BOLIVIA: TWO DAYS TO MAY 4, OUR PREDICTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001021 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2018 TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: TWO DAYS TO MAY 4, OUR PREDICTIONS Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). - - - - Summary - - - - ¶1. (C) With just two days remaining before Santa Cruz' May 4 autonomy statute referendum separating wild speculation from more well-grounded prognostication is increasingly difficult. Nonetheless, this cable attempts to forecast what may happen. We expect the referendum to pass with a wide margin, in the 65 to 75 percent range. Isolated incidences of violence (with the possibility of a few deaths) between pro- and anti-autonomy supporters are likely, especially in the pro-MAS areas of Santa Cruz and Cochabamba city. However, as of 5:00 PM May 2, we are receiving reports that MAS supporters are being trucked into the city where they are setting up road blocks. It is expected that state-run media will broadcast images of any of the violence as a means to discredit the referendum as undemocratic, violent, and separatist in nature. We have received credible information that the Embassy will be the target of potentially large anti-U.S. demonstrations. We have taken the necessary precautions to warn American citizens of the dangers surrounding the May 4 referendum, and to adequately protect U.S. Mission personnel and assets. End Summary. - - - - - - - - - - - The May 4 Referendum - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) According to the latest Ipsos, Apoyo Opinion y Mercado poll, conducted April 14-21, 74 percent of Santa Cruz city residents support the autonomy statutes. Polling in Bolivia is never particularly accurate as rural voters are overlooked as was the case in this latest poll. According to Bolivia's National Institute of Statistics, Santa Cruz' urban population represents approximately 72 percent of the department (state). The rural areas of Santa Cruz tend to lean heavily toward President Evo Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) and against autonomy. Nevertheless, we estimate the autonomy vote will still win with a wide margin, in the 65 to 75 percent range, depending on the turnout of those opposed. Official results are not expected before May ¶26. However, there are rumors that the MAS may attempt to send "observers" to each polling station to allege fraud, to try to nullify the vote and require a re-vote a week or two later. This would delay the results and cast more doubt on the referendum in general. �A; ¶3. (C) Two rumors are circulating regarding what message Santa Cruz Prefect Ruben Costas will deliver on the evening of May 4 after the polls have closes. ONE scenario has Costas taking the "patient road" asking his Santa Cruz constituents to wait until May 26 before he announces any new initiatives. The second scenario has Costas taking the "bold" route announcing new initiatives immediately such as an increase in the Santa Cruz monthly minimum wage and universal HEALTH care for all of the department's citizens. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Isolated Incidences of Violence Expected - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) As with any important political event in Bolivia, May 4 will likely be plagued with major demonstrations, strikes, road blockages and other forms of civil disobedience in all nine departments and their capitals. Based on both public and private sources, we expect that there will be isolated incidences of violence between pro- and anti-autonomy groups in Santa Cruz and possibly Cochabamba department. The incidences could result in a few deaths. Large scale violent clashes are less likely, but cannot be totally discounted. ¶5. (C) The violence in Santa Cruz will likely be focused in the rural MAS strong-holds of San Julian and Yapacani, and in the largely pro-MAS Plan 3000 district of Santa Cruz City. The government has stated it will not provide police protection to voting locations. Pro-MAS groups (coca growers, union groups, indigenous groups) have declared they will try to disrupt the May 4 referendum primarily by blocking polling stations and burning ballot boxes ) although it may only be Santa Cruz based pro-MAS groups (see paragraphs 6-7). The government states it has urged its supporters not to participate in such activities. Santa Cruz autonomy supporters (many of which are young and are members of the radical, and at times violent, Santa Cruz Youth Union) state they have formed a group of almost 7000 to maintain security around voting stations. ¶6. (C) In Cochabamba department, where pro- and anti-MAS forces are evenly matched we could see a repeat of the January 2007 violence that resulted in hundreds injured and three deaths. Rural Cochabamba, which includes Evo's coca-growing Chapare stronghold, represents 50 percent of the department's population is strongly pro-MAS. Cochabamba city is largely anti-MAS. Up until April 25, Cochabamba contacts were confident that Cochabamba would remain relatively unscathed on May 4. However, on May 1 the Six-Federation of Coca Growers of the Chapare stated they would bring together one million of their members in Cochabamba city for a rally on May 4. This number is a gross exaggeration of how many cocaleros the Federations can likely pull together; nonetheless it has Cochabamba Prefect Manfred Reyes Villa concerned about a replay of January 2007. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - El Alto Not Going to Santa Cruz . . . - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) Many members of key El Alto city labor and social groups such as the Regional Workers Union (COR),Federation of Neighborhoods (FEJUVE),and Civic Committee, told PolOff there will be no mass mobilization to Santa Cruz. They said it would be difficult to pay people to go. As of April 29, there were no plans to pay or transport such a mobilization. Even if paid, they argued Morales has lost the ability to convoke massive demonstrations on par with 2003 and 2005 due to his perceived slighting of the city, both in terms of national representation and prioritization for development projects and funds. High inflation, which they partially blame on government mismanagement, is also a factor for their ambivalence. El Alto protesters also have bad memories of their march in Sucre in November 2007. "No ONE wants to die for Santa Cruz's referendum, not for 100 Bolivianos a day, not for 1,000 Bolivianos a day," said FEJUVE's Juan Escalier Rodriguez. ¶8. (C) The El Alto contacts could not rule out that more extreme groups like the Ponchos Rojos, Farmers Union (CSUTCB),and cocaleros from Cochabamba might march on Santa Cruz. However, these groups are also divided and would not be able to mass significant numbers without the participation of El Alto-based groups, they told poloff. Since then, Ponchos Rojos leaders have stated that they will participate in a May 4 demonstration in El Alto (not Santa Cruz),which contacts characterize as a "pro-unity, pro-negotiation" march. (Comment: Some added, however, that the government is covering costs for some members of these groups despite their public stance and that it would not take a large group to provoke violence with the pro-opposition Santa Cruz Youth Movement, whether the government planned it or not. End Comment.) ¶9. (C) As of 5:00 PM La Paz time on May 2, we are receiving reports that MAS supporters are being trucked into Santa Cruz where they are establishing road blocks. We will continue to monitor. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - . . . But Maybe Coming to the Embassy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (C) Outgoing FEJUVE President Nasario Rameriz told PolOff last week that there would be a "small" group of protesters (La Paz Civic Committee) marching from Plaza Avaroa to the Embassy May 4 to burn effigies. RSO contacts have stated that this group might actually try to attack/burn down the Embassy. EcoPol contacts were universally dismissive of a massive mobilization on the Embassy until April 30, when El Alto political organizer Felix Montalvo told PolOff a decision was made to start distributing money to even marginally sympathetic members of COR and FEJUVE general assembly members to mobilize on the Embassy May 4. Although he estimated a crowd of 20,000 with COR and FEJUVE participation, his motives appear questionable as he asked us for money, arguing with it he could stop the protests. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Military Sitting Out May 4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶11. (C) Consistent with the government's speaking points over the past few weeks, Minister of Defense Walker San Miguel stated April 30 that "the armed forces will be on a moderate state of alert (during May 4) in order to provide whatever kind of help and cooperation to the people." San Miguel reiterated that the police will be the first responders to any outbreaks of violence, that the soldiers will stay in their barracks until needed, and that "there will be no state of siege." San Miguel discounted rumors of a military buildup in Santa Cruz, arguing any increased security presence was on the part of the police. In a conversation with PolOff, Vice Minister of Defense Wilfredo Vargas echoed San Miguel's comments, and claimed he personally was working with social groups to keep them from going to Santa Cruz. - - - - - - - - - - - - Media Could Fuel Flames - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶12. (C) The government can be expected to use state-run TV and radio to broadcast images/sounds of any of the violence (and deaths) in order to discredit the referendum as undemocratic, violent, and separatist in nature. The government will also likely feed any images to foreign media representatives which have already begun descending on Santa Cruz. There are an estimated 75 foreign journalists from 15 different countries in Santa Cruz as of May 1. We can expect equally provocative broadcasts from Bolivia's privately-held media as it often focuses and transmits the most sensationalist images and stories. Depending on the images this may provoke greater violence. Some in the media fear that with Morales' May 1 takeover of ENTEL, the government could cut-off private media transmissions from Santa Cruz. ENTEL is currently the only satellite-link provider. - - - - - - - - - - Mission Preparation - - - - - - - - - - ¶13. (C) The La Paz RSO team issued a Security Notice to all mission personnel April 28. The Consular Section sent out a Warden Message the same day. The RSO notice prohibits overland travel in La Paz, Santa Cruz, and Cochabamba during the May 1 to May 4 timeframe and urges people to stay at home and to avoid the city centers. It also encourages stockpiling of food, water and other supplies and requires mission personnel (employees and spouses) to conduct radio checks. USG employees in Santa Cruz and Cochabamba will be in "lock-down" mode starting 8:00 PM May 3 until the morning of May 5. Evacuation plans have been updated for Santa Cruz and Cochabamba. A 23 person staff will be working at the Embassy on May 4 for reporting purposes and should there be a need to destroy classified. We have also set up an alternate command center at our USAID/NAS building. In addition, all sections with materials of confidential or higher classification have reduced their documentation to one-hour's worth of shredding. GOLDBERG