AND THE BAND PLAYED ON: RADA STALEMATE CONTINUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 002383

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: AND THE BAND PLAYED ON: RADA STALEMATE CONTINUES

REF: A. KYIV 2305

B. KYIV 2294

Classified By: Ambassador William Taylor for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) On December 4 the Ukrainian parliament (Rada) voted
to invite President Yushchenko and PM Tymoshenko to an
extraordinary session on December 9 to discuss the "situation
in the country." The Rada once again was unable to find
consensus on a new Speaker, and voted to close the session
after an eight minute discussion (Ref A). Kyiv was rife with
speculation that PM Tymoshenko's Bloc (BYuT) and Party of
Regions (Regions) had agreed to form a coalition with Regions
head Viktor Yanukovych as Rada Speaker. Rada contacts told
us that Yanukovych balked at inking a deal at the last
minute. Regions announced they will continue to negotiate
through the weekend, and BYuT expressed confidence that a
deal could be reached. A sub-group of Our Ukraine-People's
Self-Defense (OU-PSD) MPs have renewed their efforts to
convince a majority of the faction to vote for a
BYuT/Lytvyn/OU-PSD coalition before BYuT and Regions can make
a deal. President Yushchenko continues to oppose any
rapprochement with BYuT. End Summary.

Eight Minute Rada Session
--------------


2. (C) The Rada will remain without a Speaker until at least
December 9, as factions were unable to find consensus yet
again and the December 4 session was closed after eight
minutes. The Rada has been paralyzed since the November 12
ouster of former Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk, since no Rada
legislation can be sent to the President without the
Speaker's signature. The Rada voted to continue meeting in
plenary next week, and factions announced that they would
continue to negotiate through the weekend. Before the
session closed, 353 MPs voted to invite President Yushchenko
and PM Tymoshenko to address an extraordinary session of the
Rada December 9 to review "the situation in the country."

Regions Backs Away from BYuT: Deal Still Possible?
-------------- --------------


3. (C) In the days leading up to the December 4 plenary
session, Kyiv was rife with speculation that BYuT and Regions
had finally settled on terms for a new coalition, with
Tymoshenko retaining her PM position and Yanukovych moving to
the Speaker's chair. In an interview on December 3,
Yanukovych stated that he was exploring a BYuT/Regions
coalition as a way to protect the Ukrainian people from
economic catastrophe. Vice Speaker and Regions MP Oleksandr
Lavrynovych opened the December 4 plenary by announcing that
factions were unable to reach consensus on either a new
Speaker or a new coalition.


4. (C) BYuT MP Kostyantin Bondareev told us that Yanukovych
and a large portion of the Regions faction had agreed to the
deal, but was persuaded to back away by Regions MPs loyal to
oligarch Dmitry Firtash (Ref B),part owner of RosUkrEnergo
(RUE) and Tymoshenko foe. They reportedly convinced him that
Regions should attempt to carve out a better deal with
Yushchenko. Regions MP Volodymyr Makayenko told us that
others within Regions did not understand why the party would
agree to a coalition without Yanukovych as PM, adding that
all the Speaker position would give Yanukovych is a public
position to sign anti-crisis legislation "that hurts regular
Ukrainians."


5. (C) BYuT MP Valeriy Pysarenko said that, today's events
notwithstanding, BYuT and Regions have agreed on about 90
percent of the details necessary to form a coalition -- "only
technical details remain." After the session closed, Regions
MP Hanna Herman said that Regions was ready to move "from
consultations to active negotiation" and expressed hope that
a deal could be reached over the weekend. Regions later
announced that they had assigned official negotiators to work
with all other factions. Herman mentioned that any
negotiation with BYuT must include discussions on the PM
position. In a shift from BYuT's previous public position,
Pysarenko said that BYuT was ready to discuss all positions,
including the PM.


6. (C) Makayenko claimed that support within Regions for an
alliance with BYuT was far from unanimous. Regions MP Serhiy
Lyavochkin, a Firtash ally, announced that Regions would only
agree to a coalition if Tymoshenko gave up her PM position -
a possible poison pill in the negotiations. He conceded that
voluntarily giving up her position was a step she would be
unlikely to take. There is also disagreement within BYuT
about a coalition with Regions. Transport Minister and BYuT
member Yosyp Vinskiy announced he would resign if such a
coalition deal were reached. Serhiy Sobolev, BYuT deputy
faction head and head of the Reforms and Order Party, told us
that he hopes the two factions do not unite. He said he
would rather give up all power than be a party to Regions'
resurgence.

Yushchenko Courting Chaos: Can OU-PSD Go Around Him?
-------------- --------------


7. (C) In a press conference December 4, Yushchenko announced
that a Regions/BYuT coalition was a serious threat to
democracy, as the coalition would be intent on changing the
constitution to weaken the presidency - a move Yushchenko
said he would continue to fight. Makayenko dismissed
Yushchenko as an obstructionist, interested only in holding
onto the presidency. He told us that Yushchenko wants
neither Tymoshenko nor Yanukovych as PM, as both are
presidential aspirants, so he will not make any deal to break
the Rada's paralysis, and will do everything to block any
deal done without his blessing. Andriy Yermolaev, Director
of local think tank Sofia Center for Social Studies, told us
that, if BYuT and Regions agree to a coalition, Ukraine
should expect a flood of Kompromat (information intended to
compromise or discredit someone) against BYuT and Regions
members to be made public by the President's allies.


8. (C) OU-PSD MP Kyrylo Kulikov told us that the potential
BYuT/Regions agreement has given new impetus to the insurgent
OU-PSD MPs to attempt to form a coalition with BYuT, Lytvyn
and a majority of OU-PSD. He said that support for their
efforts remained at 33 MPs, but that a number of MPs could
possibly be convinced to come to their side to head off a
BYuT/Regions coalition. Pysarenko noted that, while BYuT is
negotiating with Regions, his party would still be interested
in uniting with Lytvyn and OU-PSD. OU-PSD deputy faction
head Taras Stetskiv called on Yushchenko to "lift his ban" on
such a grouping.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The current political stalemate has now dragged on
for over three months. Whether the mutual distrust among top
political figures can abate long enough for a new coalition
to finally form -- perhaps BYuT-Regions at this stage --
remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the economic forecasts are
ominous, making the lack of a stable governing coalition
needed to deal with the situation ever more glaring.
TAYLOR