TYMOSHENKO CONTINUES TO PUSH ORANGE COALITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 002211

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: TYMOSHENKO CONTINUES TO PUSH ORANGE COALITION

Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Prime Minister Tymoshenko continues to push for a
renewed Orange coalition. She believes President Yushchenko
will block any new coalition and maintain his pursuit of
early parliamentary elections in the hope of reaching a deal
with the Party of Regions (Regions) to secure a second term
in office. Tymoshenko's solution for the political impasse
is a revived coalition of BYuT and OU-PSD, joined by the
Lytvyn bloc. Her scenario would have Volodymyr Lytvyn as
Rada Speaker, with current Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk
replacing Viktor Baloha as Yushchenko's chief of staff. END
SUMMARY.


PURSUING A NEW ORANGE COALITION
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2. (C) Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko told the Ambassador
during a November 5 meeting that her eponymous bloc (BYuT)
was still pushing for a renewed Orange coalition in the Rada.
She said that a revived coalition of BYuT, President
Yushchenko's Our Ukraine-People's Self Defense (OU-PSD) bloc,
and former Rada speaker Lytvyn's bloc is vital to addressing
the current financial crisis in Ukraine. She claimed Lytvyn
is eager to join a new coalition and so are 40 of 72 OU-PSD
MPs. Tymoshenko believes OU-PSD faction leader Vyecheslav
Kyrylenko, on orders from Yushchenko, is refusing to call an
official faction meeting to vote on renewing the coalition.
She said that "everyone" needs to convince Yushchenko to
rejoin a coalition with BYuT plus Lytvyn.


3. (C) Tymoshenko said that a new Orange coalition would
require some personnel changes. Rada Speaker Yatsenyuk
should replace Viktor Baloha as Yushchenko's chief of staff
and Lytvyn should return to the speaker's chair. Tymoshenko
said that Yatsenyuk is willing to take on a new role and that
only Lytvyn has the experience needed to handle the Rada
during this difficult time period.


A NEW RADA WILL BE DANGEROUS
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4. (C) Tymoshenko told the Ambassador that there was only a
fifty percent chance that a new Rada would turn out well.
Only a renewed Orange coalition could push forward
euro-atlantic integration and resist integration into the
Russian-backed Single Economic Space. She said Yushchenko
wants "elections, elections, elections, but that just leads
to chaos." Tymoshenko vowed "I won't let them hold
elections." Ambassador cautioned her to stay within legal,
constitutional, and democratic bounds.


YUSHCHENKO'S PLAN FOR ANOTHER TERM
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5. (C) Yushchenko is working with Regions to ensure himself a
second presidential term, according to Tymoshenko.
Yushchenko wants early Rada elections so that he can form a
"grand" coalition that would include a bloc under his
leadership, Regions, Lytvyn, and the Communists. He believes
this coalition would have the 300 votes needed to modify the
constitution in order to strengthen the presidency and elect
the president in the Rada rather than in a popular vote.
Tymoshenko said that Regions has told Yushchenko that they
would back him for a second term in office under this plan.
Yushchenko was not strong enough to control Regions and they
would probably renege on their promise to support his second
term. She said that after the constitutional changes are
made, Regions will elect former Prime Minister and Regions
party head Viktor Yanukovych as president. She believed that
forming a coalition with Regions and the Communists would be
the end of Yushchenko's political career.



6. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
TAYLOR