NIGERIA: ACTION CONGRESS PARTY SWEEPS LAGOS LOCAL ELECTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000431 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DOE FOR GPERSONS, CHAYCOCK TREASURY FOR DPETERS, RHALL, RABDULRAZAK COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS USDOC FOR 3130/USFC/OIO/ANESA/DHARRIS STATE PASS USTR FOR LISER, AGAMA STATE PASS USAID FOR NFREEMAN, GBERTOLIN STATE PASS OPIC FOR ZHAN, MSTUCKART STATE PASS TDA FOR LFITTS, PMARIN STATE PASS EXIM FOR JRICHTER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ACTION CONGRESS PARTY SWEEPS LAGOS LOCAL ELECTION POLL ¶1. (U) Summary: PolOff and PolSpec observed the Lagos State Local Government's (LASG) local election on October 11. In the 20 local councils and 37 Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs),the opposition Peoples Democratic Party and All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) refused to contest, and expectation of an Action Congress (AC) victory was the primary reason behind the low voter turnout. Lagos State's ruling AC party swept the polls, prompting criticism by opposition parties of the election process as nontransparent. End Summary. LCDAs: Bone of Contention between AC, PDP -------------- ¶2. (U) The former Governor of Lagos State Bola Tinubu (Action Congress Party) created 37 Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs) in October 2003, citing constitutional provisions which empowered state governments to create additional local councils. The Lagos State House of Assembly passed this into law in 2003. Since then, opposition parties, including the PDP and ANPP, had denounced the LCDAs' creation as unconstitutional. They argued that the 1999 Constitution listed 768 local government areas, including 20 local councils in Lagos State; therefore, the National Assembly needed to amend the Constitution to create additional local councils before Lagos State could take action on the ground. Tinubu and current Lagos State Governor Babatunde Fashola maintained that Lagos State had strictly complied with constitutional provisions guiding the LDCA's creation, but the National Assembly had failed to act accordingly. ¶3. (U) Former President Obasanjo (PDP) withheld budgetary allocations for Lagos 20 local councils after the LCDAs' creation in ¶2003. Tinubu challenged Obasanjo's action in the Supreme Court. The Court ruled against Obasanjo's withholding of allocation in the 20 constitutionally recognized local councils in December 2004. However, it held that the 37 LCDAs were not entitled to public funding due to their inconclusive status. (Note: President Yar'Adua released the withheld fund to the 20 local councils upon his assumption of office. End Note) Court Cases Clear the Way for October Election -------------- - ¶4. (U) The dispute between the PDP and the AC over the legality of the LCDAs postponed the local election from April 2007 to October 11, 2008. Leading up to the October 11 election the PDP submitted candidates only for the 20 local councils to the Lagos State Independent Electoral Commission (LASIEC). LASIEC rejected the list and insisted that the PDP needed to field candidates in all 57 councils. The PDP then sought an injunction against the election in Lagos State High Court, but lost its case on October 2 when the court cited the Supreme Court's December 2004 decision as the basis to rule in favor of LASG. With less than 10 days before the election, the PDP national headquarters directed its Lagos State branch not to participate, leaving the Democratic Peoples Alliance (DPA) and Accord Party as two primary opposition parties in the election. AC won all the chairman and the councillor positions in the election. Predictably, Voter Turnout Low -------------- ¶5. (U) Apathy and expectation for an AC victory among the voters primarily accounted for low voter turnout. Polling stations, scheduled to be open from 8am to 4pm, had between 500 and 1500 registered voters on the rolls. During the election monitoring exercise of about 40 polling stations on October 11, PolOff and PolSpec noted that most polling stations opened from 1000 to 1500 hour. With two hours left in the election, around half of the ballot boxes observed were virtually empty, and polling agents counted on average around 60 ballots per box for the other half. Of the fifty parties represented on the ballot, only party agents from the AC, DPA, and Accord parties were present at the polling stations. Most polling stations did not provide voters with any means to vote in privacy although they were under LASIEC's instruction to do so; only a few provided simple shields on the side of the voting area to provide a semblance of privacy. LASIEC's polling agents attributed the low turnout to heavy rain earlier in LAGOS 00000431 002 OF 002 the day and voters' confusion as to which polling unit they had registered and at which they could vote. (Comment: Only polling agents cited heavy rain and confusion, making it highly unlikely that these were the primary reasons for the low voter turnout. End Comment) Civil Society Faults LASIEC for Uncompetitive Election -------------- ¶6. (U) Civil society leaders faulted LASIEC for holding a nontransparent and uncompetitive local election. Olasupo Ojo, President of the Committee for the Defense of Human Rights, told PolOff October 10 that the process had neither been transparent nor open from the primaries to the election. According to Ojo, LASIEC had not been forthcoming with information regarding the party registration process and the final determination of the election date; ultimately, the opposition parties could not properly campaign. AC candidates, he posited, were hand-picked and pre-determined to win so they did not bother to campaign. Atinuke Ogundipe, Chairperson for the Lagos State Civil Society Coalition, told PolOff October 14 that there existed a great disconnect between the voters and the government as evidenced by the low level of participation in the local councils and LCDAs, the level of government closest to the grassroots. Ogundipe contended that people had no confidence in the electoral system due to the absence of any visible reforms. Professor Mojibayo Fadakinte of the University of Lagos, told PolOff October 10 that, while the process was admittedly flawed, the majority of the people were happy with the LCDAs' creation, generally perceive election to be a mere formality, and therefore did not mind an expected AC victory. ¶7. (SBU) Comment: While the relationship between Lagos and the Federal Government (FG) reportedly has improved under Governor Fashola (Action Congress) and President Yar'Adua, Lagos continues to challenge the FG on a host of issues. With regard to the recent local election, Lagos State Government's decision to conduct the polls in the disputed 37 LDCAs can be viewed either as a positive step to institute democratically-elected local leadership or as an AC-orchestrated political gimmick to legitimize its powerbase. Although election irregularities were impossible to observe, the low voter turnout was due at least in part to the PDP's decision to not participate. However, there is no question that the election process is in further need of reforms. End Comment. ¶8. (U) This cable was cleared with Embassy Abuja. BLAIR