CHUQUISACA ELECTION: EVO TO LOSE AGAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001441 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/28/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM BL SUBJECT: CHUQUISACA ELECTION: EVO TO LOSE AGAIN REF: A. LA PAZ 1258 ¶B. LA PAZ 1243 ¶C. LA PAZ 1189 ¶D. 07 LA PAZ 3242 ¶E. 07 LA PAZ 3209 ¶F. 07 LA PAZ 3189 Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Residents of Chuquisaca Department (state) will vote for a new prefect (governor) June 29. Polling data suggests a convincing win by Savina Cuellar, an ex-member of the ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party who is running with opposition support. The opposition is focusing on opposition to MAS rule, inflation, and promoting the city of Sucre's claims to full status as the national capital. MAS forces are focusing on racism issues to appeal to indigenous voters and campaigning with a series of land distribution events and project announcements, often led by President Evo Morales. Morales has promised the government will abide by the results and "hopes" for a peaceful election. In this most-polarized department of an increasingly polarized country, however, we expect at least scattered violence as pro- and anti-government forces square off near voting centers. End Summary. Polls: And the Winner is... -------------- ¶2. (U) Polls unanimously show opposition-aligned Savina Cuellar winning a June 29 election for Chuquisaca Department Prefect (state governor). A Fides poll published June 25 in leading daily La Razon tracked Cuellar at 70 percent, with pro-government candidate Walter Valda at 18 percent. Earlier June polls tracked Cuellar at 54 percent (Santa Cruz daily El Deber),57 percent (Equipos More/El Nuevo Dia),and 63 percent (Ispos). Valda has discounted the polls as "false and fabricated" to confuse the public, and continued to refer to the election as "the day of victory." ¶3. (U) The Fides poll also found 35 percent of Chuquisaquenos considered President Evo Morales to be Chuquisaca's gravest enemy, with 10 percent bestowing that moniker on the strongly pro-opposition Santa Cruz Department. According to the Ipsos poll, 68 percent of Chuquisaquenos disapprove of the Morales Administration, with 19 percent in favor. The same poll shows 68 percent would vote against Morales in a planned August 10 recall referendum. Capital Issue Divides MAS -------------- ¶4. (U) Cuellar, an indigenous Quechua, was elected to the Constitutional Assembly on the ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) ticket, but quit over the federal government's refusal to back demands in Chuquisaca that Sucre, currently the permanent home to the Bolivian Supreme Court, should become the full national capital. Cuellar is running under the Alliance of the Inter-Institutional Committee, a pro-capital, pro-autonomy, Sucre-based group affiliated with the national opposition. Her main opponent, Valda, is popular in rural communities with a base of pro-Morales, indigenous groups. Felipe Cruz, representing Potosi Mayor Rene Joaquino's efforts to project his "third option" Social Alliance party beyond the borders of neighboring Potosi Department, is a distant third. ¶5. (C) Until the issue of full-capital status for Sucre became an issue at the Constitutional Assembly in August and erupted in violence in November, Chuquisaca had been fairly comfortably in the MAS camp, with the notable exception of Sucre (refs c and d). The capital issue, a sensitive topic for Chuquisaquenos since La Paz took over as the seat of government in 1899, cuts across party lines. The issue was embraced by the opposition and caused many formally MAS-aligned leaders to split with the party. Even Valda has had to modify his position on the capital issue to remain competitive, assuring he would support a referendum on the issue, although he conceded neither the Morales government nor the MAS shared his opinion. Central to Cuellar's campaign are calls for both a national referendum on the capital issue and a departmental referendum on increased autonomy from the central government. What's At Stake -------------- ¶6. (C) Chuquisaca has been governed by the appointed Vice Prefect (Lieutenant Governor) Ariel Iriarte since Prefect David Sanchez's flight to Peru in November. Sanchez feared repercussions from both government and opposition forces after he unsuccessfully tried to find a middle-ground during violent Constitutional Assembly sessions November 23-24 and his residence was ransacked (refs e and f). Although Sanchez was "MAS light," he was instrumental as a counter to Sucre's strongly pro-autonomy, pro-opposition city leaders. With only three of nine prefects aligned with the government, the MAS has campaigned hard for Valda. Opposition prefects have opined the election will be key to breaking the political stalemate with the government. Tapping Morales' Cult of Personality -------------- ¶7. (C) Morales himself has been canvassing Chuquisaca during the past week, distributing land titles, announcing new projects, and ensuring the completion of more than 150 Venezuelan-funded "Bolivia Changes, Evo Delivers" projects. Although Valda has teamed with Morales at several rural campaign events, he seemed to distance himself from Morales June 26 by rejecting Morales was campaigning on his behalf. Valda instead insisted Morales was in Chuquisaca to attend to the people's needs, insinuating his presence in the department was coincidental. ¶8. (C) Morales has avoided Chuquisaca's capital city of Sucre since he was denied entry into the city May 24 by opposition protesters standing off against police, military, and groups of peasant farmers trucked in to support Morales. In an unfortunate and highly-publicized side event, a handful of opposition supporters paraded Morales supporters to a public square and forced them to knell and take their shirts off. Valda supporters have used the event as a campaign device to link the opposition and by ironic extension Cuellar (herself indigenous) to broad themes of racism, elitism, and exclusion of indigenous Bolivians. Chuquisaca as August 10 Bellwether? -------------- ¶9. (C) The Chuquisaca election has added significance as a momentum generator as the last election before the August 10 recall referendum on Morales and prefects. El Alto City Councilwoman Bertha Acarapi told PolOffs June 25 that the Chuquisaca election could be a bellwether. Given the amount of time and resources the MAS had devoted to Valda's campaign and previous MAS strength in rural Chuquisaca, she opined that "if they can't win there it will look bad for the (recall) referendum." Acarapi said the election is being watched closely by altiplano moderates considering their posture for the August 10 election to see "how strong Evo is and how the government reacts." She said most indigenous social groups are less interested in "conviction" than on who wins after the dust settles. Although a poor showing by the MAS June 29 is unlikely to result in altiplano leaders campaigning against Morales, it would impact how hard and with what resources they campaign for him. Although there was little doubt Acarapi added that the May 24 march of Morales supporters had angered "the entire altiplano," including herself. She said after June 29, the MAS would focus in earnest on the recall referendum, packaging the May 24 events as symbolic of opposition racism and that U.S. "conspiracy" and our perceived protection of former high-ranking Bolivian officials "would be the other target." Prospects for Peaceful Election -------------- ¶10. (C) Unlike the four departmental autonomy referendums of the past two months, this election is endorsed by the central government, obligating government supporters to participate instead of sabotaging voting. State security forces are also obliged to take a more proactive role to ensure access to voting and security of voters, although their capacity to do this remains dubious. Morales said June 27 the government would accept the results and hoped for a transparent election "without violence." Minister of the Presidency Juan Ramon Quintana called for full participation and expressed confidence the elections would not "repeat incidents of intolerance" perpetrated by the opposition May 24. Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Despite their best efforts and use of Evo as frontman, it would appear the government is headed for its fifth electoral loss in two months. Unlike the autonomy referendums, the government can't hide behind legal process arguments or low voter turnout as a means to discount the results of the Chuquisaca election. The government's "hope" for a peaceful election is not entirely reassuring, as it implies they do not fully understand that election security is their responsibility. ¶12. (C) Pending a sufficiently peaceful and logistically sound election June 29, the opposition should head into the August 10 recall referendum with a bit of a bounce from the Chuquisaca election. However, it should not be overstated as a predictor for August 10. Issues that resonated for Cuellar in Chuquisaca, particularly capital status, will not resonate for the opposition beyond Chuquisaca and will hurt them in La Paz Department, while voters in the altiplano continue to seethe over the racist overtones of the May 24 "parade of shame." End Comment. URS