NIGERIA: ENUGU GOVERNOR'S ELECTION NULLIFIED FOR

UNCLAS LAGOS 000018 SIPDIS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - HANDLE ACCORDINGLY SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W TREASURY FOR DPETERS, RHALL, RABDULRAZAK ENERGY FOR PERSON, GAY COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS STATE PASS USTR FOR LISER, AGAMA STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR KSAMPLE STATE PASS OPIC FOR ZHAN, MSTUCKART, JEDWARDS STATE PASS TDA FOR EEBONG, DSHUSTER STATE PASS EXIM FOR JRICHTER STATE PASS USAID FOR NFREEMAN, GBERTOLIN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ENUGU GOVERNOR'S ELECTION NULLIFIED FOR ELECTORAL LAW NON-COMPLIANCE ¶1. (U) Summary: The Enugu State Election Tribunal annulled the April election of Governor Sullivan Chime (People's Democratic Party) on January 18 on the grounds of gross electoral malpractice and non-compliance with the Electoral Act. Former Chime godfather Governor Chimaroke Nnamani (PDP) who broke with Chime over Chime's failure to accept his nominees at the state and local levels, has accused Chime of engaging in anti-party activities; Chime will appear before a PDP panel on January 22. Nnamani's faction will likely fight Chime's bid in a second election; however, Chime reportedly gained much popularity as governor and may win the popular vote in a second election, according to civil society contacts in Enugu. End Summary. ¶2. (U) The Enugu State Election Tribunal annulled the April election of Governor Sullivan Chime (People's Democratic Party) on January 18 on the grounds of gross electoral malpractice and non-compliance with the Electoral Act. Justice Samuel Otta delivered the ruling and was quoted in the local press as saying "non-compliance got to the foundation of the whole process of election and rendered the whole exercise null and void." The court ordered a new election within 90 days, according to press reports. ¶3. (SBU) Enugu-based civil society contacts admitted to the Consul General and PolSpec on January 21 that the April 2007 elections never occurred in most areas of the state and voting figures were simply manufactured. Nonetheless, our contacts said Chime had endeared himself to the populous through public works such as road maintenance. They also predicted Chime would likely win the popular vote in a re-election. (Comment: According to PolSpec's observations, road repairs and other public works projects were not readily apparent on the roads traveled during the Consul Generals's ongoing trip; he did confirm that conversations with locals revealed strong popular support for Chime. End Comment.) The civil society representatives predicted there would be two PDP factions contending during the second election: that of Chime and that of former Governor Chimaroke Nnamani (PDP). Chime, who had Nnamani's support during the campaign, rejected his godfather's proposed appointees and promoted his own followers in the state's local government elections. ¶4. (SBU) According to an Enugu-based lawyer and Dean of Enugu State University School of Law, Chime is scheduled to appear before a PDP panel in Abuja on January 22 to answer Nnamani's allegations that Chime was involved in anti-party activities such as supporting non-PDP individuals. While Nnamani appears to be trying to disqualify Chime from party membership, Chime could continue as governor for up to six months. Chime is expected to appeal the Tribunal's nullification, which would take between three and four months, and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has three months to hold new elections. Contacts predicted violence could follow a second round of elections no matter the victor. ¶5. (SBU) Comment: While it may be too early to speculate on the outcome of a second election, it appears Chime will face a stiff battle to maintain PDP party membership and the governorship. While it is a positive sign for Nigeria's nascent democracy that yet another less than perfect election has been overturned, and in this case (for the first time) on the basis of electoral malpractice and non-compliance with the Electoral Act, we question whether a second election can be accomplished without the same abuses. In addition, there is a real prospect of significant violence in such a rerun, given Nigeria's imperfect political process. End Comment. BLAIR