BOLIVIA: ON RECALL, EVO LINKS USG AND INFLATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001412 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: ON RECALL, EVO LINKS USG AND INFLATION REF: LA PAZ 1082 Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer reasons 1.4 b,d ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Five opposition prefects (Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando, Tarija, and Cochabamba) have rejected the recall vote currently scheduled for August 10. In an interview after Tarija's June 22 landslide "Yes" autonomy vote, the prefects called into question the legality of the scheduled recall referendum. Meanwhile, President Evo Morales has announced that he will use "social pressure" to ensure that the recall vote goes ahead. At a gathering in Cochabamba marking the start of his recall campaign, Evo again alleged conspiracy on the part of the USG, blaming "north-American imperialism" and traitors of the right for food scarcities and high inflation. End summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Recall Referendum? Evo "Si", Prefects "No" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) On Wednesday June 25 the Bolivian government is expected to officially launch its campaign to ratify Evo's tenure in the August 10 recall referendum. On May 8, Bolivia's opposition-controlled Senate passed a law requiring a recall referendum on the president and Bolivia's nine prefects. The Senate had before May 8 rejected the recall referendum law passed by Evo's Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party in the lower house, because the law was widely viewed as overly favorable to the President. Under the law, the president and prefects will have their mandates terminated should the "No" vote exceed--both in percentage AND number of votes--the votes cast in their favor in the December 2005 election. (Note: 1,544,374 eligible voters chose Evo in December 2005, 53.74 percent of vote cast. Therefore, for Evo to be recalled under the May 8 law, 53.75 percent of voters would have to vote against him and the total number of "No" votes cast would have to equal or exceed 1,544,375. End note.) ¶3. (C) Because of the percentages and total numbers of votes written into the recall law, Evo has a distinct advantage over many of the prefects, none of whom won with an absolute majority (i.e., all of whom will be able to be recalled with less than a majority.) Most polls suggest that Evo will survive the recall referendum, while a number of prefects are at risk. At the time the legislation passed, all prefects stated their willingness to submit to a recall referendum. (Comment: The prefects' current unwillingness reflects the increased probability of opposition losses: polls suggest only Santa Cruz Prefect Costas is reliably safe from recall. In addition, public sentiment has begun to turn against the high cost of the various referenda in Bolivia: recent headlines projected costs in the millions of dollars, and voters may also be becoming tired of the instability and violence accompanying Bolivia's complex democratic processes. End comment.) ¶4. (C) In the face of new reluctance on the part of the prefects, Evo is stepping up his campaign both for the recall referenda to take place and for himself to survive the recall. The government spokesman on June 22 said that the central government is willing to negotiate anything (including the autonomy statues) but the recall referendum. Evo clearly views the recall referendum as a chance not to merely validate his tenure and his "campaign of change" but also to attack the opposition prefects. The slogan for Evo's Cochabamba campaign (to be officially revealed on June 25) is reportedly, "Evo yes, Manfred no." - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Evo's Recall and the MAS Constitution Linked? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Although the MAS draft constitution has not been ratified by a national referendum (nor is a referendum on it yet scheduled),Evo has lately chided opponents for not "respecting the new constitution." This confusion over the status of the draft constitution may be mere rhetoric or political expediency. However, some observers have suggested the possibility that Evo plans to link the constitution and his recall: that is, a vote for Evo is a vote for the constitution. Passing the constitution in this manner would be illegal. Illegality has not stopped the MAS in recent actions, however, and it is a potential political development that needs to be watched carefully. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Evo: Recall, Inflation, and the USG linked - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) In Cochabamba on June 21, Evo began his campaign for his survival of the recall referendum with an attack on the United States. Addressing his followers, Evo said, "We are initiating a campaign for two things: the people will say (with their vote) if change continues or if the neoliberal model returns...I already feel ratified." In commenting on the opposition prefects' rejection of the recall referendum, Evo said that the opposition will try to use the issue of inflation to discredit his administration. "There is a conspiracy against the government," Evo continued, blaming "north-American imperialism" and "the traitorous right" for food scarcities and inflation. ¶7. (C) Comment: Evo has always been politically vulnerable to problems with the economy. His ongoing attempts to blame spiraling inflation and food prices on the opposition and the USG suggest that he is feeling this issue more acutely as the official inflation level reaches eight percent and unofficial estimates put it at over twelve percent so far this year. End comment. URS