UKRAINE: REGIONS PROPOSES PACKAGE TO UNBLOCK RADA,

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 000408

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: REGIONS PROPOSES PACKAGE TO UNBLOCK RADA,
BALOHA QUITS PEOPLE'S UNION OUR UKRAINE

REF: KYIV 359

Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4, b,d.


1. (C) Summary and Comment: The Rada failed to open as
scheduled on February 21 with Regions continuing to blockade
the rostrum. However, opposition leader Yanukovych proposed
an end to the blockade in exchange for positive Rada
consideration of ten legislative initiatives. A
parliamentary roundtable is scheduled for February 25 to
discuss the proposal; it is possible that the Rada could
resume work on February 26. Meanwhile, strains continue to
appear within the orange coalition with the February 19
resignations from the main constituent party of the OU-PSD
bloc, People's Union Our Ukraine (PUOU),of Presidential
Chief of Staff Baloha, deputy chief of staff Bezsmertniy, and
five OU-PSD Rada deputies. These resignations do not change
the balance of power in the Rada or threaten the coalition
(only resignations of OU-PSD or BYuT deputies from the
faction would do that),and President Yushchenko vowed
publicly that the coalition was viable and working, but all
are watching to see what will happen within the orange team
next. End Summary and Comment.

Rada Blockade Continues; Regions Offers a Way Out
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2. (C) Rada Speaker Yatsenyuk's February 21 meeting with
Regions faction leader Yanukovych resulted in a proposed way
ahead with a Regions-suggested end to the blockade of the
Rada's work in exchange for coalition support for a package
of Regions-supported legislation. During the meeting, which
was broadcast by the parliament's TV channel, Yanukovych put
forward ten explicit legislative initiatives (list at para 4)
for consideration. (Comment: Yanukovych never made an
explicit quid-pro-quo proposal on unblocking the Rada,
leaving uncertainty on whether the ten initiatives are
considered a take-it-or-leave-it package. Regions is likely
to gauge the possibilities for success before deciding
whether this is a package deal or a negotiations starting
point. End Comment.) Yatsenyuk told the press that he
intends to meet with the Lytvyn bloc and Communist party on
February 21 and with the governing coalition on February 22
to discuss the Regions' proposal. The proposal will then be
discussed at a February 25 parliamentary round-table, which,
if a consensus is reached, could allow the Rada to resume its
legislative work on February 26.


3. (SBU) Reaction to Regions' proposal from the coalition was
not positive. OU-PSD Rada deputy Yaroslav Kendzyor and his
BYuT colleague Volodymyr Yavorivskiy both said that today's
developments should not be viewed with "any degree of
optimism." Kendzyor noted that although Regions leadership
was trying to demonstrate in public their willingness to take
conciliatory steps, "behind the scenes they are still doing
all they can to break apart the coalition. It is another
delaying tactic, otherwise they would have agreed to unblock
the Rada earlier." (Embassy Note. The Rada last met
February 13 and if it does not meet within 30 days, by our
count, approximately March 14, then the President will
theoretically have the ability to dissolve the Rada and call
new elections. However, a separate constitutional provision
notes that the President does not have the right to call a
new election within one year of previously-held pre-term
elections, so no new elections earlier than October 1, 2008.
It is unclear as to which provision would take precedence.
End Note.)


4. (SBU) Below is the full list of legislative initiatives
proposed by Regions (full texts not yet available):

- Resolution on Procedure for Examining NATO-Related
decisions: (Note: the resolution draft text says that
Ukraine's decision on joining NATO (no reference to MAP)
should only be taken after a national referendum.

- Amendments to the Law on Status of Some State Officials:
pertains to immunity of officials.

- Amendments to the Law on Status of National Deputies:
pertains to immunity of Rada members. Former Justice
Minister Lavynovych (PoR) noted during the meeting with
Yatsenyuk that the bills would allow the arrest of the
President and MPs only after a court verdict was reached.
The current coalition draft would allow for arrest before
trial.

- Package of five social bills, including minimum subsistence
level, "social dialogue", and Labor Code.

- Bill to protect Russian speakers in Ukraine (protest

against obligatory Ukrainian dubbing of all foreign movies).

- Bill to invalidate the State Procurement Law.

- Resolution on termination of powers of Rada members

- Amendments to the Rada Rules of Procedure pertaining to the
rights of the opposition

- Amendments to the law on Civil Service (stop politically
motivated dismissal of state officials

- Information on political repression

Baloha and five MPs quit People's Union Our Ukraine
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) Presidential Secretariat Head Viktor Baloha's
February 15 announcement that he was resigning from the core
party within the Our Ukraine bloc (PUOU - People's Union Our
Ukraine) did not surprise many in Kyiv since Baloha had only
joined the party in late 2006 when President Yushchenko had
asked him to come in and take over the leadership of the
party temporarily. Baloha had never gotten along with the
party leadership and had disagreed with them, often publicly,
on numerous issues. Baloha's written statement that
accompanied his resignation starts off saying nice things
about the party, but then says it doesn't really hold any
future for him. The statement went on to say that Baloha had
his own political ambitions, which he believes will all be
fulfilled, but that he will remain at the Secretariat and by
President Yushchenko's side for a long time.


6. (C) The February 19 official announcement of Baloha's
resignation from PUOU was more surprising because six others
resigned with him including Presidential Secretariat Deputy
Head Roman Bezsmertniy, a long-time political advisor of
Yushchenko and head of the unsuccessful 2006 Our Ukraine
parliamentary campaign, and five OU-PSD deputies (all PUOU
members) Viktor Topolov, Ihor Kril, Vasyl Petyovka, Oksana
Bilozir, and Mykhailo Polyanchych. Their joint statement
noted "serious and irreversible negative tendencies" in the
party. The resignation also stated that, "We no longer
believe that our party leaders remain loyal to the President.
We have nothing to do in the company of those who have
changed their political preferences." When we asked
Bezsmertniy's long-time aide about the resignation, she told
us "don't worry about it. It means nothing." President
Yushchenko, while on an official visit to Paris, underlined
to the press on February 20 that the resignations would not
affect the viability of the governing orange coalition, a
position seconded by OU-PSD deputy Oleksandr Chornovolenko
(Rukh) who noted that "the coalition is formed of factions,
and not individual deputies."


7. (C) Comment. The resignations are from the PUOU party
only and all five deputies remain members of the broader
OU-PSD parliamentary faction. According to Rada rules,
deputies must give up their seats only if they formally
resign from the faction. Therefore, the coalition remains in
place and the government is not a minority government. Of
the five deputies who resigned, Topolov, Kril and Petyovka
are all close associates of Baloha and were the same OU-PSD
deputies who delayed signing the coalition agreement during
the weeks leading to the formation of the orange coalition.
The main surprise was the resignation of Bilozir, a former
signer and someone long considered to be an OU stalwart and
close ally of the President. In her statement explaining her
resignation, Bilozir said that she was drawing attention to
the crisis in the party's internal situation, noting that
politicians don't want to take responsibility for "the
decisions made behind closed doors by a small group of
people, without taking into account MP's views and views of
ordinary party members."


8. (C) Comment continued. Baloha had earlier announced his
intention to form a new centrist party called "Great
Ukraine," leading analysts to speculate that his goal was to
"hollow out" OU-PSD following the failure of Yushchenko to
have all the constituent parties within the bloc consolidate
into a single party. The new Great Ukraine party could now
provide Yushchenko with an alternative platform from which to
launch his reelection campaign -- or could simply be a party
intended to promote Baloha's own personal ambitions.
Whatever the goal, the resignations and announcement of a new
political movement intended to draw from within the orange
team for its own support adds to the strains already evident
within the coalition. End comment


9. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.

Taylor