PARTIES JOCKEY FOR POSITION; SNAP ELECTION COULD

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 002025 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL UP SUBJECT: PARTIES JOCKEY FOR POSITION; SNAP ELECTION COULD "GET UGLY" REF: A. KYIV 1943 ¶B. KYIV 1860 Classified By: Ambassador William Taylor for reasons 1.4 (b,d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) A day after President Yushchenko's decree dissolving the Rada and setting a snap election for December 7, PM Tymoshenko's BYuT blocked the Rada rostrum to prevent a vote on election legislation. Deputy PM Nemyria told the Ambassador that the election could "get ugly" with provocations and personal attacks on Tymoshenko. He lamented that Yushchenko's actions would add to Ukraine's economic and political instability, damage the country's image, and "help Russia." BYuT has made an appeal to the Constitutional Court to clarify the election law, and called for the election to be postponed until the court rules. Recent polls put BYuT and Party of Regions (Regions) in a virtual tie, with only anemic support for Yushchenko's bloc. Nemyria called Yushchenko's presumed hopes that his bloc could get 15 percent of the vote "a joke." End Summary. Tymoshenko Illness Delays Unified BYuT Message... -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) BYuT has yet to announce an official response to Yushchenko's decree dissolving the Rada and scheduling pre-term parliamentary elections on December 7. A BYuT faction meeting, scheduled for October 9, was postponed due to what faction leader Ivan Kirilenko called Tymoshenko's "catastrophic flu." A Tymoshenko television appearanc5d:d?Uytvyn Bloc voted together to add election legislation to the Rada agenda. The amendment would remove the requirement that a valid election must have 50 percent of eligible voters participate. In response, BYuT blocked the Rada rostrum to prevent a vote on the legislation. BYuT MP Serhiy Sobolev said that BYuT would insist that the Rada pass the 2009 budget and other legislation needed to tackle the economic crisis before it takes up election-related issues. The Rada was again paralyzed by a BYuT blockade on October 10. ¶4. (U) BYuT also announced on October 10 that they had submitted an appeal to the Constitutional Court to clarify the rules governing elections. Specifically, they asked the court to clarify the definition of "coalition" and "opposition," as electoral law stipulates that local election commissions shall include representatives "of both coalition and opposition parties." Nemyria: It Could Get Ugly -------------- ¶5. (C) Ambassador met October 10 with Deputy Prime Minister Hryhoriy Nemyria, Tymoshenko's closest foreign policy advisor. Nemyria praised Javier Solana's statement on Yushchenko's declaration for expressing disappointment that Yushchenko would take such a step at a time of economic crisis. He said Yushchenko's actions served only to undermine economic and political stability and would damage Ukraine's reputation. All of this will work to Russia's advantage. ¶6. (C) Once campaigning starts, the government will have a hard time functioning, Nemyria noted. He warned the campaign could -- likely would -- "get ugly." Nemyria worried that Chief of the Presidential Secretariat Viktor Baloha might seek to stir up a crisis in Crimea to try and make Yushchenko look good. Nemyria said that Tymoshenko's enemies were ready to launch a smear campaign, including publicizing a book which claims Tymoshenko has Jewish ancestry. Nemyria said that Yushchenko's belief that a Yushchenko bloc could garner 15 percent of the vote was "a joke." Nemyria was confident that BYuT would perform well. Questions Surround Dissolved Rada's Authority -------------- ¶7. (U) Some are questioning whether the Rada has the authority to pass legislation after Yushchenko's decree. Academy of Sciences political analyst Iryna Kresina stated that the President's decree does not dissolve the authority of the Rada, but it does restrict their authority to pass legislation, especially legislation that creates budgetary obligations. Rada Speaker Arseniy Yatseniuk said that the Constitutional Court is reviewing Article 90 of the constitution, which describes when Rada authority terminates and the President's ability to dissolve the Rada. ¶8. (C) Regions MP Vladimir Makayenko told us on October 10 that it was unlikely that any budget amendments to provide election financing would pass in the Rada, adding that the budget committee had basically disbanded, and Regions MPs were preparing to travel throughout the country to begin campaigning. He noted that the election could be funded through a "loan" from the national bank, provided that either the Minister of Finance (a BYuT member) or the President signed a document promising repayment. Central Election Commission members again reiterated that they were ready to organize elections, but said that if they did not receive funding soon, they could not guarantee preparations would be completed by December 7. Polls, Faction Partners, Show Little Support for Yushchenko -------------- -------------- ¶9. (U) Since Yushchenko's decree, the Sofia Center, Kyiv International Sociology Institute and SOCIS Center have released polls that show relatively strong support for BYuT and Regions, and anemic support for Yushchenko's OU. BYuT averages 24.8 percent, while Regions has 24.1 percent support. Less than 5 percent of respondents said they support OU. According to the poll results, the Communist Party and Lytvyn bloc would both surpass the 3 percent barrier, with 4.6 percent and 4.3 percent respectively. No other party currently polls above 3 percent. More than eight percent of respondents said they would vote "against all" and almost 16 percent said they would not vote. SOCIS Center also reported that 76 percent of respondents said they did not trust Yushchenko, while 37 percent said they did not trust Tymoshenko. ¶10. (C) The press reported that BYuT is in talks with Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, head of the People's Self-Defense movement and Former Foreign Minister Boris Tarasyuk, head of the Rukh party, to include`^/AyQawith any OU-PSD faction member who signed on to MP Mykola Katerynchuk's efforts to reform the OU-PSD/BYuT coalition: Katerynchuk told us that he had 34 OU-PSD members' support. Katerynchuk also told us that his European Party would likely sign on with BYuT, as they could not stand in elections again with Yushchenko, but didn't have the funding or support to go it alone. Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) BYuT's physical blocking of the Rada rostrum and Nemyria's concerns about agitation by the Presidential Secretariat are indications that the election could indeed get ugly. While BYuT seems intent on fighting Yushchenko's decrees, recent polls showing solid public support might shift their focus toward launching their campaign. TAYLOR