TYMOSHENKO MEGA-COALITION PROPOSAL FALLS FLAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 002106

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UP
SUBJECT: TYMOSHENKO MEGA-COALITION PROPOSAL FALLS FLAT

Classified By: DCM James Pettit for reasons 1.4(b,d).

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Prime Minister Tymoshenko on October 19 proposed
creating a unity coalition of all parties in the parliament
to address the effects of the international financial crisis.
She asked President Yushchenko to rescind his order for
early parliamentary elections and support her proposal. Most
of the parties in the Rada dismissed her proposal as an
attempt to escape blame for worsening economic conditions and
to hold on to power prior to next year's presidential
election. END SUMMARY.


TYMOSHENKO'S MODEST PROPOSAL
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2. (U) In a televised address to the nation on October 19,
Tymoshenko proposed the creation of a unity coalition of all
parliamentary factions. Under the new so-called
"mega-coalition" the cabinet would be restructured to include
the best and brightest from all parties, but Tymoshenko
implied that she would retain the PM slot. She also proposed
incorporating representatives of the coalition into
presidentially appointed positions, such as the National
Security and Defense Council. Tymoshenko also called on
President Yushchenko to cancel his decree ordering pre-term
parliamentary elections, thereby allowing the Rada to
reconvene to pass legislation and revise the 2009 budget.
She assured Ukrainians that even if other factions reject her
proposal she will "never leave the battlefield" or "betray
the country."


MOSTLY ALLIES SHOW UP
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3. (U) Tymoshenko called on all party leaders to gather at
the Rada on October 20 to begin working on forming the
mega-coalition. In attendance at the meeting, besides
Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) representatives, were leaders from the
OU-PSD bloc component parties European Party, People's Self
Defense, Defenders of the Motherland, and Rukh, as well as
the Communist Party. Excluding the Communists, all the
parties that attended are considering joining BYuT to run in
the upcoming Rada election. The head of the Communist Party,
Petro Symonenko, used the gathered media to call for exiting
the WTO, joining Moscow's proposed Single Economic Space, and
deepening energy cooperation with Russia. The Party of
Regions, the Lytvyn Bloc, and Our Ukraine refused to attend.


THE DRUNK AND THE POLE
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4. (C) Party of Regions heavily criticized the Prime
Minister's proposal. Former Prime Minister and Party of
Regions head Viktor Yanukovych publicly said that
Tymoshenko's call for a mega-coalition was a desperate
attempt to stay in power: "she clings to her job like a drunk
clings to a pole." Deputy Faction leader and unofficial
Regions spokesperson Hanna Herman told us privately that a
new coalition would allow Tymoshenko to spread the blame for
her "ruinous" populist policies and that all Tymoshenko is
interested in is retaining her position prior to next year's
presidential election. Volodomyr Lytvyn echoed Herman's
criticism saying that Tymoshenko was attempting to shift
blame for the economic situation to others.


5. (U) Tymoshenko was also rebuffed by Yushchenko's Our
Ukraine party and the Presidential Secretariat. Outspoken
Our Ukraine MP Ksenya Lyapina said that the logical response
to the financial crisis would be to remove the government
that is responsible. She called for the elections to go
forward so that not just a few members of the cabinet are
swapped, but the Prime Minister too. Lyapina said that
Tymoshenko should be replaced by someone not involved in the
upcoming Rada elections. Presidential Chief of Staff Victor
Baloha said that a new coalition would only serve the
political interests of Tymoshenko and not the needs of
Ukraine. He predicted that an attempt to form a
mega-coalition would be a failure; Tymoshenko was only
interested in protecting her job, not the Ukrainian economy.


COMMENT
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6. (C) Tymoshenko's call for a mega-coalition is unlikely to
get much if any traction outside of her own camp. Her appeal
for unity in the face of crisis comes at a time when her
opponents are so deeply dug in against her that they regard
everything she proposes as self-serving. Thus, they largely
dismiss or ignore her point that now, on the cusp of a
possible economic meltdown, is no time for another round of
divisive elections.
TAYLOR