TYMOSHENKO CALLS YUSHCHENKO'S BLUFF

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 001966 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UP SUBJECT: TYMOSHENKO CALLS YUSHCHENKO'S BLUFF REF: A. KYIV 1754 ¶B. KYIV 1943 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires James Pettit for reasons 1.4(b,d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) On October 1, PM Tymoshenko announced that her BYuT faction would accept all Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense (OU-PSD) ultimatums and conditions in order to form a three-party coalition, keep orange forces together, and avoid early elections. At the same time, Tymoshenko predicted Yushchenko would create further obstacles to a new coalition agreement. Yushchenko said he wanted to see Tymoshenko's words matched by BYuT's actions, and OU-PSD MPs called Tymoshenko's announcement a stunt. On October 2, however, BYuT voted with OU-PSD to annul much of the early September legislation that limited presidential powers. End Summary. For the Good of Ukraine, or of Tymoshenko? -------------- ¶2. (U) PM Tymoshenko announced on October 1 that BYuT would accept all conditions sought by Yushchenko's OU-PSD to form a three-party coalition with the Lytvyn Bloc. OU-PSD gave BYuT a list of "principles" required to form a coalition during coalition talks on September 30. This included a repudiation of BYuT's September 2 votes that limited presidential power and a consensus on Russia and Georgia. Tymoshenko said that BYuT did not support OU-PSDs positions, but would accept them to save the democratic coalition and the "strategic course of Ukraine." Tymoshenko expressed certainty that President Yushchenko and OU-PSD faction head Vyacheslav Kyrylenko would come up with new conditions and ultimatums "every day," saying that BYuT would "close their eyes" and accept them to stop the chaos in Ukraine and avoid new elections. This would demonstrate to the country who wants to save the democratic coalition, Tymoshenko said. ¶3. (C) OU-PSD MP Vladislav Kaskiv was quick to dismiss Tymoshenko's statement, calling it a "political stunt." OU-PSD deputy faction head Roman Zvarych told us the statement could be seen as a positive step, but one made out of panic as BYuT runs out of options and Tymoshenko's public support slips. Yushchenko, Surrogates, Weigh in on Announcement -------------- --- ¶4. (U) Yushchenko said he wanted to see BYuT take concrete steps to back up Tymoshenko's words, including BYuT's support for his veto of legislation adopted at the beginning of September; Tymoshenko quickly responded to say BYuT was ready to do so. Yushchenko's Rada representative Oksana Slyusarenko suggested that, for the good of the country, Tymoshenko could give up her PM position to Vladimir Lytvyn and focus on her presidential campaign, "which started on September 2." Slyusarenko charged that Tymoshenko's statement was not made to stabilize the political situation, but to cause a split between the "national democratic forces." October 2: BYuT Backs Up Words with Actions -------------- ¶5. (C) On October 2, BYuT voted with OU-PSD to annul much of the September 2 legislation that limited presidential power (Ref. A). BYuT MP Ostap Semarak told us that Rada Speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk also proposed to lead a Rada committee to find a consensus position on Russia and Georgia, effectively taking that issue off the table. Semarak said that it is now up to OU-PSD to make a move, noting that the most contentious issues were out of the way. He noted that all 156 BYuT faction members had signed on to an orange coalition, with Lytvyn, along the lines of the previous coalition agreement. ¶6. (C) After the October 2 votes, BYuT MP Shkil told us that BYuT, OU-PSD and Lytvyn would again hold coalition talks. He was hopeful, but not confident, that OU-PSD would agree to a new coalition. OU-PSD MP Kyrylo Kulikov, who supports the new three-party coalition, said that, for Yushchenko and the OU-PSD leadership, BYuT's actions today is not enough, and "it will never be enough" to form a new coalition. Yushchenko called BYuT's votes in the Rada "political charlatanism," saying the legislation could be re-introduced at any time. He said he was ready to dissolve the Rada if a new coalition is not formed within the "proper timeframe." OU-PSD Negotiating in Bad Faith, BYuT Claims -------------- ¶7. (C) Shkil told us that earlier coalition talks on September 30 achieved little progress, adding that OU-PSD demands are "not negotiation." Semarak told us that on September 20 Yushchenko ordered OU-PSD not to form a coalition. In a meeting with EconOff, BYuT MP Serhiy Teryokhin noted that MP Zvarych told him OU-PSD would never sign a new agreement with BYuT. On October 1, Zvarych told us that OU-PSD did not make ultimatums, but rather offered proposals with a view to re-establishing the pre-September 2 status quo. He said OU-PSD would continue to negotiate with BYuT. Before Tymoshenko Announcement: Elections Most Likely -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Before Tymoshenko's October 1 announcement, MPs from BYuT, Regions and OU-PSD agreed that a new coalition was unlikely. Regions MP Yuriy Miroshnychenko said elections were a "certainty", adding that Yanukovych had decided elections were Regions' best way forward. Miroshnychenko said that the Rada parties would decide the election date by consensus. OU-PSD deputy faction head Ruslan Knyazevych told us that there was "almost no chance" that OU-PSD and BYuT could re-align, saying that the parties would continue talks, but agreement was unlikely. OU-PSD MP Kaskiv agreed, telling us there was only a "very slim chance" OU-PSD and BYuT could come together, and only then through personal agreement between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko. BYuT contacts gave a similarly dim view, saying all parties are preparing for elections, and Lytvyn expressed little doubt that elections would be held this winter. Knyazevych told us that "we could all be surprised" by a last minute BYuT/Regions coalition announcement. On October 2, Regions MP Vladimir Makayenko intimated that such a surprise could be coming. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Yushchenko and OU-PSD continue to call for a new coalition while doing little to achieve agreement with BYuT. With her public agreement to their stated preconditions, and BYuT's votes in the Rada, Tymoshenko appears to have called their bluff. MPs insist any rapprochement must be between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, a doubtful prospect. Reflecting Yushchenko and Tymoshenko's relationship writ large, Tymoshenko arrived at the airport for her October 2 flight to Moscow to find her plane gone: Yushchenko had taken it to Lviv after his plane experienced technical problems, leaving Tymoshenko and her entourage scrambling to find a replacement. PETTIT