS congressman Gustavo Torrico agreed that "it is possible to make necessary and coherent changes to the constitution approved in Oruro, but without removing its essence, which is inclusion and the launching of a new State model." However, President Morales has said that there is no possibility of any change to the MAS constitution and has invited those who disagree with its contents to "vote against it in the referendum." Morales argued, "(our) stance is that the Constituent Assembly emitted a constitutional text that should be sovereign. We can deal with difficulties through regulations, in secondary measures." - - - - Comment - - - - ¶7. (C) The MAS constitution was drafted by MAS advisers rather than by the elected members of the Constituent Assembly. It was voted on by a portion of the Constituent Assembly that excluded most of the opposition, who had been physically blocked from entering the meeting. It has been illegally modified by the government since that vote. Only now, after his advisors have both written and modified the text, does President Morales feel that it is inviolable, excluding the possibility of compromise with the opposition. End comment. GOLDBERG