TYMOSHENKO CALLS YUSHCHENKO'S BLUFF

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 001966

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UP
SUBJECT: TYMOSHENKO CALLS YUSHCHENKO'S BLUFF

REF: A. KYIV 1754

B. KYIV 1943

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires James Pettit for reasons 1.4(b,d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) On October 1, PM Tymoshenko announced that her BYuT
faction would accept all Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense
(OU-PSD) ultimatums and conditions in order to form a
three-party coalition, keep orange forces together, and avoid
early elections. At the same time, Tymoshenko predicted
Yushchenko would create further obstacles to a new coalition
agreement. Yushchenko said he wanted to see Tymoshenko's
words matched by BYuT's actions, and OU-PSD MPs called
Tymoshenko's announcement a stunt. On October 2, however,
BYuT voted with OU-PSD to annul much of the early September
legislation that limited presidential powers. End Summary.

For the Good of Ukraine, or of Tymoshenko?
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2. (U) PM Tymoshenko announced on October 1 that BYuT would
accept all conditions sought by Yushchenko's OU-PSD to form a
three-party coalition with the Lytvyn Bloc. OU-PSD gave BYuT
a list of "principles" required to form a coalition during
coalition talks on September 30. This included a repudiation
of BYuT's September 2 votes that limited presidential power
and a consensus on Russia and Georgia. Tymoshenko said that
BYuT did not support OU-PSDs positions, but would accept them
to save the democratic coalition and the "strategic course of
Ukraine." Tymoshenko expressed certainty that President
Yushchenko and OU-PSD faction head Vyacheslav Kyrylenko would
come up with new conditions and ultimatums "every day,"
saying that BYuT would "close their eyes" and accept them to
stop the chaos in Ukraine and avoid new elections. This
would demonstrate to the country who wants to save the
democratic coalition, Tymoshenko said.


3. (C) OU-PSD MP Vladislav Kaskiv was quick to dismiss
Tymoshenko's statement, calling it a "political stunt."
OU-PSD deputy faction head Roman Zvarych told us the
statement could be seen as a positive step, but one made out
of panic as BYuT runs out of options and Tymoshenko's public
support slips.

Yushchenko, Surrogates, Weigh in on Announcement
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4. (U) Yushchenko said he wanted to see BYuT take concrete
steps to back up Tymoshenko's words, including BYuT's support
for his veto of legislation adopted at the beginning of
September; Tymoshenko quickly responded to say BYuT was ready
to do so. Yushchenko's Rada representative Oksana
Slyusarenko suggested that, for the good of the country,
Tymoshenko could give up her PM position to Vladimir Lytvyn
and focus on her presidential campaign, "which started on
September 2." Slyusarenko charged that Tymoshenko's
statement was not made to stabilize the political situation,
but to cause a split between the "national democratic
forces."

October 2: BYuT Backs Up Words with Actions
--------------


5. (C) On October 2, BYuT voted with OU-PSD to annul much of
the September 2 legislation that limited presidential power
(Ref. A). BYuT MP Ostap Semarak told us that Rada Speaker
Arseniy Yatsenyuk also proposed to lead a Rada committee to
find a consensus position on Russia and Georgia, effectively
taking that issue off the table. Semarak said that it is now
up to OU-PSD to make a move, noting that the most contentious
issues were out of the way. He noted that all 156 BYuT
faction members had signed on to an orange coalition, with
Lytvyn, along the lines of the previous coalition agreement.


6. (C) After the October 2 votes, BYuT MP Shkil told us that
BYuT, OU-PSD and Lytvyn would again hold coalition talks. He
was hopeful, but not confident, that OU-PSD would agree to a
new coalition. OU-PSD MP Kyrylo Kulikov, who supports the
new three-party coalition, said that, for Yushchenko and the
OU-PSD leadership, BYuT's actions today is not enough, and
"it will never be enough" to form a new coalition.
Yushchenko called BYuT's votes in the Rada "political
charlatanism," saying the legislation could be re-introduced
at any time. He said he was ready to dissolve the Rada if a
new coalition is not formed within the "proper timeframe."

OU-PSD Negotiating in Bad Faith, BYuT Claims
--------------

7. (C) Shkil told us that earlier coalition talks on
September 30 achieved little progress, adding that OU-PSD
demands are "not negotiation." Semarak told us that on
September 20 Yushchenko ordered OU-PSD not to form a
coalition. In a meeting with EconOff, BYuT MP Serhiy
Teryokhin noted that MP Zvarych told him OU-PSD would never
sign a new agreement with BYuT. On October 1, Zvarych told
us that OU-PSD did not make ultimatums, but rather offered
proposals with a view to re-establishing the pre-September 2
status quo. He said OU-PSD would continue to negotiate with
BYuT.

Before Tymoshenko Announcement: Elections Most Likely
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Before Tymoshenko's October 1 announcement, MPs from
BYuT, Regions and OU-PSD agreed that a new coalition was
unlikely. Regions MP Yuriy Miroshnychenko said elections
were a "certainty", adding that Yanukovych had decided
elections were Regions' best way forward. Miroshnychenko
said that the Rada parties would decide the election date by
consensus. OU-PSD deputy faction head Ruslan Knyazevych told
us that there was "almost no chance" that OU-PSD and BYuT
could re-align, saying that the parties would continue talks,
but agreement was unlikely. OU-PSD MP Kaskiv agreed, telling
us there was only a "very slim chance" OU-PSD and BYuT could
come together, and only then through personal agreement
between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko. BYuT contacts gave a
similarly dim view, saying all parties are preparing for
elections, and Lytvyn expressed little doubt that elections
would be held this winter. Knyazevych told us that "we could
all be surprised" by a last minute BYuT/Regions coalition
announcement. On October 2, Regions MP Vladimir Makayenko
intimated that such a surprise could be coming.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Yushchenko and OU-PSD continue to call for a new
coalition while doing little to achieve agreement with BYuT.
With her public agreement to their stated preconditions, and
BYuT's votes in the Rada, Tymoshenko appears to have called
their bluff. MPs insist any rapprochement must be between
Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, a doubtful prospect. Reflecting
Yushchenko and Tymoshenko's relationship writ large,
Tymoshenko arrived at the airport for her October 2 flight to
Moscow to find her plane gone: Yushchenko had taken it to
Lviv after his plane experienced technical problems, leaving
Tymoshenko and her entourage scrambling to find a
replacement.






PETTIT