NIGERIA: GOVERNOR IMOKE (PDP) WINS CROSS RIVER

UNCLAS LAGOS 000356 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE PASS USTR FOR USTR AGAMA STATE PASS USAID FOR GWEYNAND AND SLAWAETZ DOE FOR GPERSON,CHAYLOCK TREASURY FOR DFIELDS, AIERONIMO, RHALL DOC FOR 3317/ITA/OA/KBURRESS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: GOVERNOR IMOKE (PDP) WINS CROSS RIVER STATE RE-RUN ELECTION ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On August 23, Cross River State Governor Liyel Imoke of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) won the re-election ordered by a Federal Appeals Court on July 15. While the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) claimed the election was free and fair, opposition parties and election observers alleged massive election fraud. Even without fraud, opposition parties are often too financially handicapped to be able to mount a serious challenge to sitting governors. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) A new gubernatorial election in Cross River State was held on August 23, following a July 15 ruling by a Federal Appeals Court that voided the results of the 2007 election. Liyel Imoke of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who was elected governor in the 2007 election, was again declared the winner by INEC. According to INEC, Imoke won 650,723 votes while his closest rival, Paul Ukpo of the All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP),polled only 15,732 votes. ¶3. (SBU) Opposition politicians alleged that voter turnout for the new election was exceptionally low, reflecting voter apathy and making the figures published by INEC unsupportable. Theo Onyuko, spokesman for a coalition of opposition parties, told PolSpec that there was massive electoral fraud in several local government areas outside the capital city of Calabar. Onyuko also alleged that INEC officers connived with PDP agents to falsify election results. He said due to lack of resources, opposition candidates were not represented in many polling stations in remote rural areas, paving the way for the massive inflation of election results. ¶4. (SBU) Felicia Arikpo, head of the Calabar chapter of the independent election observation organization Transition Monitoring Group (TMG),likewise told PolSpec that voter turnout was very poor in all the polling stations she visited. Arikpo said that due to insufficient funds, TMG could not recruit enough volunteers to cover the election state-wide, frustrating TMG's plan to have comprehensive coverage of the election and publish a full assessment of the process and results. ¶5. (SBU) In an August 20 meeting prior to the election, the leading opposition candidate Paul Ukpo (ANPP) told Poloff and PolSpec that the ruling PDP government, aided by security agents and state officials, harassed and intimidated opposition candidates. He claimed he was denied access to state television and given no media coverage by other state-owned media. Ukpo complained further that security agents denied him the permission to hold campaign rallies. Ukpo stressed that while Imoke liberally drew on state resources, including official vehicles and police, to conduct his campaign, the opposition parties lacked the resources to effectively contest the election. ¶6. (SBU) Comment: As in similar elections, the re-run in Cross River State demonstrates a weakness in the current electoral review process. Having expended huge amounts of capital on the main election and the legal dispute that followed, many opposition parties are financially unable to effectively contest new elections. Thus even without election fraud, the ruling party candidate has an enormous advantage over all challengers, often rendering the results of re-elections a foregone conclusion. The apparent outcome is that the electorate sees these re-run elections as a farce and will become increasingly disillusioned with the democratic process. End Comment. BLAIR