SOUTHERN NIGERIAN VOICES: EXPECT NEW ELECTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000044 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W TREASURY FOR DPETERS, RHALL, RABDULRAZAK ENERGY FOR PERSON, GAY COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS STATE PASS USTR FOR LISER, AGAMA STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR KSAMPLE STATE PASS OPIC FOR ZHAN, MSTUCKART, JEDWARDS STATE PASS TDA FOR EEBONG, DSHUSTER STATE PASS EXIM FOR JRICHTER STATE PASS USAID FOR NFREEMAN, GBERTOLIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI SUBJECT: SOUTHERN NIGERIAN VOICES: EXPECT NEW ELECTIONS, SUPPORT CIVIL SOCIETY Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL DONNA BLAIR FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: NGO contacts recommended international donors focus on strengthening civil society and Nigerian institutions and told PolCouns that President Yar'Adua's political hands are tied until the election tribunal determines his fate. Presidential candidate for the African Democratic Congress (ADC),Pat Utomi, says he will align with Muhammadu Buhari to counter a possible Yar'Adua/Atiku ticket if Yar'Adua's election is annulled. The People's Democratic Party (PDP) is being challenged in Ekiti State by both the Action Congress (AC)-dominated Senate and the Ekiti state election tribunal, which recently set a national precedent by allowing forensic evidence of election rigging. Chief Supo Shonibare of Afenifere, a pan-Yoruba socio-cultural group, chided the PDP for announcing victory in areas where they had no support and he criticized the public for abandoning politics. End Summary. -------------- NGOs: Yar'Adua's Hands Are Tied; Assist Civil Society -------------- ¶2. (C) During a January 31 roundtable, Lagos-based civil society representatives told visiting PolCouns in a recent visit to Lagos that they were surprised the U.S. and European governments believe President Yar'Adua is "on game," when they believe he and his limited network of advisors are overwhelmed. (Note: As far as we know, we have never said that President Yar'Adua was "on game," but that he had a successful Washington visit. End note.) They commented Yar'Adua has presented a good public face and has good policy ideas, but argued that his health, networks and experience are so limited (largely to Katsina) they doubted he would get structures in place to implement policy changes. Ayo Ighodaro of Concerned Professionals thought Yar'Adua's hands would be tied until after the election tribunal; Yemisi Ransome-Kuti, Executive Director of Nigeria Network of NGOs (NNNGO),thought they would remain tied after that due to "power blocks" and his commitments to financial backers during the elections. ¶3. (SBU) Ransome-Kuti continued her comments by saying that Nigeria lacks developed institutions and structures. Rebuilding the democratic process and structures takes time, she admitted. To support these advancements, the U.S. should reconsider its objectives in Nigeria and seek to strengthen civil society, she said. She questioned U.S. objectives during the election (and the little support given to increasing civil society's capacity),reasoning that transparent elections require both time and a strong civil society. (Note: The U.S. Mission provided extensive support before and during the 2007 elections to both civil society and NGO groups. We also believe that support for these groups help them play a critical role in bringing to light the problems with the elections. End note.) ¶4. (SBU) Abiola Akiyode-Afolabi of Women Advocacy and Documentation Center said Nigerians want to defend fair elections, but asked how they are expected to do this when faced with guns. Ransome-Kuti questioned why anyone would protest rigged elections and risk dying if there is no hope of improved subsequent elections. Ayo agreed, but added that although people are not visibly dying in the streets for democracy, they are still fighting for change. -------------- Utomi Seeks Buhari Coalition; Expect Atiku to Join Yar'Adua -------------- ¶5. (C) Nigeria's political opposition is a mess because the LAGOS 00000044 002 OF 003 political class considers politics a "bidding game" in which everyone (including the losers) wins something, according to Pat Utomi of the African Democratic Congress presidential aspirant in the April 2007 elections, Director of the Lagos Business School, and Director of the Center for Values in Leadership. However, Utomi has sponsored the creation of what he calls a "shadow government" to institutionalize political opposition platforms and bring together those who seek to launch a debate on democratic ideas. Utomi said he remains in contact with former Vice President Atiku (who now resides in Dubai) and Muhammadu Buhari because he predicts the Supreme Court will cancel Yar'Adua's election. While Utomi is trying to encourage both men to merge into one powerful opposition party, he said Atiku and Buhari dislike one another and have very different ruling styles. Therefore Utomi predicts he would most likely align with Buhari while Atiku would join Yar'Adua. (Comment: Utomi is a reformist interested in improving political debate and challenging ideas; while he may run for a seat in government, he appears less interested in party names and more interested in acquiring a sympathetic partner. End Comment.) ¶6. (C) The People's Democratic Party (PDP) is an enemy to itself, Utomi commented, as no PDP member believes in the party. The middle class, which in a normal country would be the driving force of political reform, has all but left Nigeria, Utomi explained. In his view, the PDP is nothing but a soulless machine through which its members acquire political positions. While Yar'Adua has a soul, he has no network and his worldview is limited to Katsina State, therefore Utomi thinks it unlikely he can change the PDP. Court rulings will play a critical role in Nigeria's future, Utomi posited. (Embassy Comment: Abuja has heard similar comments about the President's provincial focus and nature. However, there is a sense that he is being forced by virtue of his position to become more involved in regional issues. His recent statement in Addis at the AU Summit on the Gulf of Guinea Commission may signal his efforts to do that. End comment.) -------------- Ekiti Tribunals Set Legal Precedent; AC Senate Challenges PDP Governor -------------- ¶7. (C) Kayode Fayemi, Action Congress (AC) gubernatorial challenger in Ekiti State, told PolCouns on January 30 that the Ekiti governorship tribunal set a legal precedent for Nigeria by allowing forensic evidence of election rigging to be presented in court. The PDP "forgot to rig the Senate" in Ekiti and as a result, Fayemi said, the Senate and the Governor have been at odds since the elections. ¶8. (C) The PDP has also been unable to control local government elections thanks to a united AC front. The AC effectuated the removal of the State Independent National Election Commission (INEC) head, described by Fayemi as "a Siamese twin of the PDP" working for an organization that was "corrupt, biased, incompetent to put it mildly." INEC replaced him with a 73-year old woman with no electoral experience, but who is Obasanjo's next-door neighbor. ¶9. (SBU) Fayemi said the Oyo State by-election was further proof that INEC should not be involved with additional elections. Fayemi said the tribunals do not appear to be corrupt and the judiciary is Nigeria's only hope to "prevent Kenya from happening here." However, Fayemi noted that two chief judges who were seriously considering the vote-rigging evidence were transferred out of Ekiti during the tribunal proceedings. -------------- Afenifere Still Relevant, Says Chief LAGOS 00000044 003 OF 003 -------------- ¶10. (C) National Publicity Secretary of Afenifere (a pan-Yoruba socio-cultural group),Chief Supo Shonibare, told PolCouns that he has seen evidence of democratic progress in Nigeria but the April 2007 elections only weakened an already fragile democracy. He described the People's Democratic Party (PDP) "lunacy" of declaring victory in areas where they had no support. In Lagos State, the PDP was unable to "run over the system in place," Shonibare commented, because bribes by the PDP and the AC canceled one another out. He claimed Afenifere kept the elections from being rigged more than they were. ¶11. (C) Shonibare decried the abandonment of public and political space by Nigerians; he compared them to the Senegalese who never gave up and their struggles resulted in free and fair elections. When asked by PolCouns whether poverty has not hastened people's retreat from political space, Shonibare said people were poor in the 1960s but had faith in their leaders. Now, he commented, poor political leadership has driven people toward those who can provide hope, such as the churches or other religious figures. Shonibare was notably wary of the Muslim north, which he described as "unbalanced" in contrast to the Southwest. ¶12. (SBU) Shonibare told PolCouns Nigeria's state division lines exacerbate the Niger Delta conflict. In his opinion, Nigeria needs to devolve power to its six zones. When asked by PolCouns whether this would exacerbate unequal resource distribution, Shonibare dismissed the idea of the federal government as "Father Christmas" and stated that, in the past, each region had its own strength and economic resources--though he conceded the oil factor has distorted the economy. In his view, the six regions would hold states more accountable for fiscal spending. ¶13. (C) Afenifere members are internally debating whether to expand beyond the group's traditional Yoruba base, according to Shonibare. While some want to remain non-partisan and non-political, Afenifere is a successful instrument in Southwestern politics--so much so that former president Obasanjo wanted a role within the organization. Shonibare said Afenifere is trying to mend the split which followed the end of the Abacha military dictatorship in 1998, and is also trying to consolidate its role as preserver of Yoruba traditions. ¶14. (C) Comment: Our southern NGO guests were impressed by and echoed support for the election tribunals, perhaps as the only counterbalance to corrupt Nigerian elections. That Yar'Adua is an honest man, bound by more dominating individuals, who will continue to face questions of legitimacy until after the tribunal has been a recurrent comment in the south. Utomi's "shadow government" and hopes of institutionalizing political opposition with Buhari are commendable but may be difficult to implement. The constant refrain of hope in the tribunals is heard strongly in the Southwest. End Comment. ¶15. (U) This cable was cleared by Embassy Abuja. BLAIR