TYMOSHENKO CONTINUES TO PUSH ORANGE COALITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 002211 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL UP SUBJECT: TYMOSHENKO CONTINUES TO PUSH ORANGE COALITION Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b,d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Prime Minister Tymoshenko continues to push for a renewed Orange coalition. She believes President Yushchenko will block any new coalition and maintain his pursuit of early parliamentary elections in the hope of reaching a deal with the Party of Regions (Regions) to secure a second term in office. Tymoshenko's solution for the political impasse is a revived coalition of BYuT and OU-PSD, joined by the Lytvyn bloc. Her scenario would have Volodymyr Lytvyn as Rada Speaker, with current Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk replacing Viktor Baloha as Yushchenko's chief of staff. END SUMMARY. PURSUING A NEW ORANGE COALITION -------------- ¶2. (C) Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko told the Ambassador during a November 5 meeting that her eponymous bloc (BYuT) was still pushing for a renewed Orange coalition in the Rada. She said that a revived coalition of BYuT, President Yushchenko's Our Ukraine-People's Self Defense (OU-PSD) bloc, and former Rada speaker Lytvyn's bloc is vital to addressing the current financial crisis in Ukraine. She claimed Lytvyn is eager to join a new coalition and so are 40 of 72 OU-PSD MPs. Tymoshenko believes OU-PSD faction leader Vyecheslav Kyrylenko, on orders from Yushchenko, is refusing to call an official faction meeting to vote on renewing the coalition. She said that "everyone" needs to convince Yushchenko to rejoin a coalition with BYuT plus Lytvyn. ¶3. (C) Tymoshenko said that a new Orange coalition would require some personnel changes. Rada Speaker Yatsenyuk should replace Viktor Baloha as Yushchenko's chief of staff and Lytvyn should return to the speaker's chair. Tymoshenko said that Yatsenyuk is willing to take on a new role and that only Lytvyn has the experience needed to handle the Rada during this difficult time period. A NEW RADA WILL BE DANGEROUS -------------- ¶4. (C) Tymoshenko told the Ambassador that there was only a fifty percent chance that a new Rada would turn out well. Only a renewed Orange coalition could push forward euro-atlantic integration and resist integration into the Russian-backed Single Economic Space. She said Yushchenko wants "elections, elections, elections, but that just leads to chaos." Tymoshenko vowed "I won't let them hold elections." Ambassador cautioned her to stay within legal, constitutional, and democratic bounds. YUSHCHENKO'S PLAN FOR ANOTHER TERM -------------- ¶5. (C) Yushchenko is working with Regions to ensure himself a second presidential term, according to Tymoshenko. Yushchenko wants early Rada elections so that he can form a "grand" coalition that would include a bloc under his leadership, Regions, Lytvyn, and the Communists. He believes this coalition would have the 300 votes needed to modify the constitution in order to strengthen the presidency and elect the president in the Rada rather than in a popular vote. Tymoshenko said that Regions has told Yushchenko that they would back him for a second term in office under this plan. Yushchenko was not strong enough to control Regions and they would probably renege on their promise to support his second term. She said that after the constitutional changes are made, Regions will elect former Prime Minister and Regions party head Viktor Yanukovych as president. She believed that forming a coalition with Regions and the Communists would be the end of Yushchenko's political career. ¶6. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. TAYLOR