NEW EU POLICY ADDS TO BOLIVIA'S MIGRATION CRISIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 001427

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2018
TAGS: ASEC BL PREF PGOV ECON
SUBJECT: NEW EU POLICY ADDS TO BOLIVIA'S MIGRATION CRISIS

Classified By: ECOPOL Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4(b),(d.)

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SUMMARY
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1. (U) The EU's June 18th decision to require its members
to either regularize or expel undocumented immigrants hit
hard in Bolivia, a country with around a quarter of its
population abroad and 500,000 of these migrants currently
residing in Europe. The Bolivian Government responded with
threats of counter-measures, referring to the decision as a
violation of human rights and calling it the "directive of
shame." The announcement of the new policy coincided aptly
with a World Bank seminar on migration hosted in La Paz,
addressing the costs and benefits of migration. While the
MAS government insists on the rights of Bolivians to live
abroad, the conference seemed to conclude that the relief
migration provides to Bolivia's economic woes in the
short-run is outweighed by long-run costs to development and
social structures. END SUMMARY.

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The EU's "Directive of Shame"
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2. (U) The new EU law could affect an estimated 280,000
undocumented Bolivians living in Spain, as well as other
undocumented Bolivian migrants throughout the EU. Given this
considerable impact, the Bolivian Government immediately
rejected the law publicly as a violation of human rights and
promised to work to have it overturned. President Morales
threatened to block EU relations with the Community of Andean
Nations and impose a visa for EU citizens if the law were
ratified.

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Migration: The Good, The Bad, and The Money
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3. (U) The return of migrants to Bolivia may not merit such
a strong negative reaction. On the positive side, migration
helps to alleviate high levels of unemployment and generates
remittances, which made up 10 percent of the country's GDP
(or over 1 billion dollars) in 2007, and brought in three
times more income than did foreign direct investment. This
income is an important factor in providing for basic needs
such as food, shelter, and education in many communities.
The return of migrants from European countries would greatly
decrease this source of employment and income. However, the
high level of migration may be a negative factor for
Bolivia's development in the long run. Migration has led to
the absence of a generation, with youth making up 70 percent
of migrants. It has also led to a drain on the work force and
skilled labor pool, as well as the fragmentation of family
structures. The large percent of Bolivia's GDP generated by
remittances are private funds that generally do not generate
employment or development. Without domestic job creation or
programs to support return, whole families eventually
migrate, removing the benefit of the remittances.

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It's All Capitalism's Fault
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4. (SBU) At the World Bank seminar on migration, Foreign
Minister, David Choquehuanca expressed the opinion that the
issue stems from inequities in society caused by a capitalist
system, and that its solution requires heightened
consciousness in developed countries. Choquehuanca has also
publicly pointed out that the Spanish built their empire on
Bolivia's silver and never suffered any consequences for it,
therefore Europe should now allow Bolivians to stay as a

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measure of retribution. Vice Foreign Minister, Hugo
Fernandez, admitted to a lack of government preparedness to
address the issue, but maintained that migration is
unavoidable, spinning the cause of migration not as Bolivian
poverty, but rather dreams of riches abroad. At the seminar,
representatives from Mexico and Ecuador gave examples of
effective government programs to transfer remittances at
lower costs, use remittances to provide credit and encourage
investment, facilitate the return of migrants, and institute
cyclical migration programs with foreign governments.
Fernandez admitted that the Bolivian Government needs to
study the issue in order to better support its migrant
community.


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Comment
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5. (C) Fulfillment of President Morales' threats to the EU
would cause a loss of jobs and income that could further
aggravate the migration problem. As the majority of tourists
in Bolivia come from Europe, imposition of a visa could
adversely affect tourism and an estimated million jobs
created by this industry. Moreover, damaging bilateral
relations with the EU would further isolate this government
internationally. Instead of implementing constructive
programs of return and domestic development, the government's
rhetoric suggests that it will continue to encourage
migration as an economic solution and attack the
classification of "illegal" immigrants as a violation of
human rights. END COMMENT.
URS