RADA PASSES FINAL ANTI-CRISIS LEGISLATION:

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 002191

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ETRD EFIN UP
SUBJECT: RADA PASSES FINAL ANTI-CRISIS LEGISLATION:
TYMOSHENKO PRESSES FOR RENEWED COALITION

REF: A. KYIV 2166

B. KYIV 1943

Classified By: Ambassador William Taylor for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

Summary
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1. (C) On October 31 the Rada passed compromise anti-crisis
legislation, a critical step towards Ukraine's receipt of a
$16.5 billion IMF assistance package (Ref A). PM Yuliya
Tymoshenko's BYuT and Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense
(OU-PSD) voted with a majority of Lytvyn Bloc MPs to pass the
legislation with 248 votes. Separate election-related
legislation failed to muster the necessary 226 votes for
passage. Tymoshenko expressed hope that the successful vote
could re-energize efforts to form a BYuT/OU-PSD/Lytvyn
coalition. Rada contacts said that Yushchenko's agreement on
such a coalition remains highly unlikely, but other coalition
options exist. End Comment.

Rada Passes Anti-Crisis Legislation
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2. (U) The Rada remained in session late into the evening of
October 31 to work through 165 amendments to President
Yushchenko's anti-crisis legislation and passed the complete
legislative package in its second reading with 248 votes.
Yushchenko's compromise legislative package was initially
submitted on October 28 and passed in first reading on
October 29. BYuT (154 of 156 MPs),OU-PSD (69 of 72 MPs) and
Lytvyn Bloc (all 20 MPs) voted together to push through final
passage on October 31. The legislation was signed by Rada
Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk on November 3 and forwarded to
President Yushchenko for his signature.


3. (C) The Rada rejected an OU-PSD sponsored election
funding-related amendment, which garnered only 189 votes.
Only 38 of 72 OU-PSD MPs voted for the amendment. They were
joined by 150 of 172 Regions MPs and BYuT MP Igor Rybakov.
Speaker Yatsenyuk told the Ambassador that he had worked out
a compromise that allowed OU to bring their amendments to a
floor vote without BYuT interference in exchange for a final
agreement on the anti-crisis legislation. He intimated that
he anticipated failure of the election amendments prior to
the vote. Rada contacts told us that a number of Regions MPs
aligned with Yuriy Tabachnyk and Andriy Kluyev turned against
early elections when they found their names missing from a
new draft Regions party election list.

Renewed BYuT/OU-PSD/Lytvyn Coalition "Just Talk"
-------------- ---


4. (C) Since former Orange allies OU-PSD and BYuT voted
together on the anti-crisis legislation, PM Tymoshenko has
again raised the possibility of a new coalition comprised of
BYuT, OU-PSD, and the Lytvyn Bloc. She stated on November 2
that this coalition could be created "if there is good will
on the part of the President." Privately, however, BYuT MP
Valeriy Pisarenko told us that agreement with Yushchenko on
this coalition option remained "almost impossible."
Pisarenko stressed that any agreement from the Lytvyn Bloc
was predicated on "Lytvyn in the Speaker's chair," a
concession that OU-PSD would be unlikely to make. PSD MP
Kyrylo Kulikov told us that with the current faction
leadership it was "pretty difficult" to see a BYuT/OU-PSD
coalition with or without Lytvyn.


5. (C) Pisarenko noted that BYuT continues to work towards
finding a majority of OU-PSD MPs to sign a coalition
agreement without Yushchenko's blessing (Ref B). Claiming
that Yushchenko continues to lose support within his own
faction, Pisarenko said that BYuT currently had 35 OU-PSD MPs
signed on -- just two more would give the insurgent MPs a
majority vote to join BYuT in coalition over Yushchenko's
objections. Kulikov told us that supporters within OU-PSD
are "working hard" to attract enough votes to their side.
Pisarenko said that such a "coalition without a majority" is
possible under the constitutional courts' September 2008
decision that a coalition is made up of factions, not
individuals, and BYuT and OU-PSD factions together total 228
seats in the Rada. In effect, a majority of OU-PSD MPs would
commit their entire faction to the coalition agreement -- but
the minority of OU-PSD members who maintained loyalty to
Yushchenko could choose not to actively support the
coalition.

"The Next Election Will Be the Presidential Election"
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6. (C) Pisarenko told us that, as of now, he expects there

will be no early parliamentary elections. He added that
there is no funding for elections, the Central Election
Commission (CEC) is not planning an election, and, because
Yushchenko rescinded his decree, there is currently no "call"
for elections. BYuT had "hundreds" of ways to legally block
any attempts to hold elections, saying that they had already
shown that they can "stop any decree in three hours in
court." Pisarenko concluded that the President thinks he
controls when elections are held, "but in reality we do".
Igor Popov, head of the Committee of Voters of Ukraine
agreed, telling us that BYuT could tie up elections in the
courts "for years" if they wanted to. He added that the CEC
is loyal to BYuT, and that BYuT MP Andriy Portnov "basically
runs" the commission.

Comment
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7. (C) The Rada's passage of the anti-crisis legislation will
help Ukraine secure IMF funding and attend to its looming
economic crisis. BYuT is confident it can stop elections,
and their plan to form a coalition with a majority of OU-PSD
MPs could, if realized, further isolate Yushchenko.
Tymoshenko said she would block elections, and so far she
has, strengthening her position.
TAYLOR