BOLIVIA: RECALL REFERENDA SITREP #3 1830 EDT

UNCLAS LA PAZ 001709 SIPDIS PLEASE PASS TO S/ES; OPS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC KDEM BL SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: RECALL REFERENDA SITREP #3 1830 EDT August 10, 2008 SITUATION REPORT. This is third and last situation report today. ¶1. (U) Voting closed at 1800, and while official counts are not expected for many days, unofficial polls indicate that President Morales will continue in his post, with vote projections at about 60 percent approval nationwide. According to some exit polls, Morales lost the vote in four departments (that is, a majority of voters in those departments voted against him) and was too close to call in another, highlighting the regional nature of his popularity. All numbers are unofficial and likely to change. ¶2. (U) It is still unclear how the referenda will be applied to the prefects: the National Electoral Court maintains that prefects will be recalled if 50 percent plus one of voters vote against them, while the President stated today that this compromise formula may not be followed. Thus far, it seems that the four Media Luna opposition prefects survived (Santa Cruz, Pando, Beni, Tarija),while opposition prefects Manfred Reyes Villa (Cochabamba) and Jose Luis Paredes (La Paz) appear to have been recalled. MAS prefect Albert Luis Aguilar (Oruro) also appears to have been recalled. ¶3. (U) Television station Unitel reports that in the altiplano town of Achacachi (a Red Poncho and MAS stronghold),MAS officials showed people how to vote yes for Morales (leading elderly or illiterate voters) and allegedly some ballots were pre-marked. An official in the prefecturate of Cochabamba has also alleged that ballots in some Cochabamba districts were pre-marked in favor of Morales and against opposition prefect Reyes Villa. ¶4. (U) Post will report more detailed results tomorrow. GOLDBERG