MIXED SIGNALS FOR JUNE 9 EMBASSY PROTEST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LA PAZ 001289

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC BO
SUBJECT: MIXED SIGNALS FOR JUNE 9 EMBASSY PROTEST

REF: A. LA PAZ 1284

B. LA PAZ 1189

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Embassy contacts are providing widely
divergent estimates (from 150 to several thousand) regarding
participation estimates for a June 9 march which will
culminate at the Embassy. Contacts tell PolOff radical
Alteno leaders are trying to artificially graft an anti-U.S.
theme onto an event organized to protest racism. They
suspect this lobbying to continue until the last minute, when
Alteno leaders plan to address crowds at Plaza San Francisco,
the end point of the originally schedule march against
racism. EcoPol contacts generally minimize the ability of
radicals to move large crowds on a subsequent additional leg
of the march to the Embassy, but RSO police contacts, PAS
media contacts, and other sources anticipate a large and
violent crowd, fueled by outrage following news coverage June
5 that ex-Defense Minister Carlos Sanchez Berzain was granted
asylum in the U.S. The Embassy is reduced to essential staff
June 9 and has set up an alternate command post at the USAID
building, which is in another part of La Paz. End Summary.

Worst Case Scenario: Multitudes Descend from El Alto
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2. (C) Police contacts tell RSO that they are expecting up to
10,000 protesters to march on the Embassy June 9. The police
advised the Embassy to close operations and added the protest
could get violent and involve use of dynamite. La Paz and El
Alto newspaper editors told our PAS office they predicted
large crowds outside the Embassy due to public outrage
following news coverage that ex-Defense Minister Carlos
Sanchez Berzain was granted asylum in the U.S. (reftel a).
(Note: Many blame Berzain for a bloody standoff between the
military and anti-government forces in El Alto in October,

2003. End Note.) Other sections report similar predictions
from their contacts for a large and violent demonstration.


3. (C) There will also be a general strike in El Alto June 9.
We are preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. The
Embassy will be on minimal staffing and closed to the public
June 9. We have set up an alternate command center at the
USAID building in another part of La Paz and will be sending
in sitreps as appropriate.

Best Case Scenario: Small Group Despite Big Bluster
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4. (C) FEJUVE Executive Board Member Juan Escalier told
PolOff June 6 that "this is not a done deal yet; things are
very much in flux." He said FEJUVE (a powerful El Alto
neighborhood organization) would meet at 1700 June 6 to
discuss the issue of FEJUVE participation, where he will
argue against including the Embassy in the march because "we
need to export to the United States and these people are
jeopardizing that." FEJUVE Vice President Luis Huanca told
us he is "at war" with FEJUVE President Ismael Herrera over
the issue and plans to challenge him at the meeting to make
the case that "this is not a good idea for El Alto."
Escalier estimated no more than 10 percent of the marchers
would continue from the marches original end-point of Plaza
San Francisco, or about 500 to 1,000 protesters. He said the
crowd would have been just a few hundred, but the Berzain
story "has changed the calculus."


5. (C) Central Workers Union (COR) Secretary General Remigio
Condori told Embassy Indigenous Advisor he was trying to
fight Rocha (whose union group is also a constituent part of
the COR) and keep the march with its original anti-racism and
anti-opposition themes. Condori said the COR is "too divided
to take detailed positions," and that engaging in such issues
as blaming the Embassy for Berzain's asylum or trying to link
the Embassy to racism would further fracture the
organization. He and other contacts said COR President Edgar

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Patana is only luke warm in his endorsement of including the
Embassy, as it runs counter to his efforts to reunite a
fracture COR leadership. Condori, a march organizer, said de
la Cruz is the principal architect of the strategy to add the
U.S. Embassy to the march route. Condori said he remained a
friend of the United States, but that "for the time being" it
was too risky for him to meet with us.


6. (C) MAS City Councilman Gustavo Morales said the
government isn't involved or paying for march participation
(Note: Other contacts assert some combination of El Alto
Mayor Fanar Nava and the national government, using
Venezuelan funds, are paying for participation, although we
have not been able to confirm this. Rocha is allegedly close
with avidly anti-U.S. Minister of Presidency Juan Ramon
Quintana and Minister of Interior Alfredo Rada. End Note.)
and is not involved in trying to steer the march to the
Embassy. He said only a small group, which he defined as
less than 1,000 would march on the Embassy. He did not think
the Berzain asylum news would change participation
significantly.


7. (C) FEJUVE Director of International Relations Arturo
Baltazar likewise told PolOff it was likely to be a small
percentage of anti-Racism group that would march on the
Embassy, although he was not even sure if the march would
happen. "This was originally a strike, that's what everyone
signed on for. Now they keep expanding it. People are
getting annoyed with this and may just say enough." He said
FEJUVE chapters in five of El Alto's districts said they will
not participate.


8. (C) National Deputy Franklin Lavayen Luna (opposition
PODEMOS) told PolOff June 4 that the march would consist of a
small group (100-200) of the usual suspects: the La Paz Civic
Committee (a cloned MAS organization) and the "El Alto
Taliban" (the informal name for City Councilman Roberto de la
Cruz's supporters). Lavayen said even mobilization for the
main march to San Francisco would be difficult for Alteno
leaders as people are more angry about inflation than they
are about racism. He said El Alto only shows up in large
numbers when the subject has a tangible impact on their daily
lives, such as in 2003 when the subject was distribution of
natural resource wealth, or when they are being paid.
Lavayen said march organizer Rocha told him there are limited
funds for this march, enough to mobilize Rocha and some
leaders but not enough to trickle down to membership. He
added that although leadership can cajole participation
through fines and intimidation, this hasn't been working very
well for El Alto lately with disgruntled "hungry" members.
"Many people are just saying I've got better things to do,
like feed my family, and the leadership is too divided and
weak to enforce anything."

Last-Minute Lobbying to Continue
--------------


9. (C) All contacts agree key organizations remain divided,
both generally and with regard to including the U.S. as a
target of the June 9 march. They contended that lobbying for
and against participating in the additional leg of the march
to the Embassy would continue until the end of the original
leg in Plaza San Francisco, where they expected radicals to
rail against the U.S. "empire" in a last minute plea to
compel people to continue

March Madness Origins
--------------


10. (C) FEJUVE's Escalier said that radicals like City
Councilman Robert de la Cruz (Movement 17),Federation of
Unions Executive Secretary Brualio Rocha, and Federation of
Urban Agrarian Communities (FSCARUSU) Executive Director
Zacarias Maquera, are tying to artificially graft an
anti-U.S. message and march to the Embassy on an existing
resolution and march centered "on an issue we all agree on,

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racism." He said "most" El Alto leaders, including COR and
FEJUVE senior leaders, understand that marching to the
Embassy is "a bad idea," but that they are under political
pressure and to make a least a token gesture toward any
"anti-imperialist initiative." Although FEJUVE's president
said June 4 the organization would support the march,
Escalier contends this was an unofficial endorsement and a
statement he was "pressured into making." Despite his
rhetorical support for the march, Escalier said even Rocha's
group is divided on marching on the Embassy.


11. (C) FEJUVE's Baltazar said that radical leaders have been
talking out of turn on behalf of El Alto since the original
strike/march resolution was drafted May 29 in an attempt to
"make Evo happy" and "alter reality." He contends El Alto
groups agreed strictly to the points in the El Alto
Inter-Institutional Committee (IIC) resolution, which do not
include any reference to the U.S. The resolution focuses on
racism and demands perpetrators and "intellectual authors" of
racist offenses be prosecuted, particularly those involved in
forcing indigenous supporters of Evo to march shirtless and
kneel in Sucre May 24 (reftel b). It also mentions support
of President Evo Morales and against department (state)
opposition leaders for the upcoming August 10 recall
referendum, and rejects any claim from "racist" Sucre as the
capital. A new El Alto IIC resolution released June 6,
however, includes the United States as a cause for convoking
the June 9 general strike: "against the North American
Embassy, against racism, the oligarchy, and in support of the
process of change."


12. (C) El Alto City Councilman Morales said even at the
leadership level, many, such as FEJUVE's new president, are
making public statements out of an obligation to maintain
their anti-imperialist credentials and remain in favor of the
government. Councilman Morales blamed fellow Councilman de
la Cruz for making the United States a target in an
initiative intended to target racism. He stressed the
original resolution made no mention of the U.S. and said he
are not being cryptically referred to "intellectual authors"
of events in Sucre May 24. Only during a follow-up meeting
orchestrated for the media on May 30 did the U.S. come up at
the behest of de la Cruz, Rocha, and Maquera. Although the
El Alto Mayor and two other council members attended, they
didn't speak and presence was not an endorsement of the U.S.
bashing. Councilman Morales contends that the three just got
carried away showboating in front of the cameras. He
suspects the U.S. would have never come up if the media had
not showed up.


13. (C) Lavayen said he talked to key organizer Rocha, a
supposed close friend, on June 2 to talk him out of the
additional march to the Embassy. Rocha didn't disagree with
Lavayen's arguments, but told him he there was too much money
involved for him personally to turn down. According to
Lavayen, Rocha is also taking advantage of the cooling of
support for the government from other Alteno leaders to step
into the breech and improve his standing. Other contacts
contend Rocha's is trying to gain momentum for a run at the
COR presidency, as the current COR president may be
positioning himself for a run at department prefect (state
governor). He said whether "the government" can mobilize
significant numbers for "their march" would be a far more
accurate indicator of President Morales' ultimate strength in
El Alto than polls, which he said vastly overestimate
Morales' popularity.

Comment
--------------


14. (C) The timing of the Berzain stories was unfortunate and
will boost numbers in any Embassy protest June 9. Linking us
to the deplorable acts in Sucre May 24, however clumsily, is
beyond the pale (and not much of a mobilizing factor). How
many will come, if they will be paid, and by whom are matters
of conjecture at this point. In Alteno fashion, critical

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decisions may wait until Saturday's march organizing meeting
or may even be made during the march itself.


15. (C) June 9 plans to march to Embassy, regardless of their
success, constitute an unfortunate and short sighted strategy
on the part of its organizers. We have a long history as a
trusted partner to El Alto, which has not been lost on some
Alteno leaders. USAID provided $6 million in development
assistance to El Alto in 2007. Our trade preference supports
roughly half of El Alto's burgeoning textile industry,
importing $19 million in exports to the United States.
GOLDBERG