EVO CALLS FOR TALK, PREFECTS CONTINUE WITH AUTONOMY

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001088

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: EVO CALLS FOR TALK, PREFECTS CONTINUE WITH AUTONOMY

REF: LA PAZ 1079

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer reasons 1.4b,d


1. (SBU) Four days after a majority of voters in the eastern
lowland department (state) of Santa Cruz voted for autonomy,
President Evo Morales publicly invited the prefects to meet
on May 12. "I want to call on the prefects of the nine
departments, Monday afternoon in La Paz, to discuss, debate
and guarantee autonomy...to create an autonomy for the
national majority," Evo said. Despite his previous public
statements against Bolivia's Catholic representatives, Evo
also invited "our dear Cardinal" to help him.


2. (C) On May 6, Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera and
Presidency Minister Juan Ramon Quintana had publicly declared
that the Cardinal could not participate in the dialogue since
he had voted in the Santa Cruz autonomy referendum. In a May
8 meeting, Vice President Garcia Linera told the Ambassador
about the planned May 12 dialogue meeting, but indicated that
no mediators would be included (reftel.) It is not clear
when or why Evo changed his mind.


3. (SBU) The Cardinal's spokesperson responded, "the church
is inclined to turn the other cheek in order to serve the
people unconditionally." The prefects are less interested in
participation, however. Beni Prefect Ernesto Suarez said
that he would not attend if the intention was to interfere
with the autonomy process, stating, "I'm not going to go and
neither will Pando and Tarija." Santa Cruz Secretary of
Autonomies Carlos Dabdoub denied the possibility of dialogue
as long as the central government does not recognize the
results of Santa Cruz's autonomy referendum. La Paz Prefect
Jose Luis "Pepe Lucho" Paredes also indicated that he would
not participate in Monday's dialogue, which he views as
politically motivated.


4. (C) In a May 8 meeting, Trinidad (Beni) Mayor Moises
Shriqui told Emboff that Beni is ready for its autonomy
referendum, and it will be "overwhelming." Shriqui opined
that Beni does not have the personality difficulties within
the opposition that Pando does, and he worried that the rift
between the Cobija (Pando) mayor and Pando Prefect Leopoldo
Fernandez could hinder the autonomy vote in Pando. Beni has
110,000 registered voters, 60 percent of whom reside in the
cities of Trinidad and Riberalta. Shriqui warned that
violence was possible in poor neighborhoods in Trinidad and
in the countryside, particularly in the "colonizadores" area
of Yucumun on the border with La Paz department (where
altiplano immigrants from La Paz have settled in Beni.)
Shriqui also discounted the value of OAS Secretary General
Insulza as a mediator, describing him as "a snake who wants
to be a presidential candidate in Chile and makes shady deals
with Evo."


5. (C) Comment: The timing of Evo's call for dialogue is
complicated by the Senate's decision on May 8 to pass
legislation calling for referenda to support or revoke the
mandates of the nine prefects and the president (septel.)
Evo's supposed change of heart is also suspect. The prefects
are reluctant to re-engage in talks unless the government
shows some evidence that it will enter into good-faith
negotiations. Past experience is that Evo uses dialogue as a
delaying tactic, distraction, and way to bolster his national
and international image as the reasonable player in Bolivia's
complex political game. Given the current mistrust on both
sides, without an outside broker it is difficult to see that
dialogue can prosper. End comment.

GOLDBERG