NIGER DELTA MILITANTS REJECT CEASEFIRE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000013

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA, DS/IP/AF, DS/ICI/PII, DS/DSS/OSAC
OSLO FOR HELENA SCHRADER
DOE FOR GPERSON, CAROLYN GAY
TREASURY FOR ASEVERENS, SRENENDER, DFIELDS
COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS
STATE PASS USTR FOR ASST USTR FLISER
STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR MARAD
STATE PASS OPIC FOR ZHAN AND MSTUCKART
STATE PASS TDA FOR NCABOT
STATE PASS EXIM FOR JRICHTER
STATE PASS USAID FOR GWEYNAND AND SLAWAETZ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGER DELTA MILITANTS REJECT CEASEFIRE

REF: ABUJA 23

Classified By: Consul General Donna Blair for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) Summary: The fragile peace agreement between the
Federal Government and Niger Delta militants began unraveling
in December 2007 and it now appears violence will escalate in
early 2008. Criminals (Ateke Tom),militants (the Movement
for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta and Tom Polo),and
government (General Azazi) have all warned that they are
prepared to use greater force to achieve their aims. These
announcements follow criminal and militant disillusionment
with the ceasefire, largely due to the use of military force
in the region (reftel) during the ceasefire. End Summary.

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Rivers: Ateke Tom & Governor Omehia Battle; Expect More
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2. (U) Rivers-based criminal leader Ateke Tom, who
purportedly leads the Niger Delta Vigilante Movement (NDVM)
as well as the New Niger Delta Revolutionary Army (NNDRA),
declared a showdown against Rivers Governor Amaechi in early
January following a military Joint Task Force (JTF) attack on
one of his camps. Tom said in a press release he would
"fight Amaechi to a standstill," despite the fact that the
JTF is controlled by the federal government, not the state.
Tom claimed responsibility for reprisal attacks on two police
stations and the Presidential Hotel in Port Harcourt on
January 1. Approximately 14 casualties were reported after
these attacks, which occurred the day government lifted the
2400 to 0600 hours curfew on the city.


3. (C) Patrick Naagbanton, a well-connected and reliable
human rights contact, told Poloff one of Ateke Tom's
commanders said Tom planned to continue his attacks. The
commander commented Tom had been ready for peace but that
Governor Rotimi Amaechi chose to "scatter it" (by attacking
Tom's base in Okirika--reftel) because he and Senator Sekibo
had political differences. (Note: Senator George Sekibo
politically favored former Governor Omehia and also publicly
criticized Amaechi's recent threats to the Okrika community
if they fail to handover Tom. End Note.) In order for peace
to return to Rivers, Tom's commander told Naagbanton that the
military should discontinue its attacks on Tom's camps and
government should call for a truce. Naagbanton commented to
Poloff that if Tom is pushed against a wall he will "wreak
terrible havoc" as his troops are heavily armed.


4. (U) According to press reports, Chief of Defense Staff
General O. Azazi ordered military formations in the Niger
Delta to begin an offensive against known militants and their
hideouts on January 9. Jomo Gbomo, the purported spokesman
of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta
(MEND),said in a press release that MEND would support Ateke
Tom with "fighters and heavy weapons" as fighting forces need
to unite against the "undisciplined Nigerian army."

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Delta: Polo Re-Arms After Leaving Peace Process;
Other Ijaw Push For Peace
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5. (C) Militant leader Tom Polo from Delta State publicly
renounced the Niger Delta Peace Process on December 25 after
having observed the ceasefire for six months. Well-connected
Sheriff Mulade, President of the Gbaramatu Youth Council
(GYC),told Poloff on January 10 that militants are scared to
return to negotiations for fear of being arrested, a fear
caused by the JTF's attack on Ateke Tom despite his ceasefire
with government. (Comment: Tom Polo's Camp 5 is located in

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the Gbaramatu Kingdom near Warri; Mulade claims to have
direct contact with Polo and many youths due to his
leadership role with the Ijaw GYC. Many Delta inhabitants
claim Dokubo Asari's arrest in September 2005 occurred under
the pretense of a ceasefire; their current concern is
understandable. End Comment.)


6. (C) Polo has begun re-enforcing his camps in anticipation
of a JTF attack and youths have been exchanging bunkered
crude for advanced weapons (including ground to air
capabilities) since they have no cash, Mulade alleged. He
said government officials from the Presidency down to state
commissioners are involved in bunkering and youths are used
to escort boats out of the creeks. While Mulade claimed
there are approximately 27 camps throughout the south-south,
he estimated 95 percent of these are run by criminals, not
individuals working for the Ijaw struggle.


7. (C) Many Ijaw want peace and Warri-based Ijaw groups have
recently requested Delta State Oil Producing Areas
Development Commission (DESOPADEC) Chairman Chief Okirika to
try to convince Tom Polo to scale down his activities.
(Note: Okirika and Polo have a good relationship as Polo
believes Okirika has the power and will to develop the
riverine areas. The creation of DESOPADEC in early-2007 and
Okirika's appointment shortly thereafter may have factored
into Polo's decision to join the ceasefire. End Note.)
However, Mulade admitted some militants may not want peace
because they are afraid of the unknown and fear becoming
irrelevant.

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Bayelsa Militants Back Out of GON Negotiations;
Hand Criminals to State Government
-------------- --


8. (C) Bayelsa state militants publicly renounced
negotiations with the Federal Government due to its continued
use of the JTF in the region but are purportedly maintaining
positive relations with Bayelsa State Government, according
to Dimeari Von Kemedi, Head of eGovernance and Due Process in
Bayelsa. Kemedi said the kidnapped father of the Deputy
Governor of Bayelsa State was released on December 19, after
9 days in captivity. Kemedi intimated that militants in
Bayelsa, not the police or JTF, arrested the criminals
responsible for the attack. He said they turned over the
Deputy Governor's father and the arrested individuals to the
state government to show their goodwill towards government.
Kemedi reported it was also discovered that a cabinet-level
state official was involved in this kidnapping for ransom but
he could not identify what action would be taken against this
unnamed individual. (Note: Another father was kidnapped
shortly after this release. End Note.)


9. (C) Jomo Gbomo claimed MEND did not support the
militants' December 6 signing of the Bayelsa Peace Conference
Agreement with the State Government. However, Kemedi told
Poloff Jomo's announcement was not "inclusive" of most
militants' opinions and that he was not concerned by this
statement. While there have been numerous public statements
issued by Jomo Gbomo over the past few months threatening
attacks throughout the Delta, few have occurred since the
ceasefire.

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Comment
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10. (C) The JTF attack on Ateke Tom clearly heightened
tensions between criminals, militants and the military.
Another military attack on Tom could result in substantial

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retaliations and possible collusion between Delta and Bayelsa
based militants and Tom for self-preservation. Conversely,
another criminal attack on the JTF could lead to even bolder
military operations throughout the region. Numerous reports
suggest militants are acquiring more advanced weapons in the
region; if this is true, future attacks could prove more
deadly and wide-spread than witnessed in 2006/2007. End
Comment.


11. (U) This cable was cleared by Embassy Abuja.
BLAIR