UKRAINE: TYMOSHENKO ENTERS CONSTITUTIONAL GAME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 000803

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: TYMOSHENKO ENTERS CONSTITUTIONAL GAME

REF: KYIV 00709

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Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) Summary. Prime Minister Tymoshenko has begun speaking
publicly and forcefully for transforming Ukraine into a
parliamentary system, possibly as part of an effort to force
President Yushchenko into cooperation and to take away the
President's lead in reforming the constitution. She first
raised the issue April 16 during an address to PACE in
Strasbourg -- the same day her Rada faction released its
ultimatum to Yushchenko to end his criticism of the Cabinet.
She has since elaborated about her ideas to the press, while
her faction leader Ivan Kyrylenko raised the idea of BYuT and
Regions jointly forming a constitutional commission within
the Rada -- a body that would have the necessary 300 votes to
override presidential vetoes and approve constitutional
amendments. Probably in response to Tymoshenko's strong
tactics, as well as to an April 18 Constitutional Court
ruling that a new or amended constitution cannot be approved
by referendum (but must be approved by the Rada),Yushchenko
canceled the April 23 National Constitutional Council (NCC)
meeting, where his team was scheduled to present its draft
constitution. Both Tymoshenko and MP Volodymyr Lytvyn have
indicated that the Rada may consider creation of its
constitutional commission when the Rada returns from its
holiday break on May 13. In a private conversation,
Yushchenko told the Ambassador that Tymoshenko's efforts to
start a parallel constitutional process was a game that would
not succeed. He also reiterated his public accusations that
the PM is abetted by former Kuchma Chief of Staff Medvedchuk
and Regions MP Shufrych.


2. (C) Comment. Tymoshenko's threats to cooperate with
Regions to weaken the presidency may give her some leverage
with the President as she tries to calculate her strategy in
the next few months. The Prime Minister may not really be
wedded to one specific model of governance, but by flexing
her muscles and showing that she could cooperate with Regions
to form a 300-vote constitutional majority to effectively
eliminate the presidency, she can exert some pressure on
Yushchenko's team. However, Tymoshenko has to carefully
consider what going into an alliance with Regions, even a
tactical one, will do to her image -- and therefore, her
preferred option may still be to strike a deal with
Yushchenko. Regions is also hoping to leverage the threat of
constitutional amendments to get more out of Yushchenko. In
any event, a consensus is needed between the three major
parties before any constitution can be adopted with
credibility and authority. End Summary and Comment.

Talk of BYuT-Regions Collaboration
--------------


3. (SBU) On April 9, Regions deputy faction leader Yefremov
announced that his party wanted to create an ad hoc
commission to reform the constitution within the Rada.
Regions leader Yanukovych added that his party had decided
not to participate in the NCC because they believed the
constitution should be amended inside the Rada. BYuT faction
leader Ivan Kyrylenko confirmed to the press that BYuT and
Regions were considering forming their own constitutional
commission within the Rada (ref A) to eliminate "dualism of
power in the executive branch." OU-PSD faction leader
Vyacheslav Kyrylenko said his faction opposed the idea and
the Rada agreed to postpone a decision on the issue until the
following week. At the April 14 coalition meeting, OU-PSD
asked BYuT to hold off on forming the Rada commission until
after the April NCC meeting, scheduled for April 23, which
BYuT agreed to do.


4. (C) Oligarch Viktor Pinchuk shared his views on
constitutional reform with the Ambassador on April 22. He
said that the real coalition to watch was the unofficial one
between BYuT and Regions, because they had been working for
two months now on changes to the constitution. One idea they
were working on was that the largest faction in the Rada
would select the Prime Minister and the second largest would
select the President, who would also be confirmed by the
parliament. Pinchuk presumed that if these changes were
implemented, there would be new Rada elections. (Note. New
elections would not be a requirement, but more a political
agreement presumably based on whatever system was agreed in
the new constitution. End note.)

Tymoshenko Takes it Farther
--------------


5. (SBU) Tymoshenko raised the idea of transforming Ukraine
into a full parliamentary system during her speech to PACE on
April l6. She said Ukraine should adopt a traditional

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parliamentary system like most European states have. Later,
speaking to journalists, she said BYuT would not push for the
complete elimination of the presidency as long as
constitutional changes were made. She held up Poland and
Germany as examples where there was a president, but most
powers were held by the Prime Minister and coalition, which
she said was a more transparent and democratic form of
government. The PM also said that was the only logical
position to have and that reforms should be done by the end
of the year. On April 20, Tymoshenko said on TV that she
thought the Rada would adopt in the first reading after the
Easter holidays (which end May 5) the constitutional changes
needed to make Ukraine a parliamentary system .

Yushchenko Denied Referendum, OU Responds Angrily to PM
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) Yushchenko's team continues to work on its draft
through the NCC, but on April 18, they were dealt a blow when
the Constitutional Court ruled that constitutional changes
could not be made via referendum, and that only the Rada had
the right to amend the constitution. Not surprisingly, BYuT
MPs welcomed the decision. However, on April 21, BYuT deputy
faction leader Tomenko said that both the NCC process and the
CC decision should be respected. He said the Presidential
Secretariat would present its draft at the April 23 NCC

SIPDIS
session and if a majority of NCC members voted in support,
then it would be the official NCC draft.


7. (SBU) Despite Tomenko's conciliatory comments, OU-PSD has
reacted strongly to Tymoshenko's comments and the possibility
of a Rada commission. OU-PSD faction leader Vyacheslav
Kyrylenko said on April 21 that BYuT's actions on
constitutional reform posed a threat to Ukraine's territorial
integrity, which at this point can only be protected by a
strong president. He said the parliamentary system supported
by BYuT, Regions, and the Communists would lead to
"collective irresponsibility and the unlimited power of
parliamentary oligarchic clans." He also asked BYuT to stop
trying to destroy the coalition by holding talks directed
against OU-PSD with the opposition. OU-PSD MP Stoiko said
that if BYuT and Regions went ahead with plans to form a
constitutional commission in the Rada, OU-PSD would consider
dissolving the coalition. (Embassy Note. In an April 15
meeting with the Ambassador, Presidential Secretariat Head
Baloha made the same statement. End Note.) BYuT expressed
surprise at Kyrylenko's strong comments.


8. (SBU) Political analyst and OU-PSD MP Oles Doniy and
Dzerkalo Tyzhnya journalist Serhiy Rakhmanin have both said
that they believe Tymoshenko's comments were political
blackmail to remind Yushchenko that the PM can gather 300
votes if necessary. Doniy also said that he believed almost
400 MPs supported amending the constitution solely in the
Rada -- including his own PSD and part of OU.

Yushchenko's Draft: Done but Delayed?
--------------


9. (SBU) Both Deputy Head of the Presidential Secretariat
Stavnichuk and presidential spokeswoman Vannikova told the
press that the April 23 NCC meeting was being delayed until
after the May holidays (meaning no sooner than May 12)
because Rada Speaker Yatsenyuk was ill and could not attend.
BYuT MP Portnov criticized the delay, saying that Yushchenko
had canceled the meeting on false grounds, Yatsenyuk was not
the only member of the council, and the President was showing
disrespect to other Council members. He then said BYuT would
move ahead with plans to form the Rada commission to reform
the constitution, and added that he was sure this would not
lead to the collapse of the coalition. OU-PSD MP Zvarych
also criticized the delay, saying Yatsenyuk's "illness" was
not a convincing reason to postpone the meeting and that a
number of "highly respected people" had gathered at the
Presidential Secretariat to discuss the amendments. Tomenko
said that Yushchenko postponed the meeting because he had
been dealt a blow by the CC ruling and his team was
recalculating its strategy. Lytvyn said he thought the delay
was due to "political differences, which have been discussed
lately, (and) are also visible within the Commission." He
also thought that the issue of establishing the Rada
commission would be discussed at the Rada's next plenary
session. (Note. The next session is currently scheduled for
May 13, although there has been some discussion of moving it
to May 6. As Speaker, Yatsenyuk has some power to affect the
agenda, possibly allowing him to stall on the creation of the
commission. End note.)


10. (C) At an April 24 meeting, Yushchenko told the
Ambassador that Tymoshenko's efforts to conduct a parallel
process to amend the constitution would break relations

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between the coalition parties, although he did not say it
would collapse the coalition. He repeated the accusations
that he and Chief of Staff Baloha have made in the press that
Tymoshenko is working with former Kuchma Chief of Staff
Viktor Medvedchuk and Regions MP Nestor Shufrych on their
version of the constitution, which they would bring to the
Rada commission. (Note. Shufrych is reputedly Tymoshenko's
former paramour, as well as a good friend and former party
associate of Medvedchuk's, which is supposedly why the three
are working together. End note.) Yushchenko argued that
Tymoshenko was treating the drafting of a new constitution
like a game, when it should be constructive and serious work.

What's In the Draft?
--------------


11. (SBU) After a meeting of the NCC working group on April
22, an anonymous member leaked some of the proposed details
of the new draft to the press. According to several press
accounts, the President's version of the constitution would
eliminate the need for a coalition. Instead, the largest
faction in the Rada would have the right to nominate the
Prime Minister. If that nominee was not confirmed, the next
largest faction would make a nomination. In the event of a
second failure to confirm, the President would have the right
to make the nomination -- refusal to confirm the President's
nominee would allow the President to disband the Rada. In
addition, under the proposed amendments, the President would
no longer nominate the Foreign and Defense Ministers.
Another amendment would eliminate the position of oblast
state administration head -- governors would be elected by
raion and city councils.


12. (SBU) The unnamed source said that disputes within the
working group remained on several items, including:
constitutionally defined neutral status for Ukraine; state or
official status for Russian language; a new system of
parliamentary and local elections; dual citizenship;
bicameral legislature; and popular veto (Yushchenko's
suggestion that laws could be overturned by popular vote).


13. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor