BOLIVIA: RECALL REFERENDA DOUBTS AND CAMPAIGNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001632 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: RECALL REFERENDA DOUBTS AND CAMPAIGNS Classified By: Acting EcoPol Chief Brian Quigley reasons 1.4 b,d ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The fate of the currently-scheduled August recall referenda (for President Morales, Vice President Garcia Linera, and the prefects) continues to be in doubt. On July 22 the Constitutional Tribunal's only sitting judge recommended a delay which the National Electoral Court rejected. Now three of the nine departmental Electoral Courts have come out against the referenda, warning that the implementing law is so flawed as to be undemocratic and attempting to absolve themselves of responsibility should the referenda go forward. Meanwhile, campaigning has begun, with President Morales accusing the USG of financing TV spots against him. End summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Departmental Electoral Courts Raise Concerns - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) A day after the Constitutional Tribunal's only sitting judge announced on July 22 that the referenda should be delayed, National Electoral Court President Jose Luis Exeni declared that the referenda would go forward. The National Court's vice president, Jeronimo Pinheiro, complained July 26 that Exeni had not consulted him on this decision, and Pinheiro declared his intention to requires a suspension of the referenda. The National Electoral Court met on July 28 and decided to continue with the referenda, with Pinheiro as the dissenting vote. ¶3. (SBU) As of July 28, officials of the departmental Electoral Courts of Beni, Chuquisaca, and Pando have called for the referenda to be put on hold until the implementing law's problems could be addressed. The Electoral Courts of Santa Cruz, Tarija, and Cochabamba are expected to follow suit. After the National Electoral Court's decision of July 28, the Santa Cruz electoral court called for all departmental courts to meet to reach a departmental consensus before a scheduled meeting with the National Court on July ¶30. The departmental courts of Potosi and Oruro have announced that they will follow the lead of the National Court. At issue is the inclusion of both percentages and absolute numbers of votes (based on the 2005 elections) to determine the results of the August 10 referenda: as the court officials point out, if the vote reaches a required percentage of voters but not the required number of absolute votes (if there is high abstention, for example) the court officials will not know how to rule on the vote. Since the 2005 elections, the voter rolls have increased by almost a million voters, which could mean that the absolute number of votes is reached even if the percentage of voters is not. ¶4. (SBU) Pando Electoral Court President Elias Valdez also raised the issue that prefects can be voted out with less than 50 percent of the vote. According to the implementing law passed in May 2008, officials can be removed from office if the votes against their continued mandate exceed the votes that the candidates received in the 2005 elections. Since many prefects won with pluralities--because more than two candidates ran--officials could lose the recall referendum even if a majority of voters vote in their favor on August ¶10. As Valdez put it, "If Prefect Leopoldo Fernandez (of Pando) wins with 51 percent but there is 49 percent opposed to him, he'll be out." In order for the remaining prefects (excluding Chuquisaca, which elected a new Prefect in June 2008) to lose the referendum, only the following percentages and votes would be needed against them: Beni 44.63 percent, 46,482 votes Cochabamba 47.61 percent, 246,417 votes Chuquisaca 42.30 percent, 66,999 votes La Paz 37.98 percent, 361,055 votes Oruro 40.95 percent, 63,630 votes Pando 48.03 percent, 9,958 votes Potosi 40.69 percent, 79,710 votes Santa Cruz 47.87 percent, 299,730 votes Tarija 45.65 percent, 64,098 votes These percentages and numbers of votes are stated in the implementing law. - - - - - - - - - - - On the Campaign Trail - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) On July 28, the private company Publimarket released a study showing that in a ten day period, the government and MAS-aligned groups spent USD725,580 on television advertisements supporting Evo Morales. According to the study, this figure does not include pro-Evo advertisements on the government TV station, which during that time period broadcast 488 minutes of pro-Evo advertisements at an estimated cost of USD175,710. Pro-Evo advertisements in private and governmental TV outlets thus reached three hours and forty minutes a day. Reportedly the equivalent of 28 pages of print ads in 6 national publications added an additional cost of USD504,000. Radio spots were not considered by the Publimarket study. ¶6. (SBU) Despite the confusion and contradictions surrounding the August 10 referenda, campaigning increased on the weekend of July 26/27. Following a graffiti and poster campaign fronted by the Mayor of La Paz's left-aligned "Without Fear" party, President Morales's Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party began street-campaigning on July 27. Trucks with loudspeakers and cars plastered in "Evo Si" posters circled the streets of La Paz, while MAS members handed out information in city centers. Officials from the Ministries of Finance and Labor told the press that they had been ordered to participate in the MAS campaign. Another participant told the press that the caravan drivers were being given "participation chits;" these chits are generally either redeemable for payment or used to avoid punishment by social groups who order their members to participate in political activities. The pro-Evo campaign has been active in El Alto for over two weeks, although the intensity increased on July 27. Villages in the altiplano report receiving pro-Evo materials such as posters, and one local village leader told Emboff that the materials had not been requested and that the source (and funding) of the materials was not clear. ¶7. (SBU) In Santa Cruz, Prefect Ruben Costas' supporters took to the streets in a vehicle caravan urging voters to support Costas as a way of consolidating autonomy. MAS supporters in Santa Cruz confined their pro-Evo, anti-Costas campaigning to the MAS-aligned neighborhood of La Ramada. In Cochabamba, groups protested against the referenda in general. ¶8. (C) Vice President Garcia Linera called on social groups to defend the recall referendum. In response, social group leaders declared their support. Isaac Avalos, head of the MAS-cloned CSUTCB (the original CSUTCB, a peasant farmer's union, is headed by Rufo Calle, who has fallen out of favor with the MAS) declared that his organization would "take the departmental electoral courts." President Morales has also labeled the departmental electoral courts questioning the referenda as "anti-democratic" and called anyone opposing the referenda "traitors." On July 27, Morales told a group of reporters that the USG is financing the political opposition's TV spots against him. - - - - Comment - - - - ¶9. (C) Legal uncertainties (and suspicions of fraud) are increasing by the day, raising doubts as to whether the August 10 referenda will take place. If President Morales wants the referenda to go forward (most polls show him staying in office but not with the 54 percent that elected him),it is likely that they will in some form, since Morales has been willing to go forward despite questions of constitutionality before. What remains in doubt is the level of participation across the country and whether a valid vote will be possible if departments decline to participate or participate only nominally. Although President Morales' current campaign does not seem strongly based on anti-American rhetoric, should he need the popularity boost his anti-USG rhetoric is likely to worsen. End comment. GOLDBERG