UKRAINE: KYIV MAYOR'S RACE HEATS UP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 KYIV 000832

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: KYIV MAYOR'S RACE HEATS UP

REF: 07 KYIV 02813

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Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) Summary. With early Kyiv mayor and city council
elections scheduled for May 25, and 150 candidates already
declared, the race to control the capital city is being seen
as an early showdown in the run-up to the presidential
elections in late 2009/early 2010. Prime Minister
Tymoshenko's BYuT is by far the most popular party in Kyiv,
but the strong possibility that Leonid Chernovetskiy could be
reelected despite her best efforts could be a blow to her
status. Both Tymoshenko and OU-PSD leader Lutsenko have been
pushing for Chernovetskiy's removal for more than a year and
made it a key electoral promise in 2007, but the coalition
has been unable to come to agreement on a single candidate.
Tymoshenko has put forward her loyal, but uncharismatic
deputy First DPM Oleksandr Turchynov, while Our Ukraine does
not have an official candidate, although some in the bloc are
backing former boxing champion Vitaliy Klychko, who is the
only real competitor for Chernovetskiy. OU-PSD's lack of a
candidate and President Yushchenko's opposition to the
election in general have prompted some to speculate that
Yushchenko's inner circle is quietly backing Chernovetskiy.
The current mayor remains the front-runner in large part
thanks to his social spending on the poorer parts of the
population and his control over local media. However,
Klychko told the Ambassador that if Chernovetskiy was
reelected, the new city council might refuse to swear him in,
as is their legal right, leading to further elections or a
backroom political deal.


2. (C) Comment. Kyiv is an important city to control with
huge financial and media resources, the seat of government
and the courts, a politically active population, and the
likely site of any protests after a national election. Many
have said the Kyiv mayor is the fourth most powerful
political position in Ukraine (after the President, PM and
Speaker). This election is made more interesting because
Tymoshenko has made it a test of her popularity and her
political machine -- by picking the uncharismatic and
unpopular Turchynov, she has made the elections a referendum
on her own political sway and all sides are watching to see
how she does. A victory -- which many would not define
solely as a Turchynov win, but as a strong Turchynov finish
-- would put her in a good position for the presidential
elections and strengthen her position vis-a-vis Yushchenko.
A failure would conversely weaken her standing some,
especially in current political negotiations both within and
outside the ruling coalition. In addition, with the
coalition unable to agree on a candidate and Chernovetskiy in
a good position to be reelected, it has once again been
demonstrated that personal and presidential ambitions have
overridden the coalition's common goal -- in this case
relieving Kyiv of a corrupt and controversial mayor. End
summary and comment.

Removing Chernovetskiy: A Longtime Goal
--------------


3. (C) Tymoshenko has been gunning for Chernovetskiy since
late 2006, when he convinced a number of BYuT city council
members to defect to his side; both she and OU-PSD leader
Lutsenko made Chernovetskiy's removal a key campaign promise
in September 2007 (reftel). This goal became number six on
the list of top legislative priorities in the coalition
agreement signed between BYuT and OU-PSD in November 2007.
Nevertheless, the coalition struggled to put the issue on the
Rada agenda and hold a vote. On March 12, the Cabinet
discussed corruption in the Kyiv municipal administration and
voted to ask Yushchenko to dismiss Chernovetskiy, although
five OU-PSD ministers -- DPM Vasyunyk, Emergencies Minister
Shandra, Family and Youth Minister Pavlenko, Agriculture
Minister Melnyk, and Justice Minister Onishchuk -- did not
support the resolution. On March 15, as controversy swelled
in the press and at Chernovetskiy's request, Yushchenko
temporarily suspended the mayor pending the outcome of an
investigation by a supposedly independent commission, chaired
by Vasyunyk and Deputy Head of the Presidential Secretariat
Bezsmertniy. The Rada established a similar investigative
commission on March 7. On-line newsite Ukrainska Pravda
noted that the bulk of the President's commission --
including representatives from BYuT and Lytvyn Bloc -- were
associates of Presidential Secretariat Head Baloha.

Tymoshenko Pushes Ahead in the Rada
--------------


4. (C) Perhaps sensing that Yushchenko would not support her
request, Tymoshenko turned to the Rada to oust Chernovetskiy.
In a surprise March 18 vote, 246 members of the Rada voted

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to call new mayoral and city council elections in Kyiv on May

25. The vote was supported by all of BYuT, all of the
Communists, six members of Lytvyn Bloc (including Lytvyn),
and 59 members of OU-PSD. Lytvyn deputy Oleh Zarubinskiy
told us that there was a behind-the-scenes deal between
Tymoshenko and Russian businessman Konstantin Grigorishin to
buy the Communists' votes. Zarubinskiy added that part of
his faction voted yes because they had their own candidate
for mayor, MP Viktor Pylypyshyn, who also heads the
Shevchenko district administration in Kyiv. The 13 OU-PSD
MPs who did not support the early elections were noticeable
for their links to Baloha and/or Chernovetskiy. Two MPs --
Stanislav Dovhiy and Anatoliy Matviyenko -- have a son and
nephew respectively who work for Chernovetskiy, and fought
particularly hard against the vote. Matviyenko told the
press that the decision would be overturned in court, an
opinion echoed by Baloha (however, this has not happened).

No United Candidate
--------------


5. (SBU) The Central Election Commission announced that it
has received 150 applications for mayor and as of April 21 it
had already registered 76 of them. Of these candidates, only
a few are serious. In a poll conducted at the beginning of
April by Ukrainian Sociology Services, Chernovetskiy came in
first with 25.4% support. He was trailed by former boxer and
Kyiv politician Vitaliy Klychko with 21.3%, former Kyiv mayor
(and current OU-PSD MP) Oleksandr Omelchenko with 10.7%,
European Party leader Mykola Katerynchuk with 7.8%, Turchynov
with 4.4%, and Pylypyshyn with 4%. It is striking that with
Chernovetskiy continuing to lead the pack, the coalition was
unable to back a single candidate, which has raised
speculation about whom the Presidential Secretariat actually
supports.


6. (C) BYuT MP and Kyiv city council member Volodymyr
Bondarenko told us that there had never been an agreement to
have one coalition candidate, which was why they had picked
Turchynov. Interior Minister Lutsenko repeatedly called on
the coalition to pick one nominee, but his own OU-PSD does
not even have its own candidate. Lutsenko himself had wanted
to be mayor, but with 3.6% in the polls, he decided not to
run. There are three OU-PSD MPs running -- Omelchenko,
Katerynchuk, and Pora leader Vladyslav Kaskiv -- but all are
self-nominated. Many in OU may be supporting Klychko, who
has ties to the orange camp and who almost beat Chernovetskiy
in 2006. The former boxer is backed by Kyiv businessmen
Dmytro Andriyevskiy and Lev Partskhaladze. Klychko took a
recent trip to New York City; he told the Ambassador on April
25 that he had met Rudy Giuliani, who had agreed to come to
Kyiv in mid-May and to act as an adviser if Klychko wins.
Klychko's press service announced that he also sought advice
from Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit. However, many say Klychko
lacks charisma, speaks Ukrainian poorly, and has weak public
speaking skills. Klychko issued a statement to the orange
coalition asking them to refrain from multiple nominations
because "the parade of nominees from BYuT, OU-PSD, and
Klychko's bloc had already undermined mutual respect and
triggered mutual accusations." Lutsenko tried to organize a
meeting between Klychko and Tymoshenko supporters on March
26, but the latter did not show up.


7. (C) Klychko told the Ambassador that he was speaking
regularly to Yushchenko, Tymoshenko, Akhmetov, and Yanukovych
-- all had offered conditional support, if Klychko would
agree to return favors later. However, Klychko stated that
he was an independent and didn't want to be beholden to
anyone, so the major political forces had all turned to other
candidates. He hoped that in the end Tymoshenko and some of
the OU-PSD candidates would realize that he was the only
candidate with a shot at beating Chernovetskiy and would
endorse him closer to the election. Klychko believed one of
the reasons Tymoshenko had decided she needed her own
candidate was to have leverage over Klychko closer to the
vote -- Turchynov might drop out, if Klychko agreed to
certain conditions.


8. (SBU) At an April 15 panel discussion, Kost Bondarenko,
head of the Gorshein Institute and new adviser to Rada
Speaker Yatsenyuk, said Klychko had the second best chance to
win, but if he did, Bondarenko did not believe he would be
significantly different than Chernovetskiy. Neither had a
lot of experience running a city and both came surrounded by
business interests. A Klychko victory would not alter the
quality of governance only the circle of businessmen
benefiting. BYuT MP Bondarenko told us that his bloc was
indeed concerned about some of the businessmen in Klychko's
circle, especially former Energy Minister Ivan Plachkov, who
was accused of engaging in corrupt energy deals. A second
political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said Klychko's rating had

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not grown since 2006, suggesting he faces a limit to his
popularity. In addition, Fesenko said that Yushchenko and
Tymoshenko both believed Klychko will be a weak mayor.

One Round or Two?
--------------


9. (SBU) A second dispute has broken out within the coalition
and with the President over whether the election should be
held in one round -- the current system -- or two.
Tymoshenko and most of the coalition are proposing amending
the law on local elections to make the mayor's race two
rounds, presumably because this would allow for a second
round between Chernovetskiy and the top vote-getter from the
orange team, increasing the chances of defeating the
incumbent. BYuT MP Bondarenko told us that the draft law --
introduced to the Rada by a number of BYuT and OU-PSD MPs --
would make two-round votes the norm for all mayoral elections
in the country. However, Yushchenko came out strongly
opposed to the idea and has promised to veto the law if it is
passed.

President's Real Agenda?
--------------


10. (C) Some in BYuT are charging that Yushchenko and his
inner circle are actually backing Chernovetskiy, who is
supposed to in turn provide financial and political support
to Yushchenko's reelection campaign next year. Critics point
to the Secretariat and OU's willingness to let a range of
candidates from their camp run -- which is expected to drain
support from Klychko -- as a sign that they do not actually
support Klychko. They also point to the President's
opposition to the two-round vote as support for
Chernovetskiy. Moreover, on April 24, Yushchenko said the
Rada resolution to hold new elections was ungrounded,
although he admitted the vote would go forward. On April 8
Baloha issued a letter saying that he strongly supported
Klychko and wanted Tymoshenko to do the same. However, some
have suggested Baloha may have been calculating that his
endorsement would be enough to convince Tymoshenko not to do
the same -- she came out the same day to announce BYuT would
nominate Turchynov. Klychko himself has openly accused
Yushchenko of favoring Chernovetskiy because the President
had not commented on the current mayor's corrupt deals and
did nothing to prevent the multiple OU candidates --
Yushchenko has never clearly expressed his opinion about
Chernovetskiy. BYuT MP Bondarenko also accused Katerynchuk
of taking money from business interests that want to see
Chernovetskiy reelected.

Don't Count Chernovetskiy Out
--------------


11. (C) Regions MP Miroshnychenko told us that Tymoshenko had
underestimated Chernovetskiy. Despite the jokes about
"Leonid Cosmos," the current mayor remains the most popular
candidate in the city. He could have appealed the Rada
decision in court, but chose not to, suggesting that he
accurately calculated that his opponents would be unable to
unite around a single challenger. Chernovetskiy has a stable
electoral base, which may even be growing as the result of
social spending and philanthropic activities. Throughout
2007-2008, Chernovetskiy's administration has distributed
food packages to pensioners and paid them periodic 100-200
hryvnia (USD 20-40) "bonuses." On the day the Rada voted to
call new elections, Chernovetskiy signed a decree to provide
an additional 50 hryvnia a month (USD 10) to 23,000 single
mothers. His administration also provides financial
assistance to WWII veterans and has given bonuses to doctors
and teachers. Chernovetskiy himself funds soup kitchens for
the poor. Ukrainska Pravda estimated that in total,
Chernovetskiy has provided additional financial resources to
600,000 residents, or 30% of voters. In addition,
Chernovetskiy has been putting up billboards since last fall
extolling the accomplishments of his administration. In
mid-April, he even took a "democratic ride" on the metro in
front of television cameras, forgoing his luxury Maybach
limo. Also of benefit is that despite all the accusations
that Chernovetskiy has engaged in illegal land deals, he has
never been charged with anything. There is an investigation
pending against unnamed officials in the Kyiv administration
for abuse of office while authorizing land sales, but
Chernovetskiy does not appear to be a subject of the
investigation. Klychko said he had already been to court
several times to complain that Chernovetskiy was violating
campaign rules by taking personal credit for the budget money
he was spending on pensioners -- acting as if the money was
coming out of his own pocket. He added, however, that as
long as the "bonuses" kept coming, many voters were willing
to overlook the rampant corruption in the mayor's office.

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12. (C) Chernovetskiy's other advantage is that so far he has
faced no negative television coverage. He has strong
influence over Kyiv stations (reftel) which have focused
newscasts on the conflict within the Rada coalition and with
the Prime Minister. In addition, Ukrainska Pravda wrote that
several national channels/media holdings -- including
Pinchuk's ICTV, Poroshenko's Channel 5, and Tretyakov's media
company Glavred, which includes Unian, Glavred, and Gazeta
Po-Kyivskiy among others -- have abstained from criticizing
the mayor. Chernovetskiy will also benefit from the fact
that the elections will be held during Kyiv Days, the last
weekend in May, when many residents, especially the younger
ones leave town for the weekend, thereby skewing the voting
population towards the older voters who tend to support
Chernovetskiy.


13. (SBU) Kost Bondarenko believed that Chernovetskiy might
be reelected, but that he would face a hostile new city
council. (Note. Most observers expect BYuT and Klychko bloc
to win a large majority on the city council regardless of who
becomes mayor. End note.) Therefore, Bondarenko argued,
another round of repeat elections might happen down the road.
Fesenko also believed that Chernovetskiy had the highest
chances of victory. Fesenko said Yushchenko and
Chernovetskiy do not have a great relationship, but that the
President may be satisfied to leave the current mayor in
office because Chernovetskiy could be a loyal mayor and
because Yushchenko does not have a good alternative candidate.

The Test for BYuT
--------------


14. (C) BYuT is by far the most popular party in Kyiv city,
but whether Tymoshenko can spin that into a victory for mayor
is far from certain. The bloc won 38% of the city's vote in
the 2006 Rada elections and 24.6% in the 2006 city council
elections and managed to improve, winning 46.2% in the 2007
Rada elections. Many observers and politicians have said
Tymoshenko has made this mayoral election a test of the
strength of her bloc and her personal popularity. By picking
an uncharismatic candidate who has no track record in Kyiv
city politics, she is hoping her stamp of approval will be
enough to raise his ratings. BYuT MPs have defended the
selection -- Semyonha told us that the First DPM was an
experienced administrator and professional economist, which
was what the city needed. However, Turchynov's ratings are
low. Moreover, his membership in the Baptist Church (he is
an ordained minister) have led to some jokes and comparisons
with Chernovetskiy's membership in the Embassy of God Church
and that "no one wants another pastor around here."


15. (SBU) Bondarenko and Fesenko both believed Turchynov
would come in around fourth place. Fesenko said that
Chernovetskiy had attracted the support of one third of BYuT
supporters in 2006 -- the question is who will win them this
time? If Tymoshenko can get rid of Chernovetskiy, she will
have a strong position in the city, but if she fails, she
will look weak and her image will be hurt. Fesenko argued
that the Kyiv mayor and city council races could serve much
the same role that the Mukacheve mayoral election did in 2004
-- an opportunity before the presidential elections to test
out strategies and technologies. Therefore, all eyes were on
Tymoshenko.

City Council Matters Too
--------------


16. (C) Klychko told the Ambassador that Tymoshenko's other
motivation in putting forward Turchynov was that every party
needed a visible leader if it was going to win city council
seats and this was a key BYuT goal. Fesenko also said that
Turchynov's candidacy would help BYuT win more seats.
Klychko explained that gaining a majority on the city council
held several attractions for all political forces, and
especially for BYuT, which is poised to win a plurality, if
not a majority. Kyiv city legislation stipulates that the
new mayor must be confirmed by 51% of the city council before
he can take office. If he is not confirmed, another round of
elections would be called. Klychko ally Andriyevskiy told
the press on April 22 that if BYuT and the Klychko Bloc hold
a majority in the new city council, they may refuse to swear
Chernovetskiy in, should he be reelected. Klychko told the
Ambassador that Tymoshenko's other strategy may be to use its
plurality/majority in the city council to force Chernovetskiy
to be more compliant. Klychko also believed that one reason
Yushchenko might be backing Chernovetskiy is because OU-PSD's
Kyiv ratings have dropped and their city council faction is
likely to be small, giving them little influence on a new
mayor -- better for the President to cut a deal now.


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17. (SBU) Given the role the city council might play, all
parties have stacked their lists with well-known figures.
Tymoshenko herself is heading the BYuT list, Lutsenko is
number one on the OU-PSD list, and even Regions padded its
top five with the Father Superior of the Kyiv Lavra
monastery, in addition to MPs Dmytro Tabachnyk and Inna
Bohaslovska. (Note. City council members are unpaid and
hold sessions only once every three or four weeks, allowing
MPs and senior government members to join without violating
the constitutional prohibition on holding two positions. End
note.)


18. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor