NIGERIA: OIL EXEC SAYS GON NOT READY FOR JOINT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000505 SIPDIS DOE FOR GPERSON, CHAYLOCK E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2018 TAGS: EPET ENRG PGOV NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: OIL EXEC SAYS GON NOT READY FOR JOINT VENTURE RESTRUCTURING Classified By: Consul General Donna M. Blair for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D ) ¶1. (C) Summary: The chairman and managing director of Pan Ocean Oil Company, Dr. Festus Fadeyi (strictly protect),said on December 16 that the GON and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) do not fully understand the implications of plans to turn the country's oil company joint ventures into incorporated joint ventures. The joint venture operating partners will demand greater control of joint venture operations reducing the ability of NNPC and GON officials to dictate contract terms, delay projects and steal oil and cash. He expects the fight over oil industry reform to take several years. Fadeyi said a leaking Shell oil pipeline in Delta state exploded on November 6 killing seven Shell workers and 17 contractors sent to repair the line. The explosion has shut in all of Pan Ocean Oil's 41,000 barrel per day production. Fadeyi did not believe that moving Rilwanu Lukman from his current special advisor role to energy minister would necessarily indicate he has the ability or desire to implement planned oil sector reforms. He acknowledged rumors that Shell plans to exit Nigeria, but dismissed them as routine industry chatter unlikely to materialize; the exit would be costly and time consuming and there are few viable candidates to take over Shell's vast Nigerian operations. End Summary. Proposed JV Structure Would Radically Alter Sector -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) In a conversation with EnergyOff on December 16, the chairman and managing director of Pan Ocean Oil Company (POOC),Dr. Festus Fadeyi, said he does not believe officials in the GON and parts of NNPC fully realize the implication of plans to turn Nigeria's unincorporated joint ventures into incorporated joint ventures. (Note: POOC is the smallest of the joint venture companies and the only Nigerian company to operate a joint venture with NNPC. It produces 41,000 barrels per day from oil fields along the border of Delta and Edo states. End note.) According to Fadeyi, the international oil companies and POOC operating the joint ventures will demand (through their trade lobbying group the Oil Producers Trade Section) a majority stake in the incorporated venture and that the managing director of the venture be one of their executives. Additionally, the oil companies will demand that the incorporated joint venture director have final say on all spending plans, hiring decisions, and contract awards. All the oil from the incorporated joint ventures will be sold by the joint venture itself and the resulting proceeds from the sale of oil will be distributed to the shareholders. In return the incorporated joint ventures will finance operations and expansion through current revenues or seek additional debt funding as a stand alone corporate entity. (Note: This is the model for the successful Nigerian Liquefied Natural Gas facility. End Note.) ¶3. (C) Under the current unincorporated structure, NNPC owns a 60 percent share (55 percent in Shell's case) of the joint venture. All spending plans and contracts must be approved by National Petroleum Investment Management Service (NAPIMS), a division of NNPC. Joint venture partners are responsible for annual payments of the joint venture's operating and capital expenses, known as the "cash call." The partners in the current joint venture structure are allocated oil based on their percentage of ownership; they are responsible for selling the oil themselves. NNPC's crude oil marketing division sells NNPC's share of the oil and the decision about who gets to lift that oil, normally lucrative contracts rife with kickbacks, is often made at the Presidential level. GON Doesn't Understand New Joint Venture Structure -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) The new, incorporated structure is being championed by Dr. Emmanuel Egbogah, Special Advisor to the President on Petroleum Matters, based on his experience working in Malaysia. It has gained support from President Yar'Adua and other senior GON politicians who see it as a way of ending LAGOS 00000505 002 OF 003 the annual cash call requirement on the GON. However, Fadeyi does not believe that either GON officials, including the current Minister of State for Energy (Petroleum) Odein Ajumogobia, President Yar'Adua, or the heads of NNPC's crude oil marketing division and NAPIMS understand the broader implications of this plan. NAPIMS controls almost every contract that comes out of the joint ventures. The crude oil marketing division sells Nigeria's share of the crude oil produced by the joint ventures. They are the main areas in NNPC for large scale corruption. Under the joint venture restructuring plan, NAPIMS would be out of a job, unable to control the joint venture contracts. The crude oil marketing division would also be out of business as the joint ventures would sell all the oil produced and distribute the resulting proceeds to shareholders. In essence, said Fadeyi the GON would be privatizing its onshore oil operations and limiting the federal government's ability to interfere in ongoing production decisions. ¶5. (C) In addition, Fadeyi thought the share of proceeds going to the GON would be slightly less than under the new joint ventures compared to the current form, but overall revenues would improve as production increased. Fadeyi expects that once politicians and NNPC insiders wake up to the plan, a battle will ensue over the restructuring. Joint venture restructuring, if it happens, could start as early as next spring. However, Fadeyi believes overall sector reform, as detailed in a petroleum sector reform bill currently with the National Assembly, will take several years. Rilwanu As Energy Minister Unlikely to Make Changes -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Fadeyi did not think the appointment of Rilwanu Lukman as energy minister would significantly improve the current dismal state of affairs in Nigeria's oil sector. While acknowledging Lukman's expertise, he didn't think Lukman had the drive or desire to shake-up the industry. In his opinion, Lukman was appointed simply because he was a northerner and a trusted face. Fadeyi pointed out that if Lukman had wanted to shake things up, he could have done so in his current role as honorary special advisor on energy to President Yar'Adua, while Yar'Adua held the energy portfolio. The fact that the industry has been adrift and the senior GON leadership has been seemingly uninterested in the petroleum sector while Lukman has acted as energy advisor is either an indication that Lukman only wants to make cosmetic changes or he does not have access to or influence with President Yar'Adua. Shell Pipeline Explosion Kills 24 -------------- ¶7. (C) All oil production from POOC's fields is shut-in. Fadeyi said that a Shell-owned pipeline in Delta State that POOC uses to transport its oil to the Forcados export terminal blew up on November 6. The explosion killed seven Shell employees, including pipeline engineers, and 17 contractors who where in the area to fix a leak in the line. According to Fadeyi, because of the explosion POOC and Shell are unable to determine whether the original leak was caused by sabotage or pipeline corrosion. (Note: This is the first we have heard of the explosion which was not reported in the media. Fadeyi said Shell had done a good job of keeping it quiet. End Note.) He expects the line to be repaired and POOC production to resume within the next two weeks. Rumors about Shell's Exit Unfounded -------------- ¶6. (C) When asked about persistent industry rumors that an oil company may exit Nigeria, Fadeyi said Shell was perennially the target of such talk, but its exit was unlikely. He pointed out the Shell is too deeply intertwined in Nigeria to make an easy withdrawal from the country. No other international oil company would want Shell's troubled onshore oil fields and there are not enough competent Nigerian private oil companies to absorb Shell's vast operations. NNPC is a not capable of taking over from Shell LAGOS 00000505 003 OF 003 and Fadeyi didn't think Russian, Chinese, or Indian companies have much interest in getting that deeply involved in the Niger Delta that quickly. Fadeyi speculated that Shell itself may be encouraging such rumors as a way of keeping pressure on the GON. POOC to End Flaring, Begin Gas Processing in 2009 -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) POOC is building a gas gathering facility, in conjunction with U.S.-based Lemna International, that will send natural gas produced during oil production to the Ihovbor power plant in Edo State and produce liquefied propane gas for bottling. Fadeyi didn't have a timeline for completion of the power plant, but he expects the gas gathering facility to be operational in early 2009. When asked how this fit into Nigeria's gas master plan, Fadeyi said it did not. In his view, the GON should get out of the business of controlling domestic gas and let the operators find customers themselves. Completion of the gas gathering facility will end routine gas flaring from POOC oil fields, making the company the first joint venture operator in Nigeria to do so. ¶8. (C) Comment: Fadeyi is a thirty year veteran of Nigeria's oil and gas industry and has a close relationship with Dr. Emmanuel Egbogah. While his comments on Lukman may be colored by his connection to Egbogah (who apparently thought he would be the new energy minister),his assessment of Lukman's potential is reasonable. Without the strong backing of the President or his own political power base, reforming NNPC and restructuring the oil sector will be a difficult chore for Lukman, regardless of whether he holds the title of "honorary special advisor" or "minister." End Comment. ¶9. (U) This cable cleared by Embassy Abuja. BLAIR