TYMOSHENKO ON THE ATTACK

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 002518

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: TYMOSHENKO ON THE ATTACK

Classified By: Ambassador William Taylor for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) On December 19 PM Tymoshenko upped the ante in her
ongoing political battle with President Yushchenko when she
declared herself in open opposition to him. Accusing him of
currency manipulation and other destructive activities in
concert with the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU),Tymoshenko
called on the President to resign. Until recently,
Tymoshenko had been open to political reconciliation with
Yushchenko -- her attempts to find common ground were
rebuffed. Rada politics has turned from the nascent Rada
coalition to the 2009 budget. Tymoshenko introduced the
draft budget on December 23. End Summary.

"Yushchenko Must Go"
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2. (C) On a December 19 political talk show, PM Tymoshenko
called on President Yushchenko to resign, citing his
involvement in currency manipulation and other destructive
activities, and declared herself in open opposition to the
president. BYuT MP Valeriy Pysarenko told us on December 23
that BYuT decided that Yushchenko needs to go before the end
of his presidential term in December 2009 because his
actions, blocking the government's work and manipulating the
currency, are too destructive to be allowed to continue.
Pysarenko said that, while Yushchenko maintains levers as
president, BYuT was "not interested" in continuing a
political fight with someone as weak as Yushchenko.
Yushchenko continues to lash out at Tymoshenko because
"that's all he has left," said Pysarenko. Pysarenko
concluded that Yushchenko was finished politically, and would
not be a factor in the next presidential election.


3. (C) Pro-coalition OU-PSD MP Volodymyr Ariev told us that
Tymoshenko is like a cat with "nine political lives." He
said she was being counted out two months ago, but has come
back even stronger against Yushchenko. Ariev noted that,
until recently, Tymoshenko remained open to reconciling with
Yushchenko but she was continually rebuffed by Yushchenko and
his allies. Repeating a common refrain, Ariev said that
Yushchenko has no plan or strategy for the country beyond
"destroy Tymoshenko." Ariev said that "we need to be rid of
Yushchenko" before he inadvertently destroys the country in
his quest to destroy Tymoshenko.

Advice to Yushchenko from a Regions MP
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4. (C) Party of Regions MP Vitaliy Hommutynyk told us that,
in light of the upcoming presidential elections, Tymoshenko
is doing everything right politically. Echoing what other
Regions contacts privately told us regarding their earlier
opposition to the new coalition, Hommutynyk said that Regions
would oppose Tymoshenko and her new budget because "that is
our job in the opposition." Hommutynyk expressed admiration
for Tymoshenko's political acumen, saying that she has "great
political potential." He suggested that Yushchenko's best
avenue for political survival would be to reconcile with
Tymoshenko and try to become PM if she becomes president.
Hommutynyk said he thought Tymoshenko had a 50 percent chance
at winning the 2009 presidential election -- Yushchenko has
no chance.

Comment
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5. (C) Tymoshenko's call for Yushchenko's resignation is yet
another step towards the December 2009 presidential
elections, and is reminiscent of the Yushchenko camp's
attacks on Tymoshenko in August 2008, which included
allegations of treason. The 2009 budget has replaced the
Rada coalition as the political football du jour. Mutual
blame and recriminations between the two former political
allies are likely to continue, even intensify, well into the
new year.
TAYLOR