BOLIVIA: RECALL REFERENDA DOUBTS AND CAMPAIGNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001632

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: RECALL REFERENDA DOUBTS AND CAMPAIGNS

Classified By: Acting EcoPol Chief Brian Quigley reasons 1.4 b,d


1. (SBU) Summary: The fate of the currently-scheduled August
recall referenda (for President Morales, Vice President
Garcia Linera, and the prefects) continues to be in doubt.
On July 22 the Constitutional Tribunal's only sitting judge
recommended a delay which the National Electoral Court
rejected. Now three of the nine departmental Electoral
Courts have come out against the referenda, warning that the
implementing law is so flawed as to be undemocratic and
attempting to absolve themselves of responsibility should the
referenda go forward. Meanwhile, campaigning has begun, with
President Morales accusing the USG of financing TV spots
against him. End summary.

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Departmental Electoral Courts Raise Concerns
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2. (SBU) A day after the Constitutional Tribunal's only
sitting judge announced on July 22 that the referenda should
be delayed, National Electoral Court President Jose Luis
Exeni declared that the referenda would go forward. The
National Court's vice president, Jeronimo Pinheiro,
complained July 26 that Exeni had not consulted him on this
decision, and Pinheiro declared his intention to requires a
suspension of the referenda. The National Electoral Court
met on July 28 and decided to continue with the referenda,
with Pinheiro as the dissenting vote.


3. (SBU) As of July 28, officials of the departmental
Electoral Courts of Beni, Chuquisaca, and Pando have called
for the referenda to be put on hold until the implementing
law's problems could be addressed. The Electoral Courts of
Santa Cruz, Tarija, and Cochabamba are expected to follow
suit. After the National Electoral Court's decision of July
28, the Santa Cruz electoral court called for all
departmental courts to meet to reach a departmental consensus
before a scheduled meeting with the National Court on July

30. The departmental courts of Potosi and Oruro have
announced that they will follow the lead of the National
Court. At issue is the inclusion of both percentages and
absolute numbers of votes (based on the 2005 elections) to
determine the results of the August 10 referenda: as the
court officials point out, if the vote reaches a required
percentage of voters but not the required number of absolute
votes (if there is high abstention, for example) the court
officials will not know how to rule on the vote. Since the
2005 elections, the voter rolls have increased by almost a
million voters, which could mean that the absolute number of
votes is reached even if the percentage of voters is not.


4. (SBU) Pando Electoral Court President Elias Valdez also
raised the issue that prefects can be voted out with less
than 50 percent of the vote. According to the implementing
law passed in May 2008, officials can be removed from office
if the votes against their continued mandate exceed the votes
that the candidates received in the 2005 elections. Since
many prefects won with pluralities--because more than two
candidates ran--officials could lose the recall referendum
even if a majority of voters vote in their favor on August

10. As Valdez put it, "If Prefect Leopoldo Fernandez (of
Pando) wins with 51 percent but there is 49 percent opposed
to him, he'll be out." In order for the remaining prefects
(excluding Chuquisaca, which elected a new Prefect in June
2008) to lose the referendum, only the following percentages
and votes would be needed against them:

Beni 44.63 percent, 46,482 votes
Cochabamba 47.61 percent, 246,417 votes
Chuquisaca 42.30 percent, 66,999 votes
La Paz 37.98 percent, 361,055 votes
Oruro 40.95 percent, 63,630 votes
Pando 48.03 percent, 9,958 votes
Potosi 40.69 percent, 79,710 votes
Santa Cruz 47.87 percent, 299,730 votes
Tarija 45.65 percent, 64,098 votes

These percentages and numbers of votes are stated in the
implementing law.

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On the Campaign Trail
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5. (SBU) On July 28, the private company Publimarket released
a study showing that in a ten day period, the government and
MAS-aligned groups spent USD725,580 on television
advertisements supporting Evo Morales. According to the
study, this figure does not include pro-Evo advertisements on
the government TV station, which during that time period
broadcast 488 minutes of pro-Evo advertisements at an
estimated cost of USD175,710. Pro-Evo advertisements in
private and governmental TV outlets thus reached three hours
and forty minutes a day. Reportedly the equivalent of 28
pages of print ads in 6 national publications added an
additional cost of USD504,000. Radio spots were not
considered by the Publimarket study.


6. (SBU) Despite the confusion and contradictions surrounding
the August 10 referenda, campaigning increased on the weekend
of July 26/27. Following a graffiti and poster campaign
fronted by the Mayor of La Paz's left-aligned "Without Fear"
party, President Morales's Movement Toward Socialism (MAS)
party began street-campaigning on July 27. Trucks with
loudspeakers and cars plastered in "Evo Si" posters circled
the streets of La Paz, while MAS members handed out
information in city centers. Officials from the Ministries
of Finance and Labor told the press that they had been
ordered to participate in the MAS campaign. Another
participant told the press that the caravan drivers were
being given "participation chits;" these chits are generally
either redeemable for payment or used to avoid punishment by
social groups who order their members to participate in
political activities. The pro-Evo campaign has been active
in El Alto for over two weeks, although the intensity
increased on July 27. Villages in the altiplano report
receiving pro-Evo materials such as posters, and one local
village leader told Emboff that the materials had not been
requested and that the source (and funding) of the materials
was not clear.


7. (SBU) In Santa Cruz, Prefect Ruben Costas' supporters took
to the streets in a vehicle caravan urging voters to support
Costas as a way of consolidating autonomy. MAS supporters in
Santa Cruz confined their pro-Evo, anti-Costas campaigning to
the MAS-aligned neighborhood of La Ramada. In Cochabamba,
groups protested against the referenda in general.


8. (C) Vice President Garcia Linera called on social groups
to defend the recall referendum. In response, social group
leaders declared their support. Isaac Avalos, head of the
MAS-cloned CSUTCB (the original CSUTCB, a peasant farmer's
union, is headed by Rufo Calle, who has fallen out of favor
with the MAS) declared that his organization would "take the
departmental electoral courts." President Morales has also
labeled the departmental electoral courts questioning the
referenda as "anti-democratic" and called anyone opposing the
referenda "traitors." On July 27, Morales told a group of
reporters that the USG is financing the political
opposition's TV spots against him.

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Comment
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9. (C) Legal uncertainties (and suspicions of fraud) are
increasing by the day, raising doubts as to whether the
August 10 referenda will take place. If President Morales
wants the referenda to go forward (most polls show him
staying in office but not with the 54 percent that elected
him),it is likely that they will in some form, since Morales
has been willing to go forward despite questions of
constitutionality before. What remains in doubt is the level
of participation across the country and whether a valid vote
will be possible if departments decline to participate or
participate only nominally. Although President Morales'
current campaign does not seem strongly based on
anti-American rhetoric, should he need the popularity boost
his anti-USG rhetoric is likely to worsen. End comment.
GOLDBERG