BOLIVIA: THE PLOT CURDLES

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001813

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER ASEC BL
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: THE PLOT CURDLES

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b,d


1. (C) Summary: Divisions between the national government
and the departmental (state) governments widened over the
weekend as President Evo Morales and his Movement Toward
Socialism (MAS) allies met to push forward their agenda for
"change" and the opposition departments continued to pursue
their goal of autonomy. Department-wide strikes, road
blockages, and economic embargoes are the opposition's
weapons of choice, while supporters of the central government
struck back with a series of calls for decrees to enable
progress on the MAS agenda while circumventing congress.
Santa Cruz's fledgling state legislature passed its first
laws and Santa Cruz Prefect Ruben Costas announced plans for
an "autonomous security entity" such as a state police force.
End summary.

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MAS Movement for Constitution
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2. (C) MAS-aligned groups met in Evo's coca-growing
stronghold on August 23, requesting that Evo issue supreme
degrees to call referenda on a number of key issues,
including the draft MAS constitution, redistribution of
hydrocarbon taxes based on "need", and election of
replacements for subprefects and recalled prefects. Although
the MAS has been tweaking the text of the draft MAS
constitution since the day it was approved (without
opposition participation) in Oruro in 2007, MAS-aligned
social groups have now announced their total denial of any
possible changes to the text, a clear rejection of compromise
with the opposition departments.


3. (C) As expected, Evo is using his 67 percent win in the
August 10 recall referendum as a de-facto vote for the draft
constitution. Although Evo has explicitly equated the two,
Vice President Garcia Linera was more circumspect on August
24, stating only, "Bolivia has given us the mandate to
continue...there has to be a political constitution that
seals these advances no matter what." (Comment: Although it
is still possible that Evo could pass the constitution by
decree without a referendum, he is less likely to push that
particular legal envelope as long as the polls suggest the
constitution will pass via referendum. End comment.) The
lower house of Congress voted August 21 to allow Vice
President Garcia Linera to nominate replacements for the
empty positions in the National Electoral Court and the
Constitutional Tribunal (nominations are usually put forward
by the lower house as a whole.) The new appointments are
expected within weeks, likely giving the MAS a new
stranglehold over both bodies and further weakening any
semblance of checks and balances in the process of passing a
new constitution.


4. (C) The draft constitution, in its last publicly-seen
form, allowed for two consecutive reelections of the
president. Obviously confident of his support among expat
Bolivians, Evo has asked MAS senators to go on hunger strike
to demand voting rights for Bolivians resident in other
countries. (Note: Surveys estimate that roughly ten percent
of the Bolivian population lives outside of Bolivia; under
current law, they are not able to vote. There has, as yet,
been no discussion of the logistics of registering these
far-flung Bolivians, but experience with the visa-requirement
for U.S. citizens suggests that Bolivian embassies and
consulates will not be able to handle a rapid influx of
voters. End note.)

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Economic Warfare
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5. (C) Opposition-led regions have reacted strongly to the
prospect of a fast-tracked constitution. In the Chaco
hydrocarbon region, opposition-aligned groups are blocking
roads, and there are rumors of the possibility of pipeline
sabotage. The central government passed a decree allowing it
to deduct money directly from the prefectures' accounts in
the case of any attack on gas infrastructure, and Evo has
ordered the Bolivian military to protect hydrocarbon
installations. Evo also threatened to issue a decree
reassigning hydrocarbon tax income to municipalities,
indigenous groups and "needy regions"--a direct blow at the
prefects, who are still protesting the 2007 decrease in their
hydrocarbon tax incomes.


6. (C) Meat producers in opposition departments have stopped
exports to La Paz, while the central government has promised
to find other sources for meat (currently prices have
increased but there is no widespread scarcity.) The
opposition departments are meeting on August 25 in Tarija to
discuss further measures they can take to block the MAS's
decrees; road blocks and strikes are expected.

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One Country, Two Systems
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7. (C) Santa Cruz's new departmental legislative assembly has
approved five laws and fifteen decrees in the three months
since the department voted in favor of its autonomy statute.
In reaction to the violent clashes surrounding the August 10
referenda (including an attack by Santa Cruz Youth Union
members against high-ranking National Police officers),
Prefect Costas suggested that the prefecturate will promote
the creation of an "autonomous security entity" to patrol the
city of Santa Cruz and investigate crime. (Note: Under
Bolivian law, there is only one official police force, the
Bolivian National Police. Large cities have sometimes formed
security forces, but these do not have the official standing
of a police force. End note.)


8. (C) As if to highlight why the opposition departments
might wish to form their own security forces, Government
Minister Alfredo Rada announced on August 23 that he will not
order the National Police to unblock roads in Sucre, where
MAS-aligned campesino groups are protesting against
Chuquisaca Prefect Savina Cuellar. Describing these
blockades as an "internal conflict," Rada said, "It is a
matter than concerns the prefecture, and I am sure that
Prefect Cuellar will know how to solve the problem." The
central government previously decided not to provide National
Police protection during the autonomy votes in the opposition
departments.

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Comment
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9. (C) As Bolivia becomes increasingly divided, Evo's sights
are set firmly on the future: a new constitution and his own
re-election. His short-lived rhetoric about compromise
already forgotten, Evo seems intent on continuing what he
does best, campaigning for "change" which, by MAS definition,
means Evo. The opposition, meanwhile, is faced with the
possibility of losing what tenuous autonomy they have managed
to achieve, and both sides are digging in for a prolonged and
possibly-violent face offs. End comment.

GOLDBERG