MASSIVE BLACKOUTS PROMPTS PUNJAB PROTESTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAHORE 000290 E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2018 TAGS: ECON PK ENRG PGOV SUBJECT: MASSIVE BLACKOUTS PROMPTS PUNJAB PROTESTS Derived from: DSCG 05-1, E ¶1. (SBU) Multi-hour blackouts, known locally as "loadshedding," over the past week sparked several protests in and around Lahore October 20 and 21. Protestors have told reporters that while overbilling by the Lahore Electricty Supply Company (LESCO) had made them angry, frustration over the worsening power outages ultimately fueled the gatherings. According to news reports, the protestors seized furniture and computers from a local LESCO office October 20 and set them on fire outside the building, while several attempted but failed to ignite the office. In a separate incident, police dispersed another group protesting LESCO by blocking GT Road October 20. Several groups also blocked main thoroughfares in Lahore October 21, while several local LESCO offices found themselves under siege, prompting LESCO officials to flee. Punjab University students also staged a demonstration October 20 demanding that the university set up its own generator to offset outages, which had reached up to five continuous hours. ¶2. (SBU) In response to the protests, LESCO Chief Executive Akram Arain told reporters October 20 that LESCO faced a 1,7000 megawatt (MW) deficit, and could only fulfill 1,000-1,200 MW of the total demand of 2,700 MW during peak hours. He admitted that loadshedding has reached nine hours per day in urban areas, but he expected that an increase in water released from reservoirs starting November 1 would alleviate the problem. According to Dawn, he could not explain why LESCO experienced a 55 percent shortage and the country only 40-45 percent. ¶3. (SBU) A local union president representing Water and Power Department employees told his union leadership October 21 that the federal government has punished Punjab by increasing the tariffs more than in other provinces. People should criticize the rulers, he suggested. ¶4. (C) According to police sources, the number of protestors approached 1,000 on October 20, exceeding the 150 protestors reported by The Daily News and 600-700 who initially gathered in Gujjarpura according to Dawn. The October 21 protests appear to have been larger and more numerous. Local residents have also told conoffs that the media has reported every protest in the Lahore area. The gatherings have tended to occur in lower and middle-class neighborhoods strained by the excessive loadshedding, which has far exceeded the official number of nine hours per day given by LESCO. ¶5. (C) Comment: The unprecedented amount of loadshedding has the potential to spark widespread unrest in Punjab. The material impact of outages hurts the province at a time of already declining crop yields, rising prices, decreasing exports and lack of liquidity. The outages mean that famers cannot irrigate their fields, mill owners cannot run their textile factories and businesses cannot swipe a credit card on a regular basis. Moreover, the discrepancy between the nine hours of loadshedding officially announced and the 18 hours experienced per day with little explanation has caused deep resentment throughout Punjab. Politicians of all stripes have stood back because they have no quick fix to the situation, and they hope that diverting water in November from the reservoirs will help alleviate the shortage. At the moment, they have let the bureaucrats of LESCO feel the brunt of the mob's anger. But, if the loadshedding continues unabated, the protestors may soon turn their attention to their elected officials, both in the province and the federal government. HUNT