UKRAINE: LAST WEEK OF RADA STARTS OFF BADLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 001342

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: LAST WEEK OF RADA STARTS OFF BADLY

Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) Summary. Party of Regions on July 8 shook up the
planned agenda for the Rada's last week in plenary by moving
forward with efforts to hold a no confidence vote on Prime
Minister Tymoshenko. In response, her BYuT faction blocked
the Rada rostrum and Speaker Yatsenyuk was forced to close
the Rada session for the day. In the halls of the Rada,
rumors swirled about the likelihood of the no confidence vote
successfully passing. Regions MP Miroshnychenko told us that
his faction was unsure how many votes they had. BYuT MP
Kurpil told us he thought there might be as many as ten BYuT
MPs who had been "persuaded" to support Regions in the vote,
while a BYuT aide told us that she had heard Regions had
bought sufficient coalition support for its no confidence
resolution. If the resolution is put on the agenda,
Tymoshenko will have ten days to present a report to the Rada
on her government's performance. If the Rada then votes no
confidence, her Cabinet goes into acting status. The next
steps would likely be subject to debate, with the viability
of the current coalition in question, and the President's
powers to dismiss the Rada constitutionally limited.

2.(C) Comment. What happens next? Most people we talked to
agreed that Yushchenko and Our Ukraine do not want to face
early Rada elections -- neither OU nor United Center has a
good shot at gaining seats, at minimum the faction will be
much smaller, and Yushchenko cannot handle another electoral
defeat ahead of the presidential elections. That being said,
he may be trying to discredit Tymoshenko, while stalling
talks with Regions, and looking for an option that leaves him
with a PM who is neither Tymoshenko nor Yanukovych. For its
part, Regions may be increasing the pressure on the President
and his faction in hopes of getting the broad coalition they
have long sought. It still remains very possible that the
Rada will simply remain mired in fighting through the summer
recess, delaying resolution of these political struggles
until the fall. End summary and comment.

No-Confidence is the Goal
--------------


3. (SBU) Party of Regions announced the morning of July 8
that it would insist Speaker Yatsenyuk consider their
resolution to hold a no-confidence vote on Prime Minister
Tymoshenko and threatened to block the Rada rostrum if
Yatsenyuk did not comply. Instead, BYuT MPs blocked the
Rada, and after two and a half hours of recess, the Speaker
closed the session for the day. Kyrylenko told the press
that BYuT MPs would block the session hall until the Rada
considered budget amendments prepared by the Cabinet.
Yatsenyuk called faction leaders to his office to try to find
a compromise, but later told the press that although he
thought there were enough votes to dismiss Tymoshenko
(placing her in acting status),he did not believe there were
enough to form a new coalition and that a resolution to the
political stand-off would therefore be postponed until the
fall.


4. (C) Regions MP Miroshnychenko told us that his faction was
indeed trying to push the no confidence vote forward. He
pointed to the copy of the constitution he was carrying and
said he was putting together the constitutional argument for
why Regions was justified in its demands. However, he
confided that no one really knew whether they had 226 votes
to pass the no-confidence resolution. There were official
negotiations and negotiations being conducted in the hall, he
said, but only when the vote was held would they see the
level of support. For example, the Communists were not
cosponsoring Regions' resolution, so Regions did not know how
they would vote. (Note. Several people told us that Regions
had filled it seats today, a sign that they were preparing
for an important vote. End note.) Regions MP Chechetov told
the press that they had more than enough votes to dismiss
Tymoshenko.

Has the Coalition Lost its Votes?
--------------


5. (C) BYuT MP Kurpil confirmed to us that Regions was
working hard on the no confidence motion and that he was
worried that as many as ten BYuT MPs might have been
"persuaded" to defect, although he was not sure about that.
An aide from BYuT later told us that Regions had bought
enough votes to secure the non confidence vote; it was just a
question of when the vote would be held. Kurpil said that
although the government and BYuT had made getting budget
amendments passed the top priority for the week, the
amendments were not on the agenda because Yushchenko did not
want them passed. If the budget were amended, this would
allow the government to keep working, and the President did

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not want the PM to succeed. Instead, he wanted a new
coalition, but one without Yanukovych. Kurpil thought
Yushchenko would try to put forward Defense Minister
Yekhanurov or Chief of Staff Baloha as nominee to be PM,
although he thought Yatsenyuk might be offered up as a
compromise. If Yatsenyuk were made PM, this would clear the
path for Lytvyn to reclaim the Speaker's chair.


6. (C) However, Kurpil said that Regions was pushing the no
confidence vote now to pressure the President and OU. If the
government was dismissed, the 60-day clock would begin to
tick on forming a new government. Regions would then use
this timeline to threaten undecided members of Our Ukraine --
either they could join a broad coalition or they would face
new Rada elections, and would likely lose their seats.
(Note. This comment jives with what a lot of political
contacts -- MPs, NSDC officials -- told us at the Embassy's
Fourth of July reception. They believed that there was a
good possibility that neither Our Ukraine nor United Center
could cross the three-percent threshold in pre-term
elections, and Yushchenko was doing everything he could to
avoid new elections. End note.)

What Might Happen Next
--------------


7. (SBU) On a procedural note, if the resolution to hold a no
confidence vote passes, Tymoshenko has ten days in which to
give a presentation on her government's work to the Rada,
either in person or in writing. If the Rada puts the
resolution on the Rada's agenda on July 9, the PM should have
until the end of the following week to respond -- July 18 is
the last day of the Rada's spring session. There has already
been discussion by Rada members that the last week of the
session should be plenary work, although that is not what is
on the calendar. Yatsenyuk told the press that he would
support the Rada holding an extra week of plenary only if
there was a concrete and widely-agreed upon agenda. However,
if the Rada remains logjammed and cannot hold the vote until
after July 9, they would potentially have to vote to hold an
extraordinary session to consider the no confidence motion.


8. (SBU) The dismissal of Tymoshenko's government would
affect only the status of the Cabinet, not the Rada
coalition. (Only the Speaker can declare the coalition
terminated.) The constitution says the coalition must form a
new government within 60 days. Such a scenario would
undoubtedly bring up the debate again as to whether the
coalition exists at that time, as well as expose the fact
that even if it exists de jure, it is unlikely to have 226
votes to confirm a new PM. If the coalition is found
declared terminated, the Rada has 30 days to form a new
coalition. The constitution says violation of these
timelines is grounds for the President to disband the Rada,
but his hands are tied by the constitutional provision that
says he cannot disband the parliament for a year following
pre-term elections (which were held September 30, 2007).
Therefore, as Yatsenyuk says, there is a good chance that
resolution of the political stalemate will be postponed until
the fall.


9. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
TAYLOR