UKRAINE: DAS MERKEL HEARS SKEPTICISM ON UNITED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 001455 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UP SUBJECT: UKRAINE: DAS MERKEL HEARS SKEPTICISM ON UNITED CENTER AND COALITION Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary. During his July 24-25 visit to Kyiv, DAS David Merkel heard from representatives of several political forces that the way forward on internal politics was unclear, but that a great deal depends on President Yushchenko and how he decides to proceed. Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Bohatyryova said that the new political project United Center (UC),created by Presidential Chief of Staff Baloha, had no future. She also argued that the President's focus on divisive cultural issues, like language and the Church, hurt his ability to unite the country and build a power base. First Deputy Prime Minister Turchynov echoed Bohatyryova's comments that UC was a dead project and blamed Baloha for causing all the tensions in the coalition and in the Rada. Turchynov also said that the presidential team was nervous about next year's elections and needed Yushchenko to reinvigorate Our Ukraine if it wanted to succeed, and reaffirmed that Tymoshenko would prefer to remain in office for the next year. Regions financier Akhmetov told DAS Merkel that the coalition was de facto dead, although the Communists seemed to be willing to vote with it. He insisted that if a new coalition was formed, Yanukovych was the only serious candidate to become Prime Minister. End summary. Bohatyryova: United Center Not the Answer for Yushchenko -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) NSDC Secretary Raisa Bohatyryova told DAS Merkel of her doubts about the viability of United Center (UC),the political party controlled by Presidential Secretariat Head Viktor Baloha, and took the opportunity to reiterate that she will not consider taking leadership in the party, as has been rumored in the press. She speculated that UC does not have a defined voter base and probably would not be able to garner enough votes in the event of a near-term parliamentary election. In order to be viable, she argued, the party must acquire charismatic leadership and be able to unite east and west. On the latter point, she noted that this presumed pro-presidential party will not be helped by Yushchenko's insistence on pushing an agenda -- on Ukrainian language and religious issues, for example -- that is so unpalatable in the east. (Comment. Bohatyryova's strong criticism of Baloha, and even Yushchenko, underscores once again that there are strong differences within the presidential team on a way forward. End comment.) Turchynov on Coalition Politics -------------- ¶3. (C) DAS Merkel solicited Acting Prime Minister and Tymoshenko right-hand man Oleksandr Turchynov's views on the dynamics of the Rada coalition and how they would develop between now and the 2009 presidential election. Turchynov said that the political situation is quite complicated, particularly because the President's position is undefined. The President wanted a coalition to be formed with the Party of Regions, but there was no political support. In a thinly veiled reference to Baloha, Turchynov said the parliamentary crisis was caused by one person. Once Baloha realizes his actions cause more harm than good and ceases his shenanigans, the Rada's problems will end. Turchynov noted that the final Rada session was remarkable because the attempt by Baloha and Regions to disband the Rada failed. He added that the current coalition has stayed together because even though the coalition in theory can be terminated, there is no new coalition to take its place. In Turchynov's opinion, the President's party, Our Ukraine (OU),should "rejuvenate its authority." Baloha's party, United Center, has no chances of survival because it does not have any political support. ¶4. (C) DAS Merkel asked Turchynov how OU could rejuvenate its authority and what prospects Baloha has for political survival. Turchynov replied that the authority of OU lies with Yushchenko, and bluntly added that OU doesn't care about Baloha's political career. Turchynov said that without a consistent, transparent process to bring Ukraine's democratic forces together, OU has no future. The President's team, according to Turchynov, is nervous about the presidential elections. When asked whether the PM would be best served by remaining in office or leaving if no merging of democratic forces occurred before the presidential election, Turchynov said the PM would remain in office and that what's best for Ukraine is more important than what's best for political campaigns. Akhmetov: Coalition is Dead, Unclear What is Next -------------- -------------- KYIV 00001455 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) In response to a question about the current coalition and the prospects for a new one, Party of Regions oligarch Rinat Akhmetov said that while it was hard to predict what would occur, it was clear the current coalition no longer exists. PM Tymoshenko complains that the President's team will not let her work, but the coalition is her responsibility -- if her partners are that bad, she should go into the opposition. He added that the Communists seemed to be de facto part of the coalition, or at least colluding with them, pointing to the CPU's unwillingness to vote no confidence in the Tymoshenko government and recent public praise Communist leaders have given government policies. (Note. Other members of Regions made the same argument that the Communists are secretly backing Tymoshenko in the press last week. End note.) Akhmetov said that if a new coalition was formed, Yanukovych was the only serious candidate for PM. ¶6. (C) Akhmetov also criticized recent attempts to amend the constitution, including by his own party. He said that he opposed any constitutional changes that only benefit one player, even Yanukovych. He said that Tymoshenko and Yanukovych had reached tentative agreement on constitutional changes, but he had opposed them. He said he only wanted amendments if they would benefit the whole country - "no games". Akhmetov advocated gathering experts to prepare amendments and then voting on them. ¶7. (U) DAS Merkel did not clear this cable. ¶8. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. TAYLOR