UKRAINE: COALITION TEETERING, BUT ALTERNATIVES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KYIV 000902 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UP SUBJECT: UKRAINE: COALITION TEETERING, BUT ALTERNATIVES STILL UNCLEAR KYIV 00000902 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary. Cracks in the coalition appeared to widen May 12-13 as the two sides faced off in the Rada and in public comments from President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko. Privately, Tymoshenko told the Ambassador that coalition was de facto dead, because the President had set his sights on destroying her politically. To this end, he was trying to make inflation worse and blaming her -- as a result, her popularity ratings were dropping. The PM admitted that she was negotiating with Regions, as well as some in OU-PSD, to try to build support for her proposed constitutional reforms to move Ukraine toward a parliamentary system (that would give the PM more power at the expense of the President). After a May 12 Coordinating Council meeting in the Rada, during which BYuT and OU-PSD leaders traded mutual recriminations, BYuT blockaded the rostrum and Speaker's dais on the morning of May 13. Although Speaker Yatsenyuk opened the session from the floor, the blockade prevented Yushchenko from giving his annual address to the parliament. Instead, Yushchenko went to the press and criticized the Government and BYuT for breaking the agreement to hold his speech and not engaging in serious economic work; however, he also noted that the coalition had not yet "gone beyond the breaking point." In a subsequent televised speech by the PM and in conversations in the Rada halls, the official reason for the blockade was a demand for immediate passage of three anti-inflationary laws, which Tymoshenko said Yushchenko and OU-PSD were refusing to support. However, some in BYuT suggested that the real motivation was concern that Yushchenko planned to nominate and have sworn in three new Constitutional Court judges to fill long-standing vacancies on the presidential quota, which would give the Presidential Secretariat greater influence on the Court to block the PM's constitutional reforms. (Note. The CC's current judges were present in the Rada balcony. End note). OU-PSD MPs told us that BYuT was just trying to blackmail the President to gain the upper-hand rather than work through the established rules of the coalition. Meanwhile, grinning Regions MPs confided that they were waiting for Tymoshenko's dismissal so they could get on with forming a broad coalition. In their public comments after the failed Rada session, Yushchenko and Tymoshenko blamed each other for the current stalemate, but both indicated that they were committed to the democratic coalition and saw no alternatives. ¶2. (C) Comment. It is clear that these political games, which have gone on all year, will continue in the near term as the major players position themselves for either upcoming presidential elections or a new parliamentary system or even the possible formation of a new coalition. However, over the longer term Ukraine may be merely transitioning through an awkward stage on the road to democracy. All sides threaten and posture, but none so far has shown the capability or willingness to manipulate the system completely in its favor, which is why the Rada has managed to limp along in its work. It also appears that there are no better alternatives right now to the current coalition -- Regions is openly negotiating with both Tymoshenko and Yushchenko, but it does not sound like anyone has proposed an acceptable option. Yushchenko may want to dump Tymoshenko, but he does not want to suffer the electoral wrath for having destroyed the orange coalition, and he would prefer a new coalition without Yanukovych as Prime Minister. Tymoshenko too must show she made every effort to keep the government together. As the 2009/2010 presidential elections draw closer, especially if Tymoshenko takes a beating in the public polls, short-term calculations may change, but the current political circus is a distraction from the pro-European and pro-market path that all three major parties endorse as their longer-term goal. End summary and comment. Tymoshenko: The President is Trying to Destroy Me -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) A resolute Tymoshenko told the Ambassador on May 12 that the coalition de facto no longer existed. She said that Yushchenko has done everything he could to collapse the coalition, and she underscored that she believed it was the President who was the main problem, not Chief of Staff Baloha. She said that her team had patiently endured this behavior for four months, but now they were seeing a drastic drop in both Yushchenko's and her ratings. She said that this was Yushchenko's main goal, to lower her ratings before the 2010 presidential elections, but she did not understand his strategy because he had zero chance of winning reelection. He was doing everything he could to make inflation worse and then blaming the government for it. She listed the ways in which she believed Yushchenko was exacerbating inflation. First, the NBU's monetary policy -- KYIV 00000902 002.2 OF 004 the President's orders had stopped the NBU from adjusting the exchange rate, as a result experts said the exchange rate was adding 12% to Ukraine's inflation. (Note. She cited IMF, EBRD, World Bank, and Anders Aslund, although only the last to our knowledge has blamed the NBU alone. End note.) Moreover, governors were obligated to regulate pricing policy, but were not doing so on the President's orders. She believed she had a matter of weeks left before the coalition split, and it would definitely not live until 2010. Tymoshenko said that Yushchenko's end goal was a broad coalition with Regions. She doubted it would be possible to achieve MAP at the NATO Ministerial in December anymore, and even if they did, who would implement it -- Yanukovych?, she asked rhetorically. ¶4. (C) The PM argued that all sides, regardless of the ongoing political crisis, believed that the constitution needed to be amended. Her amendments would introduce a parliamentary form of government. Her team wanted major changes to the judiciary to make courts independent, as well as changes to local government and the Constitutional Court. In her draft, the President would be directly elected in 2010, would retain the veto and the right to dismiss the Rada, be commander in chief, coordinate foreign policy, chair the NSDC, and be the guarantor of the constitution. He would lose the power to appoint the Defense and Foreign Ministers, governors and raion heads, and judges, and he could no longer cancel Cabinet decisions. She said that she hoped half of OU-PSD would support her draft and acknowledged that BYuT was in negotiations with Regions for support as well. The PM underscored that cooperation with Regions on the constitution did not presage a coalition between the two, which she said would be impossible for ideological reasons. Tymoshenko said that they will table their constitutional amendments soon and hold the first vote quickly (on sending the draft to the Constitutional Court). She couldn't exclude the possibly that the President would use the introduction of her constitutional draft to ruin the coalition. Tymoshenko said that she had reached out to Presidential Secretariat Head Baloha on the constitutional amendments, but Baloha had suggested that she sit down with his deputy Pukshin and read through the constitution. She had been willing to do that, even though she considered the suggestion demeaning for protocol reasons, but then Pukshin had become unavailable. The PM believed that if she moved forward on constitutional changes, Yushchenko might also try to destroy the Constitutional Court. (Note. We heard this story from BYuT MPs in the Rada as well, see below. End note.) In this case, she could not rule out impeachment proceedings. This would be a shameful end to the democratic forces. Meanwhile, the irony was if the situation was left as is, in the next month or so, the democratic forces would each be inviting in Regions. She knew that the President was courting Akhmetov; she had been working with Yanukovych to gain support for constitutional changes. "It's absurd," she sighed. ¶5. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question about early presidential elections, Tymoshenko said she personally had proposed postponing the presidential elections until 2013 to allow the new constitution to come into force. But Yushchenko's team opposed this idea -- they were convinced they needed to fight to expand the President's powers, even though she thought this was completely unrealistic. She said that if Yushchenko kept stoking inflation, not only could he not win the next presidential election, but she would not be able to win either. She bemoaned the fact that even though inflation was a global problem, in most countries, governments worked with the opposition to mitigate inflation's effects, but in Ukraine the President was using inflation to drive apart his own coalition. Tymoshenko said she did not understand why the President had created the current situation -- he was a dying politician and he was trying to drag her down with him. She said that democracy was suffering in the region and meanwhile Russia was engaged in "abnormal activities" in Crimea. Many of the processes he had set in motion were irreversible and she did not know the right way to come out of this or what she could offer Yushchenko to end the current war. The PM suggested organizing a private roundtable with serious European politicians whom the President respected. They could explain to Yushchenko that he needs to cooperate with the Cabinet. In the Rada: BYuT Blockades, Rumors Swirl -------------- ¶6. (SBU) With the diplomatic and press balconies packed on May 13 in anticipation of Yushchenko's annual address to the Rada (postponed several times over the past few months for political reasons),observers were instead treated to BYuT blocking the rostrum, the President's seat, and the Speaker's KYIV 00000902 003.2 OF 004 dais. Speaker Yatsenyuk eventually entered the session hall from behind the Speaker's dais, opened the session without the aid of a microphone, registered 256 MPs in the hall (OU-PSD, Regions, Lytvyn Bloc),and recessed the Rada for the morning. He then met with Yushchenko, Tymoshenko, and BYuT MPs in his office, according to press reports. The Coordinating Council also met again in the afternoon, but MPs from Regions and OU-PSD told the press that no compromise was reached. ¶7. (C) In the halls, MPs from different factions offered their take on the situation. The first explanation for the stand-off was the ongoing dispute between the Prime Minister and the President over the head of the State Property Fund (SPF),with BYuT demanding that current official head Semenyuk be removed by the Rada before the President spoke. However, BYuT faction head Ivan Kyrylenko told the press that there was actually a dispute over three anti-inflationary bills submitted by BYuT. The faction either wanted the bills approved before Yushchenko's speech or a gentlemen's agreement to approve them immediately afterwards. However, BYuT MP Ostap Semerak told us that the anti-inflationary measures were just a pretext. BYuT's real motivation was concern that Yushchenko planned to introduce three new nominees to the Constitutional Court and demand their swift confirmation -- all three new judges would be allied with Baloha and thus could block Tymoshenko's constitutional reform. (Note. This tracks with what Tymoshenko told the Ambassador about being concerned that Yushchenko might tinker with the Constitutional Court. We did see most of the 15 sitting judges in the visitor's balcony in the Rada today, although they could have been there to hear the speech. End note.) ¶8. (C) OU-PSD MP Iryna Herashchenko told us that the blockade was political blackmail. BYuT wanted to demonstrate its power and push its constitutional reforms. She said that her faction was trying to work constructively with its coalition partner, but BYuT kept working outside the coalition agreement. For example, she said OU-PSD also believed constitutional reform should go through the Rada, but first the draft should be agreed to by the coalition council. In addition, her faction wanted a consultative referendum to demonstrate popular support for the new constitution. OU-PSD also supported removing Semenyuk from the SPF, but wanted a discussion of replacements within the coalition, rather than BYuT insisting on its preselected candidate. ¶9. (C) Regions MPs looked very pleased with the turn of events. Close Yanukovych ally Serhiy Lyovochkin told the Ambassador that they were happy to be in the position where Tymoshenko and Yushchenko were both trying to woo them. He thought that soon a resolution of no confidence in the current government might be introduced in the Rada and if it was, he expected it to pass. Lyovochkin said that everyone was tired of elections and that Regions would push for a broad coalition with Lytvyn Bloc and part of Our Ukraine. He added, however, that Yushchenko was probably waiting until Tymoshenko's ratings dropped down to around 14 percent before agreeing to let her go. MPs Hanna Herman and Taras Chornovil repeated to us the idea that there would be a new coalition, with Chornovil adding that he thought Tymoshenko would be gone this summer. He Said, She Said -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Instead of his formal address in the Rada, an irritated, but under control Yushchenko made brief remarks to the press from another room in the Rada building, which were broadcast on Rada TV. He stressed the danger of high inflation for the country and criticized the government for playing with the constitution when it should be solving this problem. He also said that an agreement had been reached the previous day that he would give his address and then the Rada would adopt the anti-inflationary measures --- therefore he believed BYuT had ulterior motives for blocking the Rada. However, he underscored that there would be no early elections or changes to the coalition and said the coalition had not yet reached the breaking point. He said the current coalition and government had an obligation to the voters to stick together and get to work. Yushchenko said their main priorities should be: anti-inflation measures, urgent budgetary amendments, urgent agricultural measures, and analysis of the situation in Nafothaz. He also said that constitutional amendments should be drafted in his National Constitutional Council, then submitted to the Rada for discussion and approval. ¶11. (SBU) A more visibly angry Tymoshenko then gave her own KYIV 00000902 004.2 OF 004 remarks to the press from the same podium. She said that her political force had blocked the rostrum because the Rada had refused to consider the anti-inflation bills. Tymoshenko noted that they had also been waiting four months for the Rada to examine the bill on lifting deputies' perks. She accused the President's team of playing politics with the welfare of the Ukrainian people. Specifically, she accused five unnamed regional governors of sabotaging the Cabinet's efforts to combat inflation and said they would consider these governors' actions at the May 14 CabMin meeting. (Note. The press later reported that the Cabinet had called the governors of Volyn, Kherson, Cherkasy, Zaporizhzhya, and Lviv, and the head of the Crimean government to the CabMin meeting. End note.) Tymoshenko made the same points she had made to the Ambassador regarding constitutional reform -- all sides believed it necessary because the current government system causes chaos. She closed with the same firm message as Yushchenko that there is no alternative to the democratic coalition and that the government and Rada would continue to work together. ¶12. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. Taylor