EVO PLANS REELECTION, CLASHES WITH ELECTORAL COURT

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001866

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC KDEM BL
SUBJECT: EVO PLANS REELECTION, CLASHES WITH ELECTORAL COURT

REF: LA PAZ 1865

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b,d


1. (C) Summary: On September 1, the National Electoral Court
made public a series of interpretive letters that challenged
President Evo Morales' supreme decrees of August 28. The
National Court demanded laws (through congress) to call for
the referendum on the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS)
constitution and to elect subprefects and departmental
advisors. The National Court also stated that it will
require the full 120 days permitted by law to arrange
referenda to replace the two prefects recalled on August 10
(La Paz and Cochabamba),instead of the 102 days that the
supreme decree allowed. The National Electoral Court also
reminded Chuquisaca Prefect Savina Cuellar that she does not
have the authority to call for an autonomy referendum, as she
recently did, and chided the Santa Cruz Departmental
Electoral Court for allowing Santa Cruz Prefect Ruben Costas
to call for departmental elections. Although the current
Bolivian constitution grants the National Electoral Court
final say on all matters regarding elections, the central
government was quick to contradict the National Electoral
Court, saying that the supreme decrees were legal in calling
for the various referenda and elections on December 7.
Acting-President Garcia Linera, speaking for President Evo
Morales was abroad in Iran, declared that after the MAS
constitution is approved by referendum on December 7, there
will be nationwide elections for the President, Vice
President, and members of congress in 2009. End summary.

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National Electoral Court Surprise
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2. (C) Although the President of the National Electoral
Court, Jose Luis Exeni, was appointed by President Evo
Morales, this is the third time he has made a legal
determination seemingly against MAS interests and been
swiftly rejected by the executive branch and the MAS. In
March 2008, Exeni issued a ruling that a constitutional
referendum scheduled for May 4 by congressional legislation
could not go forward as scheduled, citing the lack of 120
days to organize the election. Before the August 10 recall
referenda, Exeni issued another declaration modifying the
rules for the recall of the prefects, a rule which eventually
the MAS accepted (because it protected the MAS prefect of
Oruro) but which was initially rejected by Evo and the MAS.
Exeni's September 1 decision, in which the National Electoral
Court declared it would not go ahead with the referendum on
the MAS constitution without a law from Congress, is
apparently another "unexpected" strike at Evo and the MAS
from a MAS-appointed official. (Note: Exeni and the National
Electoral Court also emitted a decision that election of
subprefects and departmental advisors would require a
modification of existing law, thus necessitating
congressional involvement. End note.)


3. (SBU) Legal Defense Minister Hector Arce responded
publicly that the National Electoral Court's published
letters did not have legal standing. "The communication that
the National Electoral Court sent to acting-President Alvaro
Garcia Linera is not a judicial document, it does not
generate any related effect and cannot--although it tries
to--suspend the execution of the elective acts and referenda
legally and legitimately convoked by the President of the
Republic Evo Morales Ayma for the day of December 7," Arce
declared.


4. (C) However, former Minister of Justice Bernardo Wayar
told Emboff September 2 that in his opinion, "Exeni would not
have done this without prior government approval." In
Wayar's view, Exeni's announcement and the subsequent
rejection by the executive branch allow Evo and his ministers
to buy time and get a feel for public sentiment. "It also
puts the pressure on the legislative branch," Wayar
suggested, explaining that if a rule from congress is deemed
necessary, the MAS can mobilize its social organizations to
besiege congress again, and the opposition-controlled senate
will be blamed for thwarting "the will of the people" if a
law is not passed. As a well-respected lawyer, the former
Minister of Justice also added that Exeni and the National
Electoral Court had to decide as they did, because existing
Bolivian law in fact makes Evo's decrees illegal. Pointing
out that numerous judicial appointments are currently
pending, Wayar suggested that the executive branch may
welcome the current confusion as a distraction as they
negotiate within their ranks to nominate new judges.
Finally, Wayar opined that since the opposition departments'
Departmental Electoral Courts had already begun to reject
Evo's decrees, this action on the part of the National
Electoral Court allows for the possibility of negotiation
with the Departmental Electoral Courts to allow the
referendum on the constitution to go forward.


5. (C) A Peruvian diplomat told Emboff that in a discussion
with MAS Senator Antonio Peredo before Exeni's announcement,
Peredo confided that MAS leadership was coming to realize
that "the decrees went too far." Peredo said that the MAS
was determined to find a way to go ahead with the referendum
on the MAS constitution and with the elections, but that they
needed a way around the opposition departments' objections,
since the MAS wants to avoid a referendum that takes place
only in MAS departments.

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Chance for OAS to Review Voter Lists and Delay Referendum
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6. (C) At a meeting of foreign diplomats (French, Peruvian,
Brazilian, Swedish, Argentine, Dutch, German, Danish, and
U.S. DCMs and political counselors) attendees agreed that
regardless of National Electoral Court President Exeni's
loyalties, his public request for "UN, OAS, or EU" experts to
review Bolivia's voter rolls provides an opening for
international involvement. If, for example, the OAS takes
Exeni up on this request, it would almost certainly delay the
referenda, thereby providing time for yet another attempt at
dialogue. Some diplomats also noted that a review of the
voter rolls could serve to highlight problems with the August
10 recall referenda, also. Speaking for the EU, the French
diplomat present said that they have not received a formal
request, but would provide Exeni with names of "independent"
EU experts. The French diplomat added that, short of an
official request from the National Electoral Court, the EU
would not pursue this opening any further. Most diplomats
present agreed that no official request is likely, however,
since Evo and the MAS will doubtless block any attempt to
review the voter lists for fraud given that such a review
could call into question Evo's resounding after Evo's August
10 victory or delay the crucial vote for the MAS
constitution.

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OAS Weighs In Before Legal Questions Addressed
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7. (C) Two days before the National Electoral Court released
its decisions requiring laws from congress to convoke
elections and rejecting Evo's extra-legal use of decrees, the
OAS announced that it would send observers for the December
elections. According to Bolivian press, General Secretary
Insulza expressed his complete trust in Bolivian democracy
and pledged to send observers for the elections which Evo had
called by decree. Insulza also opined that "understanding is
the only way out for Bolivia, not only to approve the
constitution, not only to put limits on inequalities, but
also to be able to do it in peace and harmony." The OAS
press-release of August 29 added, "This is a government that
is disposed, as President Evo Morales said, to settle issues
with ballots rather than bullets. All who wish to vote will
vote, all who wish to express their opinion will express it."


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Opposition Groups Continue to Reject Decrees
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8. (C) Despite Insulza's optimistic hopes for peace and
understanding, the opposition departments of the eastern
media luna announced civil resistance measures to protest
Evo's use of decrees to circumvent congress and the
opposition. Chuquisaca Prefect Savina Cuellar called for an
autonomy referendum for November 30 while Chuquisaca civic
groups announced that they would boycott the December 7
elections. In Santa Cruz on August 29, a violent
confrontation between MAS sympathizers and radical crucenos
left seven injured (reftel). CONALDE, the grouping of
opposition department officials and civic leaders, has called
an emergency meeting for September 2 to define measures of
civil disobedience to confront the December 7 elections,
which they believe were illegally called by decree. CONALDE
also views the MAS constitution itself as illegal, since it
was approved without opposition participation and was not
written according to the rules of the Constituent Assembly.
CONALDE is also still demanding return of the IDH hydrocarbon
tax revenues.

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Ready or Not, Here Evo Stays
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9. (C) While the Electoral Courts and Legal Defense Minister
Arce square off over the details of the upcoming referendum
and elections, acting-President Garcia Linera has his eyes on
the prize: re-election of Evo and himself for up to ten more
years. If the MAS constitution is approved, Garcia Linera
stated that they would seek to hold new elections in 2009:
"...this will be the first renovation process, convoking
general elections for the president, vice-president, and
congress members." Under article 169 of the
most-recently-available version of the MAS constitution,
presidential terms are limited to five years and a president
may be re-elected only once. Evo and the MAS have always
maintained that Evo could have two more five-year terms,
based on the fact that his first election under the new MAS
constitution would not be a "re-election."
GOLDBERG