BOLIVIA: CLASHES IN SANTA CRUZ, DIVISIONS WIDEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001775 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PINR BL SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: CLASHES IN SANTA CRUZ, DIVISIONS WIDEN Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b,d ¶1. (C) Five opposition departments (states) have called for a one-day strike on August 19 to demand the return of hydrocarbon tax revenues from the national treasury to departmental coffers. Violence is possible in various areas of the country, as Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) aligned peasant groups threaten counter-strikes in Chuquisaca and Santa Cruz. National and Santa Cruz leaders are inciting their followers, with Santa Cruz Prefect Ruben Costas calling President Evo Morales a "murderer" after the police gassed handicapped demonstrators. Government Minister Alfredo Rada subsequently announced legal proceedings against Costas for the name-calling while himself calling PODEMOS congressmember Wilfredo Anez a "delinquent" and a narco-trafficker ¶2. (C) The National Police has declared that it will remain in quarters during the strike unless ordered out. After a meeting on August 15 with the Santa Cruz civic committee, Santa Cruz National Police Commander Wilge Obleas and his assistant were attacked by youths armed with sticks and forced to flee. Prefect Costas asked for the National Police in Santa Cruz to be put under state control, a possibility Evo roundly rejected. Government Minister Rada announced that military police have been sent to protect public institutions in Santa Cruz. Defense Minister Walker San Miguel likened the August 19 strike to the August 21 military coup in 1971 but added that the central government is still open for dialogue. ¶3. (C) Our contacts with the airlines inform us that air travel through Santa Cruz is scheduled as normal on August 19, and taxis in the city have been given special permits that will allow them to be on the streets despite the day-long strike. Portugal Quispe, a civic leader of the MAS-aligned neighborhood Plan Tres Mil in Santa Cruz, announced that his neighborhood will not comply with the call for a strike: "We are prepared with sticks. If anyone is going to bother us, we're going to respond. Plan Tres Mil is a Bolivian territory that sides with President Evo Morales." The president of the opposition-aligned Santa Cruz Youth Group, David Sejas, accused the central government of laying the groundwork for violence on August 19: "The MAS organizes militias like those that were in Santa Cruz on August 15, violently attacking businesses, beating bystanders, breaking windows, and other vandalism...what worries us is how the government is looking to pay people and is offering (between 75 and 15 dollars) to commit outrages..." ¶4. (C) Comment: Both the government and the regional opposition have publicly blamed their opponents for any violence that may occur. With emotions running high and rhetoric heated, there is a heightened likelihood of isolated incidents of violence, which could spiral into city- or department-wide clashes. With Evo announcing plans to proceed with ratifying the MAS draft constitution (either through supreme decree or by some kind of referendum),the opposition prefects may feel compelled to act so as not to lose their chance at autonomy. Despite the Defense Minister's insinuations and last week's call (by the mayor of Santa Cruz) for military intervention, post still does not anticipate that the military will become involved in what looks to be an ugly confrontation with no clear winners. Post convened an EAC August 18 to review the security posture of mission offices and personnel in the strike-affected departments. We have issued a warden message. End comment. GOLDBERG