BOLIVIA: TWO VISIONS OF AUTONOMY FOR POTOSI

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001150 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BL SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: TWO VISIONS OF AUTONOMY FOR POTOSI Classified By: ADCM Mike Hammer reasons 1.4 b,d ¶1. (C) Summary: On May 12 and 13, Emboff met with Potosi departmental (state) Prefect Mario Virreira and Potosi city Mayor Rene Joaquino. The department of Potosi is one of the three altiplano departments that have formed the majority of support for the ruling Movement Toward Socialism party, while the capital city of Potosi is the main stronghold of the small opposition group Alianza Social (AS.) The two leaders outlined very different visions of autonomy in Potosi: MAS Prefect Virreira sticking to a MAS-approved regional autonomy that is sketchily outlined in the MAS draft constitution, and AS Mayor Joaquino more interested in true departmental autonomy. The Federation of Private Entrepreneurs of Potosi is also advocating autonomy for the department. Some commentators question whether Mayor Joaquino is positioning himself for the prefectural election, should Prefect Virreira lose the upcoming recall referendum. As the head of his party, however, Joaquino may be planning for the possibility that President Evo Morales loses his recall referendum, leading to another national election. End summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - A Reluctant Politician - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Prefect Mario Virreira is a civil engineer who studied in Cincinnati and spent the majority of his professional life in higher education. He prides himself on his hands-on approach to the job, describing with enthusiasm his successes in rural electrification and the fact that constituents have told him he is the first Prefect to ever visit many of the small towns in the far-flung reaches of his department. He speaks politely of his boss Evo and has faithfully kept to the MAS party line. Nevertheless, he calls himself "an engineer, not a politician" and, in reference to the possible recall referendum he may soon face, says, "I did the job because they asked me to, but if the people do not want me to continue, I will be happy to go back to my old life." - - - - - - - - Dialogue Doubts - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) Emboff met with Prefect Virreira roughly twenty-four hours after his meeting in La Paz with President Morales and four other prefects (Oruro, Cochabamba, La Paz, and Chuquisaca's interim prefect, with Cochabamba prefect Manfred Reyes Villa representing the autonomy-seeking opposition.) Virreira is not a dynamic speaker, and his lack of enthusiasm might also derive from a late night and excessive travel, but he seemed despondent when asked about the chance for dialogue between the central government and the autonomy-seeking departments of the eastern lowlands: "Of course dialogue can succeed," he said slowly, pausing before adding, "after all, last night the government met with five of the departments." He mildly criticized Santa Cruz for being inflexible, before entering into a (for him) animated discussion of the future of autonomy in Potosi: regional autonomy. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Autonomy with Evo's Blessing - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) "Santa Cruz doesn't want regional autonomy because the Prefect is afraid of losing power," he opined, but added that regional autonomy was the perfect way to delegate administrative chores away from the Prefect. He described how he would prefer to focus on larger issues, while allowing four regions within his department to do more hands-on management. He did not comment on the possibility that autonomous regions might cross departmental lines, nor did he explain how indigenous autonomies (presumably smaller than regions, which are in turn smaller than departments) would fall into any heirarchy of power. Bringing out a map from a tourist magazine, he showed how the four regions are already defined: North Potosi; East-Central Potosi including the capital city of Potosi; South-central Potosi; and Western Potosi which includes the vast Uyuni Salt Flats and U.S. based Apex's San Cristobal Mine, the largest mining investment in Bolivia. "It makes sense," he claimed, adding without detail and almost as if by rote a reassurance that indigenous autonomies could easily fit into regional autonomies. (Comment: Virreira's unassuming nature and lack of personal political drive make it more understandable that he would be a proponent of a style of autonomy that would decrease his power as prefect. End comment.) ¶5. (C) When Emboff asked how these levels of autonomy would fit with departmental autonomy, Virreira seemed unsure, fumbling his answer and eventually responding simply that "all levels would work together." (Comment: Many observers have suggested that Evo is pushing regional and indigenous autonomies as a way to divide and conquer in the departments that are seeking departmental autonomy. Excessive layers of autonomy would presumably prove unmanageable, but the departments would have a hard time arguing against additional levels of autonomy while clinging to the right to regional autonomy. Emboff got the impression that, as a good party footsoldier, Virreira had been told to champion regional autonomies without being given full details on whether or not he should support departmental autonomy. End comment.) Virreira did mention, however, that Potosi has a long history of interest in autonomy. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Autonomy of a Different Type - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) The next day Emboff met with the Rene Joaquino, mayor of the capital city of Potosi and head of the opposition party Alianza Social (septel.) As a generally well-respected mayor of one of Bolivia's most rapidly-growing cities and an indigenous Quechua, he is often mentioned as a potential national leader. Joaquino started the conversation by mentioning Potosi's history of calls for autonomy. "Ever since the 1950s, we've talked about autonomy, but only when the (metals) prices are high," he joked, adding, "when prices are down, we know the money has to come from someplace else." Metal prices are now high, and the local entrepreneurs' federation FEPP (Federacion de Empresarios Privados de Potosi) is running daily ads in the main Potosi newspaper calling for autonomy. Mayor Joaquino has a different view of a future autonomous Potosi than Prefect Virreira. "Regional autonomy won't work, it will just bring chaos," he said firmly, going on to describe a current push by a portion of the city of Potosi that wants to split the city into two mayorships. "They don't understand that the cake doesn't get any bigger, no matter how thin you slice it. Actually you lose money, because you have another mayor and another city council whose salaries you have to pay." ¶7. (C) According to Joaquino, the people of Potosi are generally in favor of autonomy but have held back because they didn't want to be seen as harming Evo. Now that Evo has brought up autonomy, the stigma against it is fading and people are taking at face value the MAS constitution's supposed embrace of autonomy. Joaquino said the main advantages of departmental autonomy will be to bring the government closer to the people and to free the central government from minor, nit-picky duties. "The president shows up at a road opening or an electrification, things that a mayor should be doing. Why is he wasting his time? He should be dealing with international issues, leaving the smaller issues to prefects and mayors." Joaquino described Bolivia's experience with autonomous municipalities as positive, "the people see that the mayors have to respond to their needs. So they will see that the governors or prefects will have to do the same." (Comment: Joaquino used the word 'governor' instead of 'prefect' twice, and he also mentioned the currently-taboo topic of federalism, saying that Potosi had proposed federalism over fifty years ago. End comment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Red, White, and "Si": Autonomy for Potosi - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) Meanwhile, the local entrepreneurs' federation FEPP is ramping up their call for autonomy, recalling the 1940's movement when Potosi rose up against dictator Enrique Penaranda and called for "Federalismo." Then as now, according to FEPP, the mineral resources of Potosi served to develop urban centers in La Paz, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz, leaving Potosi poor and contaminated. (Comment: As the still-impoverished site of the source of the former Spanish empire's wealth, Potosi is particularly fond of viewing itself as a victim, and this theme could motivate Potosi voters. End comment.) The FEPP's pro-autonomy pamphlets castigate current leaders for not protecting Potosi's mineral wealth and blame La Paz bureaucrats for not wanting to share power. Despite Joaquino's statement that Potosinos have avoided discussion of autonomy in order to protect Evo, the FEPP comes out strongly against Evo's "repression" of pro-autonomy Potosinos through use of MAS "shock troops." - - - - Comment - - - - ¶9. (C) Unlike the media luna departments in the eastern lowlands, there is no autonomy referendum on the horizon for Potosi. With the President and the Prefect now promoting nominal forms of autonomy for Potosi, however, other groups including the FEPP and Mayor Joaquino's Alianza Social are freed to promote autonomy, and Potosinos can support autonomy without seeming disloyal to Evo. Evo and the MAS still hold the upper hand in the department, but Evo has lost some of his staunchest proponents, particularly the "socios" or partners in mining cooperatives, who have been frustrated by various legislative changes that damage their productivity. Ironically, in proposing numerous levels of autonomy to weaken the eastern departments and by encouraging his MAS ally Prefect Virreira to promote regional autonomy, Evo may have opened himself up to genuine, grassroots autonomy campaigns from a previously rock-solid MAS area. End comment. URS