TYMOSHENKO BLOC IN EFFORT TO REUNITE ORANGE CAMP;

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 002112

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: TYMOSHENKO BLOC IN EFFORT TO REUNITE ORANGE CAMP;
YUSHCHENKO MAY FACE REVOLT IN HIS FACTION

Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) President Yushchenko announced on October 20 the
suspension of his decree dissolving the parliament, but still
called for early parliamentary elections December 14.
Yushchenko also called on the Rada to pass a package of
legislation to combat the worsening economic situation and to
amend the 2008 budget to finance early elections. The
Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) sees the suspension of the dissolution
decree as a narrow window of opportunity to reconstitute a
coalition with its erstwhile partner, the Our
Ukraine-People's Self Defense (OU-PSD) bloc. BYuT MPs note
the threat of a financial meltdown and the specter of losing
their seats appears to be turning many OU-PSD members against
their faction's leadership -- and Yushchenko. End Summary.



BYUT PURSUES OU-PSD
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2. (C) The suspension of President Yushchenko's dissolution
decree has opened a narrow window of opportunity for BYuT to
work with OU-PSD MPs to form a new majority coalition in the
Rada, according to BYuT MP Ostap Semerak. Semerak informed
us that 57 of 72 OU-PSD MPs voted on October 21 against
including Yushchenko's election funding request on the Rada's
agenda. Semerak claims the vote is a sign that a majority of
OU-PSD is now against early elections and open to a new
coalition with BYuT. BYuT MP Serhiy Sobolyev told us BYuT
waQworking with OU-PSD MP Katerynchuk to have these MPs
force OU-PSD faction leaders to enter into a revised
coalition with BYuT. He said that BYuT is assured that if
OU-PSD signs on to a deal, the Lytvyn bloc will also agree.
Adding the Lytvyn bloc's 20 votes to BYuT's 156 and the 57
prospective OU-PSD votes would create a 233-vote majority.


3. (C) Sobolyev said that BYuT's current effort to block the
rostrum in the Rada (to ensure no election funding is passed
before the 2009 budget and financial crisis legislation is
addressed) will also buy the bloc more time to clinch a
coalition deal. He underlined that even if a coalition deal
fails, BYuT will continue to delay early elections through
the courts. Sobolyev noted that although Yushchenko
announced that the pre-term election was being delayed until
December 14, no date was actually included in the President's
new decree.


ALTRUISM AND SELF INTEREST
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4. (C) OU-PSD MPs are worried about the effects of an
election in the midst of a domestic financial crisis and are
concerned that they may lose their seats, according to
Sobolyev. He said that the real scale of Ukraine's economic
situation is only now starting to become clear to most MPs in
the Rada. BYuT's commitment to countering the financial
crisis before deciding on elections is resonating with many
MPs. Semerak added that OU-PSD MPs are watching their
party's internal polls and are worried they will lose their
seats because of the sharp decline in support since last
year's election. OU-PSD MPs are also being impacted by
rumors swirling about who will and won't be included on the
new party list. Semerak said that BYuT thinks that a
majority of OU-PSD members are now willing to convene a
faction meeting and vote to force the faction leadership to
join with BYuT. If faction leader Kyrylenko refuses then he
could either be voted out or deputy faction leader Tarasyuk
could sign an agreement.


YUSHCHENKO LOYALIST'S REBUTTAL
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5. (C) Not all OU-PSD MPs agree with BYuT's assessment.
OU-PSD bloc MP Lyilyia Grigorovych of People's Union Our
Ukraine (PUOU) told us that most OU-PSD deputies support
Yushchenko's call for new elections. She said that almost
everyone in the Rada recognizes that elections are the only
democratic way to overcome the current political impasse.
Grigorovych acknowledged that the date of the election was
still unclear because of a lack of funding and legal
challenges, but she was sure that the election would happen
sooner rather than later. She said that Tymoshenko was
trying to make voters think that Ukraine's economic problems
are the result of Yushchenko's call for early elections and
that stopping the election would end the looming financial

crisis. Grigorovych felt strongly that all of Tymoshenko's
efforts are aimed at keeping her position as Prime Minister
so she can use government resources in next year's
presidential campaign.


COMMENTS
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6. (C) The economic difficulties facing Ukraine are beginning
to sink in for the country's legislators. Tymoshenko is
benefiting from lawmakers' reluctance to risk their seats by
campaigning as the threat of a financial meltdown looms. If
the vote of OU-PSD Rada deputies against considering election
financing can be taken as a vote against early elections,
then Yushchenko may face a revolt within his own bloc.
TAYLOR