UKRAINE: TYMOSHENKO SAFE, NO CONFIDENCE VOTE FAILS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 001356

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: TYMOSHENKO SAFE, NO CONFIDENCE VOTE FAILS

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission for reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) Summary. In a nail-biting vote, Prime Minister
Tymoshenko was given a reprieve after Party of Regions'
resolution of no confidence in the Cabinet failed, garnering
only 174 votes. After a lengthy diatribe from Regions MP
Azarov, Tymoshenko gave an impassioned defense of her
government's work. Speaker Yatsenyuk then reminded the Rada
that voting on the fate of the government was the most
important decision the parliament could take and if it chose
to remove Tymoshenko, the responsibility for the future of
the country would be solely on the Rada's head. In somewhat
surprising voting results, only 172 members of Regions and
two from OU-PSD voted no confidence. The Rada has since
moved on to consider budget amendments proposed by the
Cabinet and by the President. After the votes, we expect the
Rada to adjourn for the summer.


2. (C) Comment. Tymoshenko is now technically safe for the
summer, but the political situation will remain convoluted.
The coalition still formally exists, but it is not clear if
it will have enough votes in the fall to accomplish anything
without outside help. All sides now have six weeks to
regroup and to continue negotiations on possible scenarios
for the fall. BYuT, OU-PSD, and the Presidential Secretariat
will have to work out their differences or there will
continue to be stalemate in September. Although the
resolution's failure is a setback for Regions, we expect them
to continue to push behind the scenes for a broad coalition,
although this may weaken their argument that Yanukovych
should be PM. It will also be interesting to see what
Tymoshenko might have promised Lytvyn Bloc, and the
Communists to a lesser degree, in exchange for not supporting
her dismissal. One outcome of the vote's failure is that the
specter of new pre-term Rada elections has been pushed down
the road -- a result that many MPs, but particularly OU-PSD,
must welcome. End summary and comment.

No Confidence Goes on the Agenda
--------------


3. (SBU) After being deadlocked all week -- BYuT had been
blockading the rostrum around-the-clock July 8-10 and Regions
threatened to blockade on July 11 -- the Rada leadership
managed to reach a compromise to hold a session on Friday
July 11. The agreement was that the Rada would examine three
items on its agenda -- Regions' no confidence resolution in
the government, budget amendments proposed by the Cabinet and
the President, and early local elections in some cities.
Yatsenyuk called the session to order around noon.

No Confidence in the No-Confidence Resolution
--------------


4. (SBU) Regions submitted its resolution of no confidence on
the Tymoshenko government, with the required 150 signatures,
on June 20. Under Rada rules, the PM then had 10 days to
provide a written report to the Rada on the work of her
government, which she apparently did although the report was
not made public. However, Regions MPs on July 11 criticized
the report as insufficient and demanded the PM present an
oral report on the Rada floor. Tymoshenko and her Cabinet
appeared at the Rada as instructed at lunchtime. First,
Regions MP Azarov gave a 45-minute presentation on why his
faction believed Tymoshenko should be dismissed, then
answered questions.


5. (SBU) Tymoshenko then gave a 15-minute, impassioned
presentation defending her Cabinet's work, complete with a
power point presentation. She said that the grain harvest
would be good this year and that Ukraine's GDP was almost
equal to that of Poland's. (Note. Tymoshenko was clearly
exaggerating for effect, since Ukraine continues to lag
behind Poland in any measure of national output. End note.)
She also argued that her Cabinet had only been in office for
six months, while Azarov had had eleven years in power (in
the Kuchma administration and the most recent Yanukovych
government). She said that thanks to those governments, her
government had inherited bad roads, schools, hospitals, and
airports. She concluded by saying that she was ready to
accept whatever decision the Rada took and that she was ready
to continue working, but that if the Rada voted against her,
it should be prepared to form a new coalition and government.


6. (SBU) MPs had a chance to ask the PM questions and then
faction leaders each got to make a short speech. Lytvyn, who
surely knew he carried the swing vote, made a statement that
did not give away his hand -- but he called both the
government and opposition "liars" and said that they had each
presented a version of the "truth" but not the real truth.
He said that the issue of policies and who should be in

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government should be discussed in more depth and in a more
measured fashion in September. Speaker Yatsenyuk concluded
the pre-vote activities with a sternly-delivered lecture to
the parliament. Alluding to the technical snafus surrounding
the first Tymoshenko confirmation vote in mid-December, he
asked all MPs to sit down and get ready to vote, because he
would not allow a re-vote. He told MPs that dismissing the
government was the most serious decision the parliament could
take, and if it was going to happen, a new coalition and
government should already have been agreed upon, which it
wasn't. Therefore, the Rada was taking onto its shoulders
sole responsibility for the future of the country. Regions
MP Hanna Herman responded that if Tymoshenko was not removed,
the MPs who protected her would bear that responsibility.
Yatsenyuk also reminded them that if the government was
dismissed and no new government was formed within 60 days,
President Yushchenko could dismiss the parliament.


7. (SBU) After the ten-second vote, Regions came up short --
its faction supplied 172 (out of 175) votes and OU-PSD only
two votes (Ivan Plyushch and Viktor Topolov),for a total of

174. BYuT, Lytvyn Bloc, and the Communists did not
participate in the vote, and OU-PSD split between votes
against and abstentions. Communist leader Symonenko later
told the press that his faction had voted against the
resolution because they had not received any guarantee from
Regions about the format of a new coalition.

Budget up Next
--------------


8. (SBU) As agreed upon, the Rada has now turned its
attention to the Cabinet's budget amendments; Tymoshenko is
presenting the government's bill which will be discussed and
voted on. If the Cabinet's bill is passed, the issue is
completed. If it fails, there is a second budget amendment
bill on the floor, submitted by Yushchenko late on July 10.
BYuT ostensibly had blockaded the rostrum July 8-10 to demand
that the Rada consider the Cabinet's budget amendments before
it do anything else, although many in the Rada told us they
were trying to prevent the no confidence vote. The Cabinet's
amendments were submitted to the Budget Committee earlier in
the week, and the Committee finally endorsed them and sent
them to the floor late on July 10. Yushchenko called on the
Rada to stay in session until the budget was amended but also
threatened to veto the budget amendment law if it was passed
as submitted by the Cabinet, prompting some political
observers to comment that the President was simply trying to
string out the process and prevent the Cabinet from
successfully amending the budget. Late at night on July 10,
Yushchenko submitted his own budget amendments. Under Rada
rules, because the Cabinet's bill was submitted first, it is
subject to the first vote -- the second bill only goes to
vote if the first fails. One coalition member told us that
they had included all of Lytvyn Bloc's amendments in the
Cabinet's bill in order to win the faction's support,
although Lytvyn said publicly on July 11 that his faction
will not vote for it.

Next Steps
--------------


9. (SBU) The Rada should close its plenary work for the
summer today. Although the Rada is nominally open one more
week -- for "constituent work" -- MPs will head off for
vacation or engage in other projects. The Tymoshenko
government will continue to work. When the Rada reconvenes
on September 2, all eyes will be on whether the coalition is
functioning, with or without Lytvyn Bloc. The Constitutional
Court has so far refused to hear two petitions on the status
of the coalition, saying that the issue is not within its
purview. There is one more petition pending. If the Court
does not take the issue up, the coalition remains intact on
paper under the argument that factions, not individuals, form
the coalition. BYuT may continue to try to get its defector,
Rybakov, removed from the Rada, although the case is now tied
up in court.


10. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
TAYLOR