NATO MAP: UKRAINE BEGINS LOWERING EXPECTATIONS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 002269

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2018
TAGS: NATO PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: NATO MAP: UKRAINE BEGINS LOWERING EXPECTATIONS FOR
DECEMBER

Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) The Presidential Secretariat has begun to de-emphasize
the importance of receiving a MAP invitation at the December
2-3 NATO Foreign Ministers' meeting in Brussels. Deputy
Secretariat Head Honcharuk on November 18 said failure to
receive MAP in December would not be a "tragedy." MFA
contacts informed us that the concept of alternative paths to
membership raised by Secretary Gates and others in Tallinn
had generated interest. Foreign Minister Ohryzko, in
Brussels for November 18-19 meetings at NATO, would want to
gather more information on the idea. End Summary.

Secretariat Lowering Expectations
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2. (C) Deputy Presidential Secretariat Head Andriy Honcharuk
on November 18 said that failure to receive a MAP at the
December 2-3 Foreign Ministers' meeting in Brussels should
not be "over-dramatized." He added that keeping the door
open for future membership consideration was key and that
Ukraine would continue to "work within the framework of
annual plans" to strengthen its cooperation with NATO.
Ukrainian media also reported a November 18 statement by
Ukraine's Ambassador in Moscow, Kostiantyn Hryshchenko (who
remains First Deputy Secretary of the National Security and
Defense Council). Hryschchenko underscored that Ukraine
would only be in position for NATO membership once a majority
of its citizens supported this move -- something he admitted
was currently not the case. Serhiy Dzerdzh, head of the
leading pro-NATO NGO "Civic League NATO-Ukraine," told us
that he saw the Honcharuk and Hryshchenko statements as a
concerted effort by the Presidential Secretariat to "lower
the temperature" on the NATO MAP issue heading into the
December meeting.

MFA on MAP Alternatives
--------------


3. (C) MFA NATO Deputy Director General Vadym Prystaiko told
us November 18 that Kyiv had taken on board the signals sent
by Secretary Gates and others in Tallinn at the November
12-13 NATO-Ukraine Commission High Level Consultations
regarding paths to membership other than MAP. Following the
Tallinn meeting, FM Ohryzko tasked Prystaiko with drafting
options papers, including on possible non-MAP alternatives,
in preparation for his November 18-19 visit to Brussels to
attend the NATO-Ukraine Commission meeting. Prystaiko added
that Ohryzko would also seek a meeting with SYG de Hoop
Scheffer. However, the FM would not pursue individual
meetings with Allies in order not to interfere in what he
assumed were intense internal discussions.


4. (C) Prystaiko added that the MFA understood that one
potential way forward was through using an enhanced or
revised Annual Target Plan (ATP) in place of a MAP, an idea
that he said had been sporadically raised in various forms in
Brussels and Kyiv over the past year. He said that the MFA
understood the need to regain momentum at the December
meeting, but noted that within the Ministry this proposal
raised some concerns as "skeptical" Allies (Prystaiko
mentioned Germany) might agree to the approach initially,
only to later ask for MAP anyway. These concerns meant that
Ohryzko might want to explore whether retaining MAP -- with a
negotiated lengthy time-frame before membership consideration
-- was still possible.


5. (C) MFA is continuing its outreach efforts, with Prystaiko
and NATO Director General Osnach traveling November 26-27 to
Vilnius and Paris respectively. Prystaiko underlined that
MFA leadership understood the need to engage directly with
Allies and not channel its efforts solely through the US. He
noted that Ukraine would continue to rely heavily on the
Balts to maintain communications channels with all Allies.


Comment
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6. (C) Honcharuk's statement indicates that President
Yushchenko appears, finally, to be aware of how small a
chance Ukraine has of receiving MAP in December, and is
lowering domestic expectations accordingly. Ukrainian
officials have not (or at least not yet) rejected the concept
of alternative paths to NATO membership apart from MAP as a
rebuff. The Tallinn Ministerial improved chances for a
December Foreign Ministerial in which Ukraine is reassured of
Alliance commitment to its Euro-Atlantic integration -- with

or without MAP.
TAYLOR