EVO CALLS FOR TALK, PREFECTS CONTINUE WITH AUTONOMY

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001088 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: EVO CALLS FOR TALK, PREFECTS CONTINUE WITH AUTONOMY REF: LA PAZ 1079 Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer reasons 1.4b,d ¶1. (SBU) Four days after a majority of voters in the eastern lowland department (state) of Santa Cruz voted for autonomy, President Evo Morales publicly invited the prefects to meet on May 12. "I want to call on the prefects of the nine departments, Monday afternoon in La Paz, to discuss, debate and guarantee autonomy...to create an autonomy for the national majority," Evo said. Despite his previous public statements against Bolivia's Catholic representatives, Evo also invited "our dear Cardinal" to help him. ¶2. (C) On May 6, Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera and Presidency Minister Juan Ramon Quintana had publicly declared that the Cardinal could not participate in the dialogue since he had voted in the Santa Cruz autonomy referendum. In a May 8 meeting, Vice President Garcia Linera told the Ambassador about the planned May 12 dialogue meeting, but indicated that no mediators would be included (reftel.) It is not clear when or why Evo changed his mind. ¶3. (SBU) The Cardinal's spokesperson responded, "the church is inclined to turn the other cheek in order to serve the people unconditionally." The prefects are less interested in participation, however. Beni Prefect Ernesto Suarez said that he would not attend if the intention was to interfere with the autonomy process, stating, "I'm not going to go and neither will Pando and Tarija." Santa Cruz Secretary of Autonomies Carlos Dabdoub denied the possibility of dialogue as long as the central government does not recognize the results of Santa Cruz's autonomy referendum. La Paz Prefect Jose Luis "Pepe Lucho" Paredes also indicated that he would not participate in Monday's dialogue, which he views as politically motivated. ¶4. (C) In a May 8 meeting, Trinidad (Beni) Mayor Moises Shriqui told Emboff that Beni is ready for its autonomy referendum, and it will be "overwhelming." Shriqui opined that Beni does not have the personality difficulties within the opposition that Pando does, and he worried that the rift between the Cobija (Pando) mayor and Pando Prefect Leopoldo Fernandez could hinder the autonomy vote in Pando. Beni has 110,000 registered voters, 60 percent of whom reside in the cities of Trinidad and Riberalta. Shriqui warned that violence was possible in poor neighborhoods in Trinidad and in the countryside, particularly in the "colonizadores" area of Yucumun on the border with La Paz department (where altiplano immigrants from La Paz have settled in Beni.) Shriqui also discounted the value of OAS Secretary General Insulza as a mediator, describing him as "a snake who wants to be a presidential candidate in Chile and makes shady deals with Evo." ¶5. (C) Comment: The timing of Evo's call for dialogue is complicated by the Senate's decision on May 8 to pass legislation calling for referenda to support or revoke the mandates of the nine prefects and the president (septel.) Evo's supposed change of heart is also suspect. The prefects are reluctant to re-engage in talks unless the government shows some evidence that it will enter into good-faith negotiations. Past experience is that Evo uses dialogue as a delaying tactic, distraction, and way to bolster his national and international image as the reasonable player in Bolivia's complex political game. Given the current mistrust on both sides, without an outside broker it is difficult to see that dialogue can prosper. End comment. GOLDBERG