UKRAINE: KYIV MAYORAL ELECTION REMAIQHIGHLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 000975

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: KYIV MAYORAL ELECTION REMAIQHIGHLY
POLITICIZED

REF: A. KYIV 832


B. 07 KYIV 2813

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Mike Uyehara for reasons 1.4(
b,d)


1. (C) Summary. With the May 25 elections for the Kyiv
mayor's office and city council drawing nearer, heated
accusations of cheating and sabotage among the major players
are increasing as all prepare for the vote, the outcome of
which is still unpredictable. Also troubling, a majority of
members of the Central Election Commission (CEC) -- the
representatives of the Party of Regions, the Socialists, and
Communists -- refused to accredit U.S. Embassy, IRI, and NDI
personnel to observe the elections, although the
quasi-legitimate Moscow-based International Organization for
Fair Elections was registered without problem. After a tepid
response from Deputy CEC Chairman Andriy Mahera (OU/PSD)
produced no results, the Ambassador reached out to Regions'
leadership -- registration of the U.S. Embassy was then
approved within the hour. Many from the Presidential
Secretariat are warning that there could be provocations,
focusing their accusations on BYuT. In addition, the SBU
very publicly called former Kuchma Chief of Staff Medvedchuk
in for questioning about possible vote buying, just as
Presidential Secretariat Head Baloha and his deputies have
renewed the public accusations that Medvedchuk is now working
with PM Tymoshenko. Lytvyn Bloc, Klychko Bloc, and BYuT have
all complained that they have been victims of black PR and
other tricks to chase away voters. Election watchdog group
Committee of Voters of Ukraine (CVU) reported that it has
found no deep flaws in the election, although they criticized
the disorganization of the process and said there would be
incidents of vote buying.


2. (C) Comment. Widespread fraud is difficult to
accomplish and unlikely to occur, but with the stakes high in
the race to control Kyiv, which politicians view as an
important step in a successful presidential election campaign
(reftels),all parties will be ready to tarnish others'
results with accusations of cheating. Deputy Secretariat
Head Chaliy, Regions and OU-PSD MPs, and political analysts
have said this is a particularly important test for
Tymoshenko. Chaliy and an MP termed the election
Tymoshenko's possible Stalingrad, a major defeat in the
making. If Tymoshenko fails to gain a majority on the city
council, and to a lesser degree to generate high numbers for
Turchynov, many will claim her star is falling. We believe
the CEC may have been working to block monitoring because
parties that will not do well on Sunday -- such as Regions
and OU-PSD -- may want to level accusations of cheating at
those that do, especially BYuT -- which is easier to
accomplish if there are no unbiased observers present. End
summary and comment.

CEC Fiasco: Paperwork or Politics?
--------------


3. (C) The Embassy was notified on Monday, May 19 that CEC
had refused to accredit Embassy diplomats as observers under
a series of laughable pretexts. First, the CEC denied our
application because the cover letter was signed by the
Political Counselor and not the Ambassador. The Ambassador
signed a new cover letter, which was quickly faxed over to
the CEC, which was in turn rejected since it was a "fax". We
delivered the original copy in a timely matter per the CEC's
request, only to learn that the courtesy Ukrainian
translation was not official and, therefore, the cover letter
had to be rejected again. In the end, the CEC rejected the
Embassy's applications, along with those from IRI and NDI,
because eight of the fifteen Commission members abstained
from the vote, thus denying the required eight votes to pass
the motion. According to contacts in the CEC Protocol
Department, these requirements were being made up on the fly
by the eight members -- representing Regions, the Communists,
and the Socialist -- who ultimately abstained. (Note: In the
last presidential elections, two previous parliamentary
elections, and various municipal elections, this was not a
"requirement." We confirmed that a cover letter signed by
the Ambassador is indeed a recently adopted CEC protocol, so
while a pretext, the CEC's initial decision is technically
defensible; however, the subsequent requirements were not.
End note.)


4. (C) The Ambassador on May 21 spoke with Deputy CEC
Chairman Andriy Mahera (OU/PSD),who indicated that the CEC
was trying to hold a revote but he was not sure it would
occur. Interestingly, in his tepid response he offered his
assistance to help fill our application forms correctly in
the future to avoid "bureaucratic problems". Only after
Ambassador appealed directly to Deputy Head of the Regions

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faction, Serhiy Lyovochkin, were Embassy observers quickly
accredited, suggesting the problem was political rather than
bureaucratic. Unfortunately, despite the Ambassador's
inquiries, the CEC still has refused to accredit NDI and IRI.
Both were told that they were denied because they did not
properly identify themselves as international organizations.
(Comment: NDI and IRI have been observing elections in
Ukraine for over a decade so the reason for refusal, although
perhaps sustainable on a narrow technical ground, is clearly
a transparent pretext. End note) Both NDI and IRI are
appealing the initial decision and have also reapplied, but
the reapplications were submitted after the deadline (10 days
before the election) so the CEC stands ready to deny the
reapplications on that basis. We are continuing to appeal to
the CEC to grant observer status to both NDI and IRI
representatives. The CEC protocol office admitted to POLOFF
that technical reasons will be cited, but the decision to
deny NDI and IRI status is "pure politics." Curiously, the
CEC had no problems registering 53 observers from the dubious
Moscow-based group International Organization For Fair
Elections which will no doubt support anti-Tymoshenko
post-election "findings".

All Bracing for Accusations and Tricks
--------------


5. (SBU) Although the vote itself may go relatively
smoothly, major parties have been shaping public expectations
towards accusations of fraud. Most notable, although by no
means unique, are Presidential Secretariat accusations
against BYuT. Secretariat Head Baloha accused BYuT of
getting ready to disrupt the elections because they were not
going to get the results that they hoped for, and warned that
Tymoshenko was gathering forces for a second Orange
Revolution-like protest on the Maidan. Baloha also accused
Tymoshenko working with Medvedchuk to implement a vote-buying
scheme called Babylon, supposedly developed by the Russians.


6. (U) The power ministries have also become involved in
monitoring the election. Yushchenko met with the Kyiv
Prosecutor, Yevhen Blazhivskiy, on May 19 to discuss how to
counteract political corruption during the campaign and
elections. The SBU and Prosecutor General's Office then set
up working groups to investigate accusations of vote buying.
On May 22 Blazhivskiy's office announced that it had started
six criminal investigations into vote buying allegedly
committed by Regions, BYuT, Lytvyn Bloc and Klychko Bloc.
The SBU also publicly called in Medvedchuk to interrogate him
on his role in the Babylon plan. SBU Chief Nalyvaychenko
told the press that they had evidence that BYuT, Lytvyn Bloc,
and Omelchenko's bloc were testing the Babylon scheme among
university students.


7. (SBU) Interior Minister Lutsenko (OU-PSD) held a press
conference to say that he had cut his vacation short because
he was worried about "possible scenarios involving the use of
force .." and he wanted to make sure the police were ready.
Lutsenko, a longtime foe of front-runner incumbent mayor
Chernovetskiy, declined to give any specifics, but vaguely
referred to an efficiently organized system of buying votes
and said two Nigerians and another African were offering 300
UAH for a vote. Lutsenko was careful not to directly
implicate Chernovetskiy but, considering the mayor is a
member of the Embassy of God church run by a Nigerian
immigrant, the reference to Nigerians buying votes was a
thinly veiled shot across Chernovetskiy's bow.


8. (SBU) Candidates and parties have said they are the
victims of attacks and "black PR." For example, someone sent
invitations to schools supposedly on behalf of Lytvyn
candidate Viktor Pylypyshyn announcing free tickets to the
zoo and circus. Obviously, there was great disappointment
when families showed up and learned this was untrue. In
another incident, someone circulated fliers saying that
Klychko -- generally believed to be the only candidate with a
chance to beat Chernovetskiy -- was dropping out of the race
in favor of Turchynov. Klychko told the press that he did
not believe BYuT was behind the trick. A BYuT MP told the
press that Kyiv residents were receiving phone calls offering
them 300 hryvnia ($65) if they voted for Turchynov, which he
characterized as an attempt to smear the BYuT candidate.


9. (U) Despite all the accusations and tricks, independent
election watchdog Committee of Voters of Ukraine (CVU) issued
a preliminary assessment, which found the elections to be "..
transparent and competitive, although poorly organized .."
CVU cautioned that it expects to see direct voter bribing but
did not indicate which parties or candidates are the major
culprits. CVU said it was encouraged that the SBU and the
Prosecutor's Office are paying attention to voter fraud
issues, as the SBU has already documented 35 instances of

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vote buying. The organization noted that some election terms
have been violated; all leading candidates exceeded spending
limits, engaged in vote buying, and skirted other campaign
limitations. In spite of this, CVU noted that the violations
have remained minor and are not limited to a single
candidate, so it expects the elections to be relatively free
and fair.


10. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Pettit