ANPP LEADER: "NIGERIA IN A STATE OF INSTITUTIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAGOS 000377 SIPDIS STATE PASS USTR FOR USTR AGAMA STATE PASS USAID FOR GWEYNAND AND SLAWAETZ DOE FOR GPERSON,CHAYLOCK TREASURY FOR DFIELDS, AIERONIMO, RHALL DOC FOR 3317/ITA/OA/KBURRESS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ENRG ECON ELTN NI SUBJECT: ANPP LEADER: "NIGERIA IN A STATE OF INSTITUTIONAL COLLAPSE" Classified By: Consul General Donna Blair, Reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, the first civilian governor of Edo State and now a leader in the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP),told POLOFF and Polspec on September 10 that he believed Nigeria is "slowly sliding into anarchy" as a result of "institutional collapse" which he blamed on the ruling Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) system of corruption, leading to a decline in all public sector services such as roads, education and the lack of economic development. Odigie said that Nigeria needed a dramatic shock to shake it out of its decline, otherwise it will slide into anarchy or break apart at the first crisis. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Odigie-Oyegun told POLOFF and Polspec on September 10 that Nigeria was in a state of institutional collapse, pointing to the catastrophic power situation, the scandalous state of the roads, the serious deterioration of the public educational institutions, and the absence of meaningful economic development nationwide. He pointed out that at independence, Nigeria's level of development was comparable to that of Brazil and Korea, while Nigeria was decidedly more developed than India. Now Nigeria has to look up to and envy these countries, even India. ¶3. (C) Odigie blamed the ruling PDP for the current state of affairs. He argued that the PDP has internalized a value-system of greed and corruption without any aspect of national service. A party lacking patriotism could not effectively engage in nation building, he contended. The example of the leadership, he said, led inevitably to imitation by the led, and so all of Nigerian society was slowly being corrupted. Odigie suggested that as self-interest replaces national-interest, the risk of ethnic and religious strife grows, and so do the forces pulling the country apart. Odigie lamented the decline of the Nigerian Armed forces, which he said would no longer be capable of dealing with any threat to national unity. ¶4. (C) Asked if he saw no hope for Nigeria, Odigie said that only comprehensive electoral reform could force future governments to rule responsibly. "It is not," he said, "a matter of the opposition being any better than the PDP. It is the mere fear of losing an election that forces politician's to perform." Odigie says he is intensely disillusioned with the current administration, and sees little hope for improvement as long as Yar'Adua is in power. Odigie indicated he thought only some kind of "dramatic shock" would frighten the ruling elites into undertaking the necessary radical reforms. ¶5. (C) Comment: While Odigie has strong views on the state of affairs in Nigeria, his sentiments reflect his widespread sense of disillusionment with the last nine years of civilian government under Obasanjo and Yar'Adua's first year. Unfortunately, Odigie and other critics continue to wait for "something to happen" rather than to actively work to change things either with civil society or with government leaders. End Comment. ¶6. This cable was cleared by Abuja. BLAIR