NEW EU POLICY ADDS TO BOLIVIA'S MIGRATION CRISIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 001427 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2018 TAGS: ASEC BL PREF PGOV ECON SUBJECT: NEW EU POLICY ADDS TO BOLIVIA'S MIGRATION CRISIS Classified By: ECOPOL Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4(b),(d.) - - - - SUMMARY - - - - ¶1. (U) The EU's June 18th decision to require its members to either regularize or expel undocumented immigrants hit hard in Bolivia, a country with around a quarter of its population abroad and 500,000 of these migrants currently residing in Europe. The Bolivian Government responded with threats of counter-measures, referring to the decision as a violation of human rights and calling it the "directive of shame." The announcement of the new policy coincided aptly with a World Bank seminar on migration hosted in La Paz, addressing the costs and benefits of migration. While the MAS government insists on the rights of Bolivians to live abroad, the conference seemed to conclude that the relief migration provides to Bolivia's economic woes in the short-run is outweighed by long-run costs to development and social structures. END SUMMARY. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The EU's "Directive of Shame" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (U) The new EU law could affect an estimated 280,000 undocumented Bolivians living in Spain, as well as other undocumented Bolivian migrants throughout the EU. Given this considerable impact, the Bolivian Government immediately rejected the law publicly as a violation of human rights and promised to work to have it overturned. President Morales threatened to block EU relations with the Community of Andean Nations and impose a visa for EU citizens if the law were ratified. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Migration: The Good, The Bad, and The Money - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (U) The return of migrants to Bolivia may not merit such a strong negative reaction. On the positive side, migration helps to alleviate high levels of unemployment and generates remittances, which made up 10 percent of the country's GDP (or over 1 billion dollars) in 2007, and brought in three times more income than did foreign direct investment. This income is an important factor in providing for basic needs such as food, shelter, and education in many communities. The return of migrants from European countries would greatly decrease this source of employment and income. However, the high level of migration may be a negative factor for Bolivia's development in the long run. Migration has led to the absence of a generation, with youth making up 70 percent of migrants. It has also led to a drain on the work force and skilled labor pool, as well as the fragmentation of family structures. The large percent of Bolivia's GDP generated by remittances are private funds that generally do not generate employment or development. Without domestic job creation or programs to support return, whole families eventually migrate, removing the benefit of the remittances. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - It's All Capitalism's Fault - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (SBU) At the World Bank seminar on migration, Foreign Minister, David Choquehuanca expressed the opinion that the issue stems from inequities in society caused by a capitalist system, and that its solution requires heightened consciousness in developed countries. Choquehuanca has also publicly pointed out that the Spanish built their empire on Bolivia's silver and never suffered any consequences for it, therefore Europe should now allow Bolivians to stay as a LA PAZ 00001427 002 OF 002 measure of retribution. Vice Foreign Minister, Hugo Fernandez, admitted to a lack of government preparedness to address the issue, but maintained that migration is unavoidable, spinning the cause of migration not as Bolivian poverty, but rather dreams of riches abroad. At the seminar, representatives from Mexico and Ecuador gave examples of effective government programs to transfer remittances at lower costs, use remittances to provide credit and encourage investment, facilitate the return of migrants, and institute cyclical migration programs with foreign governments. Fernandez admitted that the Bolivian Government needs to study the issue in order to better support its migrant community. - - - - Comment - - - - ¶5. (C) Fulfillment of President Morales' threats to the EU would cause a loss of jobs and income that could further aggravate the migration problem. As the majority of tourists in Bolivia come from Europe, imposition of a visa could adversely affect tourism and an estimated million jobs created by this industry. Moreover, damaging bilateral relations with the EU would further isolate this government internationally. Instead of implementing constructive programs of return and domestic development, the government's rhetoric suggests that it will continue to encourage migration as an economic solution and attack the classification of "illegal" immigrants as a violation of human rights. END COMMENT. URS