UKRAINE: KYIV MAYORAL ELECTION REMAIQHIGHLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 000975 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UP SUBJECT: UKRAINE: KYIV MAYORAL ELECTION REMAIQHIGHLY POLITICIZED REF: A. KYIV 832 ¶B. 07 KYIV 2813 Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Mike Uyehara for reasons 1.4( b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary. With the May 25 elections for the Kyiv mayor's office and city council drawing nearer, heated accusations of cheating and sabotage among the major players are increasing as all prepare for the vote, the outcome of which is still unpredictable. Also troubling, a majority of members of the Central Election Commission (CEC) -- the representatives of the Party of Regions, the Socialists, and Communists -- refused to accredit U.S. Embassy, IRI, and NDI personnel to observe the elections, although the quasi-legitimate Moscow-based International Organization for Fair Elections was registered without problem. After a tepid response from Deputy CEC Chairman Andriy Mahera (OU/PSD) produced no results, the Ambassador reached out to Regions' leadership -- registration of the U.S. Embassy was then approved within the hour. Many from the Presidential Secretariat are warning that there could be provocations, focusing their accusations on BYuT. In addition, the SBU very publicly called former Kuchma Chief of Staff Medvedchuk in for questioning about possible vote buying, just as Presidential Secretariat Head Baloha and his deputies have renewed the public accusations that Medvedchuk is now working with PM Tymoshenko. Lytvyn Bloc, Klychko Bloc, and BYuT have all complained that they have been victims of black PR and other tricks to chase away voters. Election watchdog group Committee of Voters of Ukraine (CVU) reported that it has found no deep flaws in the election, although they criticized the disorganization of the process and said there would be incidents of vote buying. ¶2. (C) Comment. Widespread fraud is difficult to accomplish and unlikely to occur, but with the stakes high in the race to control Kyiv, which politicians view as an important step in a successful presidential election campaign (reftels),all parties will be ready to tarnish others' results with accusations of cheating. Deputy Secretariat Head Chaliy, Regions and OU-PSD MPs, and political analysts have said this is a particularly important test for Tymoshenko. Chaliy and an MP termed the election Tymoshenko's possible Stalingrad, a major defeat in the making. If Tymoshenko fails to gain a majority on the city council, and to a lesser degree to generate high numbers for Turchynov, many will claim her star is falling. We believe the CEC may have been working to block monitoring because parties that will not do well on Sunday -- such as Regions and OU-PSD -- may want to level accusations of cheating at those that do, especially BYuT -- which is easier to accomplish if there are no unbiased observers present. End summary and comment. CEC Fiasco: Paperwork or Politics? -------------- ¶3. (C) The Embassy was notified on Monday, May 19 that CEC had refused to accredit Embassy diplomats as observers under a series of laughable pretexts. First, the CEC denied our application because the cover letter was signed by the Political Counselor and not the Ambassador. The Ambassador signed a new cover letter, which was quickly faxed over to the CEC, which was in turn rejected since it was a "fax". We delivered the original copy in a timely matter per the CEC's request, only to learn that the courtesy Ukrainian translation was not official and, therefore, the cover letter had to be rejected again. In the end, the CEC rejected the Embassy's applications, along with those from IRI and NDI, because eight of the fifteen Commission members abstained from the vote, thus denying the required eight votes to pass the motion. According to contacts in the CEC Protocol Department, these requirements were being made up on the fly by the eight members -- representing Regions, the Communists, and the Socialist -- who ultimately abstained. (Note: In the last presidential elections, two previous parliamentary elections, and various municipal elections, this was not a "requirement." We confirmed that a cover letter signed by the Ambassador is indeed a recently adopted CEC protocol, so while a pretext, the CEC's initial decision is technically defensible; however, the subsequent requirements were not. End note.) ¶4. (C) The Ambassador on May 21 spoke with Deputy CEC Chairman Andriy Mahera (OU/PSD),who indicated that the CEC was trying to hold a revote but he was not sure it would occur. Interestingly, in his tepid response he offered his assistance to help fill our application forms correctly in the future to avoid "bureaucratic problems". Only after Ambassador appealed directly to Deputy Head of the Regions KYIV 00000975 002 OF 003 faction, Serhiy Lyovochkin, were Embassy observers quickly accredited, suggesting the problem was political rather than bureaucratic. Unfortunately, despite the Ambassador's inquiries, the CEC still has refused to accredit NDI and IRI. Both were told that they were denied because they did not properly identify themselves as international organizations. (Comment: NDI and IRI have been observing elections in Ukraine for over a decade so the reason for refusal, although perhaps sustainable on a narrow technical ground, is clearly a transparent pretext. End note) Both NDI and IRI are appealing the initial decision and have also reapplied, but the reapplications were submitted after the deadline (10 days before the election) so the CEC stands ready to deny the reapplications on that basis. We are continuing to appeal to the CEC to grant observer status to both NDI and IRI representatives. The CEC protocol office admitted to POLOFF that technical reasons will be cited, but the decision to deny NDI and IRI status is "pure politics." Curiously, the CEC had no problems registering 53 observers from the dubious Moscow-based group International Organization For Fair Elections which will no doubt support anti-Tymoshenko post-election "findings". All Bracing for Accusations and Tricks -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Although the vote itself may go relatively smoothly, major parties have been shaping public expectations towards accusations of fraud. Most notable, although by no means unique, are Presidential Secretariat accusations against BYuT. Secretariat Head Baloha accused BYuT of getting ready to disrupt the elections because they were not going to get the results that they hoped for, and warned that Tymoshenko was gathering forces for a second Orange Revolution-like protest on the Maidan. Baloha also accused Tymoshenko working with Medvedchuk to implement a vote-buying scheme called Babylon, supposedly developed by the Russians. ¶6. (U) The power ministries have also become involved in monitoring the election. Yushchenko met with the Kyiv Prosecutor, Yevhen Blazhivskiy, on May 19 to discuss how to counteract political corruption during the campaign and elections. The SBU and Prosecutor General's Office then set up working groups to investigate accusations of vote buying. On May 22 Blazhivskiy's office announced that it had started six criminal investigations into vote buying allegedly committed by Regions, BYuT, Lytvyn Bloc and Klychko Bloc. The SBU also publicly called in Medvedchuk to interrogate him on his role in the Babylon plan. SBU Chief Nalyvaychenko told the press that they had evidence that BYuT, Lytvyn Bloc, and Omelchenko's bloc were testing the Babylon scheme among university students. ¶7. (SBU) Interior Minister Lutsenko (OU-PSD) held a press conference to say that he had cut his vacation short because he was worried about "possible scenarios involving the use of force .." and he wanted to make sure the police were ready. Lutsenko, a longtime foe of front-runner incumbent mayor Chernovetskiy, declined to give any specifics, but vaguely referred to an efficiently organized system of buying votes and said two Nigerians and another African were offering 300 UAH for a vote. Lutsenko was careful not to directly implicate Chernovetskiy but, considering the mayor is a member of the Embassy of God church run by a Nigerian immigrant, the reference to Nigerians buying votes was a thinly veiled shot across Chernovetskiy's bow. ¶8. (SBU) Candidates and parties have said they are the victims of attacks and "black PR." For example, someone sent invitations to schools supposedly on behalf of Lytvyn candidate Viktor Pylypyshyn announcing free tickets to the zoo and circus. Obviously, there was great disappointment when families showed up and learned this was untrue. In another incident, someone circulated fliers saying that Klychko -- generally believed to be the only candidate with a chance to beat Chernovetskiy -- was dropping out of the race in favor of Turchynov. Klychko told the press that he did not believe BYuT was behind the trick. A BYuT MP told the press that Kyiv residents were receiving phone calls offering them 300 hryvnia ($65) if they voted for Turchynov, which he characterized as an attempt to smear the BYuT candidate. ¶9. (U) Despite all the accusations and tricks, independent election watchdog Committee of Voters of Ukraine (CVU) issued a preliminary assessment, which found the elections to be ".. transparent and competitive, although poorly organized .." CVU cautioned that it expects to see direct voter bribing but did not indicate which parties or candidates are the major culprits. CVU said it was encouraged that the SBU and the Prosecutor's Office are paying attention to voter fraud issues, as the SBU has already documented 35 instances of KYIV 00000975 003 OF 003 vote buying. The organization noted that some election terms have been violated; all leading candidates exceeded spending limits, engaged in vote buying, and skirted other campaign limitations. In spite of this, CVU noted that the violations have remained minor and are not limited to a single candidate, so it expects the elections to be relatively free and fair. ¶10. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. Pettit