NIGERIA: UPDATE ON WEST AFRICAN GAS PIPELINE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAGOS 000167 SIPDIS DOE FOR GPERSON, CHAYLOCK E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2018 TAGS: EPET ENRG PGOV NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: UPDATE ON WEST AFRICAN GAS PIPELINE Classified By: Consul General Donna Blair for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The West African Gas Pipeline (WAGP) Company will replace Willbros as its primary pipeline contractor. The pipeline received its first natural gas for testing in late April and is expected to be begin free flow of natural gas by the end of May. Because it lacks compressors, the pipeline will be limited to transporting 60 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) until March 2009 at the earliest. Nigeria will likely supply 60 mmscfd if Shell can resolve gas quality issues, and Nigeria appears willing to meet it commitments to supply 133 mmscfd. Amounts above that are not assured. Demand is outpacing both the limited initial supply of gas and the final capacity of the completed pipeline. End Summary. New Contractor to Replace Willbros -------------- ¶2. (SBU) At a Center for Energy Economics seminar on energy regulation and investment in Abuja May 1-2, Alain Rossier, a USAID-contracted consultant to WAGP, confirmed that Willbros Company will be replaced by a new pipeline contractor. Willbros was the principal construction contractor for the much-delayed pipeline. Rossier did not name the new contractor, but said it should be in place by the end of May ¶2008. The pipeline still lacks compressors which severely limits its throughput capacity. The WAGP Authority, the inter-governmental body overseeing WAGP, now estimates that initial compression capability will be in place in March ¶2009. Rossier placed much of the blame for delays in finishing WAGP squarely on Willbros, who he accused of doing sloppy work, being difficult to work with, and unresponsive to the WAGP operating company. It is a sentiment shared by WAGP Authority officials. Pipeline to Run At Limited Capacity -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The pipeline received its first natural gas for final testing purposes on April 29. Because it lacks compressors, the pipeline will be limited to supplying 60 mmscfd, the amount of gas that can be transmitted at natural pressure levels. Two compressors are scheduled for installation by March 2009, but that will only raise WAGP's capacity to 170 mmscfd. With all five compressors installed, the pipeline's capability will eventually increase to 474 mmscfd. The original WAGP staggered compressor installation �A;through the year 2023. Commercial gas flow is scheduled to start at the end of May, however the &wetness8 of the gas remains a problem. Shell's gas has too much condensate (in industry terms it is too "wet") to go through WAGP without damaging the pipeline. (Note: WAGP receives gas from the Nigerian Gas Company (NGC) Escravos Lagos Pipeline, which moves gas from fields operated by Chevron and Shell in the western Niger Delta to the shoreline entrance of WAGP near Badagry, west of Lagos. As the gas travels through the underwater WAGP it cools, and any petroleum condensate and water vapor in the gas will condense and damage the pipeline. Even the shore-based Escravos Lagos Pipeline requires frequent "pigging" or cleaning because of the condensate problem. End Note.) Shell was supposed to commission new gas dehydration facilities this week, but an industry contact reports that technical problems have delayed the project. Gas Demand Issues -------------- ¶5. (SBU) As originally planned, the initial foundation market for WAGP was 133 mmscfd: 123 mmscfd for Ghana and 10 mmscfd for Benin. Demand for gas was projected to grow over time to reach the full capacity of the pipeline (at full compression) of 474 mmscfd. However, increases in projected gas demand by both WAGP customer countries and Nigeria, combined with delays in completing the pipeline have thrown those forecasts into disarray. Internal WAGP Authority documents detail an additional "urgent" demand for 2008 and 2009 of 100 mmscfd above the 133 mmscfd foundation market. That consists of three power projects that have purchased gas turbines and signed power purchase agreements: a project in Ghana that requires 60 mmscfd; one in Togo that requires 22 mmscfd; and a project in Benin that needs 18 mmscfd. In addition, the WAGP Authority estimates that there is already over 500 mmscfd in medium and long term demand based on projects in work or under consideration in Togo, Benin, and Ghana. Right now however, figures above 60 mmscfd are irrelevant because the pipeline is limited to that amount until March 2009 at the earliest. Plans to expand the total capacity of WAGP beyond 474 mmscfd, still mentioned in some WAGP documents and briefings, appear unlikely to materialize. (Note: Post lacks detailed information about fuel options, like diesel or fuel oil, available to WAGP customer countries to use in their power generation plants in place of natural gas. As a result, it is difficult to gauge from this vantage point the precise impact of the 60 mmscfd limit. End Note.) ¶6. (SBU) At the recent Abuja conference, when asked who was ready for gas, the Ghana representatives, including Ghana's utility regulatory commissioner, were adamant that they are ready right now to take the full amount they were promised. Representatives from Togo and Benin were notably quiet when asked if they had the equipment in place to receive natural gas from the pipeline. The often animated discussion notably lacked any suggestion of rationing of the limited 60 mmscfd supply available in the short-term. Although those present included regulators, legislators, and utility executives from the four WAGP countries, the review of WAGP was a last minute addition to a forum on energy infrastructure investment and regulation. It generated the most heated discussion in the otherwise dry 2-day conference. The conference wasn't specifically on WAGP and clearly the participants present had no authority or mandate to negotiate a deal. Indeed they seemed remarkably ill-informed about the status of such a vital project. Regular, frequent, and clear WAGP status reports for all stakeholders, like the briefing given by Rossier at the conference, would help alleviate some uncertainty in customer countries or at least facilitate better planning. Gas Supply Issues -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Chevron's natural gas manager told Econoff that an agreement among stakeholders to supply WAGP with 60 mmscfd was reached last week in London and he expects that amount to flow soon. The hold up remains the quality of Shell's gas. (Note: Because the eastern and western pipeline systems in Nigeria are not connected, companies with fields in the eastern Niger Delta, like Total or Agip, are not able to supply the Escravos Lagos Pipeline, and hence WAGP, with gas. In meetings on natural gas, Chevron officials repeatedly point out that the Nigerian government squelched a Chevron proposal to build an offshore pipeline that would have bypassed the Escravos Lagos Pipeline and connected WAGP directly to the company's western oilfields. End Note.) ¶8. (SBU) The Minister of State for Energy (Gas) Emmanuel Odusina has said that "Nigeria will honor it's commitments" on WAGP. The question is, what are Nigeria's commitments or maybe more importantly what does Nigeria think it commitments are? Nigeria's Gas Master Plan only briefly mentions WAGP and doesn't list specific quantities of gas to be supplied. In a recent version of the Gas Master Plan, one graph detailing export demand for Nigerian gas shows supplies to WAGP leveling off after 2009, implying that Nigeria has not planned for an increase beyond 133 mmscfd. However, the scale and quality of the graph make it difficult to determine an exact figure. While Dr. David Ige, Nigeria's lead gas planner, has told the WAGP Authority that gas supply to WAGP is considered part of Nigeria's domestic gas needs and not an export project, it is not clear whether he was referring to the 133 mmscfd foundation market or all the gas that WAGP will eventually be capable of handling. In a 2007 annual report, the WAGP Authority acknowledges that Nigeria "is not ready to supply more than the foundation volume of 133 mmscfd contracted by the foundation clients" in Ghana and Benin. That assessment is likely accurate. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The West African Gas Pipeline is not dead, but the concerned countries need to come to terms with the limited short-term capacity of the pipeline and enormous growth in demand. That may require discussions at a much level higher than the current WAGP Authority and company level talks. Regardless, the short term problem is a technical one; the pipeline can only handle 60 mmscfd and Nigeria will likely supply that amount, assuming Shell's gas is within pipeline tolerances. The experience of the international oil companies would indicate that, for all its posturing, Nigeria tends to honor its oil and gas agreements. That bodes well for a future supply of 133 mmscfd, if and when the compressors are installed. Amounts beyond that are still up in the air. ¶10. (C) It is a perceived need to keep natural gas for its own use that will drive Nigeria's reluctance to increase the amount of gas supplied to WAGP, not a desire to build more export liquefied natural gas plants as some industry insiders believe. It may also be that Nigerian politicians and regulators do not want to answer the inevitable and very reasonable question that would arise from the public, namely how can Nigeria manage to supply gas to power Accra, Cotonou, and Lome, and not be able to keep the lights on in Lagos, Kano, or Port Harcourt. End Comment. BLAIR