RADA PASSES FINAL ANTI-CRISIS LEGISLATION:

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 002191 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ETRD EFIN UP SUBJECT: RADA PASSES FINAL ANTI-CRISIS LEGISLATION: TYMOSHENKO PRESSES FOR RENEWED COALITION REF: A. KYIV 2166 ¶B. KYIV 1943 Classified By: Ambassador William Taylor for reasons 1.4 (b,d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On October 31 the Rada passed compromise anti-crisis legislation, a critical step towards Ukraine's receipt of a $16.5 billion IMF assistance package (Ref A). PM Yuliya Tymoshenko's BYuT and Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense (OU-PSD) voted with a majority of Lytvyn Bloc MPs to pass the legislation with 248 votes. Separate election-related legislation failed to muster the necessary 226 votes for passage. Tymoshenko expressed hope that the successful vote could re-energize efforts to form a BYuT/OU-PSD/Lytvyn coalition. Rada contacts said that Yushchenko's agreement on such a coalition remains highly unlikely, but other coalition options exist. End Comment. Rada Passes Anti-Crisis Legislation -------------- ¶2. (U) The Rada remained in session late into the evening of October 31 to work through 165 amendments to President Yushchenko's anti-crisis legislation and passed the complete legislative package in its second reading with 248 votes. Yushchenko's compromise legislative package was initially submitted on October 28 and passed in first reading on October 29. BYuT (154 of 156 MPs),OU-PSD (69 of 72 MPs) and Lytvyn Bloc (all 20 MPs) voted together to push through final passage on October 31. The legislation was signed by Rada Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk on November 3 and forwarded to President Yushchenko for his signature. ¶3. (C) The Rada rejected an OU-PSD sponsored election funding-related amendment, which garnered only 189 votes. Only 38 of 72 OU-PSD MPs voted for the amendment. They were joined by 150 of 172 Regions MPs and BYuT MP Igor Rybakov. Speaker Yatsenyuk told the Ambassador that he had worked out a compromise that allowed OU to bring their amendments to a floor vote without BYuT interference in exchange for a final agreement on the anti-crisis legislation. He intimated that he anticipated failure of the election amendments prior to the vote. Rada contacts told us that a number of Regions MPs aligned with Yuriy Tabachnyk and Andriy Kluyev turned against early elections when they found their names missing from a new draft Regions party election list. Renewed BYuT/OU-PSD/Lytvyn Coalition "Just Talk" -------------- --- ¶4. (C) Since former Orange allies OU-PSD and BYuT voted together on the anti-crisis legislation, PM Tymoshenko has again raised the possibility of a new coalition comprised of BYuT, OU-PSD, and the Lytvyn Bloc. She stated on November 2 that this coalition could be created "if there is good will on the part of the President." Privately, however, BYuT MP Valeriy Pisarenko told us that agreement with Yushchenko on this coalition option remained "almost impossible." Pisarenko stressed that any agreement from the Lytvyn Bloc was predicated on "Lytvyn in the Speaker's chair," a concession that OU-PSD would be unlikely to make. PSD MP Kyrylo Kulikov told us that with the current faction leadership it was "pretty difficult" to see a BYuT/OU-PSD coalition with or without Lytvyn. ¶5. (C) Pisarenko noted that BYuT continues to work towards finding a majority of OU-PSD MPs to sign a coalition agreement without Yushchenko's blessing (Ref B). Claiming that Yushchenko continues to lose support within his own faction, Pisarenko said that BYuT currently had 35 OU-PSD MPs signed on -- just two more would give the insurgent MPs a majority vote to join BYuT in coalition over Yushchenko's objections. Kulikov told us that supporters within OU-PSD are "working hard" to attract enough votes to their side. Pisarenko said that such a "coalition without a majority" is possible under the constitutional courts' September 2008 decision that a coalition is made up of factions, not individuals, and BYuT and OU-PSD factions together total 228 seats in the Rada. In effect, a majority of OU-PSD MPs would commit their entire faction to the coalition agreement -- but the minority of OU-PSD members who maintained loyalty to Yushchenko could choose not to actively support the coalition. "The Next Election Will Be the Presidential Election" -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Pisarenko told us that, as of now, he expects there will be no early parliamentary elections. He added that there is no funding for elections, the Central Election Commission (CEC) is not planning an election, and, because Yushchenko rescinded his decree, there is currently no "call" for elections. BYuT had "hundreds" of ways to legally block any attempts to hold elections, saying that they had already shown that they can "stop any decree in three hours in court." Pisarenko concluded that the President thinks he controls when elections are held, "but in reality we do". Igor Popov, head of the Committee of Voters of Ukraine agreed, telling us that BYuT could tie up elections in the courts "for years" if they wanted to. He added that the CEC is loyal to BYuT, and that BYuT MP Andriy Portnov "basically runs" the commission. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The Rada's passage of the anti-crisis legislation will help Ukraine secure IMF funding and attend to its looming economic crisis. BYuT is confident it can stop elections, and their plan to form a coalition with a majority of OU-PSD MPs could, if realized, further isolate Yushchenko. Tymoshenko said she would block elections, and so far she has, strengthening her position. TAYLOR