PARTY OF REGIONS APPEARS UNITED FOR EARLY ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 002024

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: PARTY OF REGIONS APPEARS UNITED FOR EARLY ELECTION

Classified By: Ambassador William Taylor for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

SUMMARY


1. (C) The Party of Regions appears united around the
upcoming election challenge. Fundraising and organizing for
the pre-term election started in early September. Deputies
will soon start heading to the oblasts for campaigning.
Regions expects to increase its share of Rada seats by
focusing its campaign on pocketbook issues. Regions remains
open to a post-election coalition with Yushchenko's forces in
the Rada, but not with Tymoshenko. End Summary.

UNITING FOR THE ELECTION


2. (C) The Party of Regions appears united in the face of
pre-term parliamentary elections scheduled for December 7th.
Regions Deputy faction leader Hanna Herman told us that
rumors of competing factions within the party are propaganda
written by journalists close to Prime Minister Tymoshenko.
She denied reports that Oligarch Rinat Akhmetov provides most
of the funding for the party and said the party has many
contributors, none of which provide a majority of funding.
She said Regions has the most democratic internal structure
of the major parties because it allows all members to voice
their opinions and seeks consensus. She noted that
differences of opinion within a party are normal and not a
sign that a break-up of Regions is likely. Regions MP
Volodimir Makiyenko agreed that the prospect of an election
has brought people in the party closer together.


ELECTION PLANNING AND FUNDRAISING STARTED WEEKS AGO
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Regions began organizing and collecting funds for
elections soon after the September 2nd vote by the Our
Ukraine-People's Self Defense (OU-PSD) bloc to leave the
governing Orange coalition. After OU-PSD's announcement
Regions started organizing their campaign team. Herman said
Regions is weeks ahead of other parties in getting people on
the ground in oblasts outside of Kyiv. She stressed that
Regions is able to fund and run a high profile campaign
throughout the country. Regions is holding party meetings
October 10 to assign MPs to specific oblasts, so that
campaigning can begin in a few days. Makiyenko said he
expects this to be the last week for any substantial work to
be done in the Rada because many Regions MPs will be out of
Kyiv campaigning until the election.


ELECTION MEANS MORE SEATS FOR REGIONS
--------------


4. (C) Regions MPs tell us they are confident that the party
can improve on its first place showing in last year's
election. Herman said the campaign would focus on pocketbook
issues important to the average Ukrainian. While support for
making Russian an official language and opposition to NATO
membership without a referendum are still part of Regions'
election platform, these issues will not be a focus of the
campaign. Herman said Regions will do well at the polls
because economic issues are most important to voters now and
people trust Regions to run the economy. Tymoshenko will
take an electoral hit because of the downturn in the
Ukrainian economy and she overestimates her popularity.
Herman said that Regions plans to expand its campaign in
Western Ukraine because it believes it can win new votes
there by focusing on economic issues. Herman dismissed the
idea that Presidential Chief of Staff Victor Baloha's United
Center party, or Kyiv Mayor Leonid Chernovyetsky's party
would cross the 3 percent threshold. The Rada would have the
same parties represented as it does now, with the exception
of Lytvyn who was too close to call, except that the balance
of seats would be shifted in Regions' favor.


POST-ELECTION COALITION WITH YUSHCHENKO DESIRABLE
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Herman heaped praise on President Yushchenko and
called him a "man of principle." She said that while Regions
and Yushchenko did not agree on everything, the differences
could be worked out. After the election Regions preference
was for a coalition with Yushchenko because it is the only
way to get past the regional divides in Ukraine and focus on
making life better for the average Ukrainian. What was most
important is that Yushchenko is trustworthy. Herman harshly
criticized Tymoshenko calling her duplicitous, unstable, and
power hungry. She said that recent negotiations with
Tymoshenko to form a governing coalition broke down quickly
because minutes after Tymoshenko left cordial meetings with
Regions leaders she appeared on television calling them
bandits and outlaws. Herman said that Regions would not make
the mistake of trying to make a deal with "that devil" again.


COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) While Party of Regions has differing factions, the
snap election should keep the party together in the
near-term. The major players understand that they have more
power together as a group than they would have apart. If
Regions is as prepared as they claim for the election, it
would give them a significant advantage over Yushchenko's
disintegrating bloc and Tymoshenko's forces. It remains to
be seen if Regions really will focus on pocketbook issues
instead of falling back on rhetoric about Russian language
and campaigning against NATO membership. Last year it broke
its word to Yushchenko not to raise the issue when polls
anticipated low turnout and they saw smaller parties, like
the Vitrenko Bloc (a hard-core pro-Russia, anti-NATO group),
gaining traction with a similar message. Herman's praise for
Yushchenko echoes that of both Party leader Yanukovych and
Oligarch Akhmetov. Regions hopes for a post-election deal
with Yushchenko could also serve to moderate Regions' line on
NATO accession.
TAYLOR