NATO MAP: UKRAINE BEGINS LOWERING EXPECTATIONS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 002269 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2018 TAGS: NATO PGOV PREL UP SUBJECT: NATO MAP: UKRAINE BEGINS LOWERING EXPECTATIONS FOR DECEMBER Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The Presidential Secretariat has begun to de-emphasize the importance of receiving a MAP invitation at the December 2-3 NATO Foreign Ministers' meeting in Brussels. Deputy Secretariat Head Honcharuk on November 18 said failure to receive MAP in December would not be a "tragedy." MFA contacts informed us that the concept of alternative paths to membership raised by Secretary Gates and others in Tallinn had generated interest. Foreign Minister Ohryzko, in Brussels for November 18-19 meetings at NATO, would want to gather more information on the idea. End Summary. Secretariat Lowering Expectations -------------- ¶2. (C) Deputy Presidential Secretariat Head Andriy Honcharuk on November 18 said that failure to receive a MAP at the December 2-3 Foreign Ministers' meeting in Brussels should not be "over-dramatized." He added that keeping the door open for future membership consideration was key and that Ukraine would continue to "work within the framework of annual plans" to strengthen its cooperation with NATO. Ukrainian media also reported a November 18 statement by Ukraine's Ambassador in Moscow, Kostiantyn Hryshchenko (who remains First Deputy Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council). Hryschchenko underscored that Ukraine would only be in position for NATO membership once a majority of its citizens supported this move -- something he admitted was currently not the case. Serhiy Dzerdzh, head of the leading pro-NATO NGO "Civic League NATO-Ukraine," told us that he saw the Honcharuk and Hryshchenko statements as a concerted effort by the Presidential Secretariat to "lower the temperature" on the NATO MAP issue heading into the December meeting. MFA on MAP Alternatives -------------- ¶3. (C) MFA NATO Deputy Director General Vadym Prystaiko told us November 18 that Kyiv had taken on board the signals sent by Secretary Gates and others in Tallinn at the November 12-13 NATO-Ukraine Commission High Level Consultations regarding paths to membership other than MAP. Following the Tallinn meeting, FM Ohryzko tasked Prystaiko with drafting options papers, including on possible non-MAP alternatives, in preparation for his November 18-19 visit to Brussels to attend the NATO-Ukraine Commission meeting. Prystaiko added that Ohryzko would also seek a meeting with SYG de Hoop Scheffer. However, the FM would not pursue individual meetings with Allies in order not to interfere in what he assumed were intense internal discussions. ¶4. (C) Prystaiko added that the MFA understood that one potential way forward was through using an enhanced or revised Annual Target Plan (ATP) in place of a MAP, an idea that he said had been sporadically raised in various forms in Brussels and Kyiv over the past year. He said that the MFA understood the need to regain momentum at the December meeting, but noted that within the Ministry this proposal raised some concerns as "skeptical" Allies (Prystaiko mentioned Germany) might agree to the approach initially, only to later ask for MAP anyway. These concerns meant that Ohryzko might want to explore whether retaining MAP -- with a negotiated lengthy time-frame before membership consideration -- was still possible. ¶5. (C) MFA is continuing its outreach efforts, with Prystaiko and NATO Director General Osnach traveling November 26-27 to Vilnius and Paris respectively. Prystaiko underlined that MFA leadership understood the need to engage directly with Allies and not channel its efforts solely through the US. He noted that Ukraine would continue to rely heavily on the Balts to maintain communications channels with all Allies. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Honcharuk's statement indicates that President Yushchenko appears, finally, to be aware of how small a chance Ukraine has of receiving MAP in December, and is lowering domestic expectations accordingly. Ukrainian officials have not (or at least not yet) rejected the concept of alternative paths to NATO membership apart from MAP as a rebuff. The Tallinn Ministerial improved chances for a December Foreign Ministerial in which Ukraine is reassured of Alliance commitment to its Euro-Atlantic integration -- with or without MAP. TAYLOR