UKRAINE: NATO SYG/NAC VISIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 001201

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2018
TAGS: NATO PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: NATO SYG/NAC VISIT

Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary and Comment. The June 16-17 visit to Kyiv and
Ukraine's regional capitals by NATO Secretary General de Hoop
Scheffer and the North Atlantic Council (NAC) was seen as a
strong positive by the MFA and Ukrainian pro-NATO political
forces. Extensive positive press coverage, the constructive
and forward-leaning participation of PM Tymoshenko, the
limited size and scope of protests, and the opportunity for
delegation members to visit regional capitals and interact
with civil society contributed to the positive assessment.
The engagement by SYG de Hoop Scheffer in addressing local
NATO myths (future NATO bases in Ukraine, forced
participation in operations, etc) and countering Russian
claims regarding negative consequences of NATO membership was
much appreciated by the Ukrainian hosts. Russian saber
rattling in the run-up to the visit was ultimately seen in
Kyiv as a net positive, potentially driving undecided
Ukrainians away from the Russian position towards a
reappraisal of closer ties with NATO. Continued measured
engagement by Allies and support for the evolving NATO
Information Campaign should produce positive results in
broadening and informing the domestic debate in the run-up to
the December Ministerial; continued domestic infighting and
the specter of possible early elections remain unhelpful in
creating the necessary political stability to counter MAP
skeptics at Brussels. End Summary and Comment.

MFA Very Pleased with Visit Outcome
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2. (C) Our MFA NATO interlocutors believe the visit was
extremely successful, noting especially the strong positive
signals sent by PM Tymoshenko during her two meetings with
the NATO delegation. PM Tymoshenko's constructive role
during the NAC meeting with President Yushchenko and the
National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) and her strong
statements during the subsequent meeting held with the
Cabinet of Ministers were underlined by MFA NATO Deputy
Director General Prystaiko. Prystaiko noted the PM's support
of MAP was more direct and forceful than during any previous
NATO exchange, especially her statements that "I signed the
MAP request letter and I stand by it," and "I want MAP in
December." Tymoshenko did maintain her more nuanced position
on NATO/MAP in her public statements, emphasizing the need
for the coalition to work together, focusing on former PM
Yanukovych's support of NATO membership while in office, and
underscoring that the question of membership would be decided
by referendum.


3. (C) Some attendees confided to the MFA that they had
received Russian demarches in their capitals trying to derail
the NAC visit, which Prystaiko described as clumsy and
ultimately counterproductive. The visit sent a strong signal
of support to pro-NATO forces in Ukraine, according to
Prystaiko, and countered any sense that a spate of recent
Russian warnings would weaken either the government's resolve
to achieve MAP or NATO's continued support of Ukraine's
further integration into the Euroatlantic community. The MFA
believed Moscow's hard-line stance, combined with harshly
anti-Ukrainian reporting in Russian media (seen in most of
Ukraine) was increasingly pushing undecided Ukrainians into
the pro-NATO camp.


4. (C) The MFA was also very pleased with the proactive
stance taken by SYG de Hoop Scheffer, noting his strong
statements regarding NATO membership strengthening Ukraine's
sovereignty and his rebuttal of Russian claims that NATO
membership would gut Ukraine's defense industry and lead to
the imposition of a visa regime with Russia. The relatively
low turnout of anti-NATO protesters and appearance of NATO
supporters (primarily from the "NATO Tak" movement launched
by the People's Union Our Ukraine (PUOU) party) was also
viewed as a positive. The 1,000 anti-NATO protesters who
attempted to disrupt the NAC visit to Dnipropetrovsk were met
by 300 NATO supporters -- and the demonstrations remained
relatively peaceful without injuries or arrests reported.

Germany Stands Out
--------------


5. (C) The MFA noted also the "negative" approach taken by
the German PermRep during the various meetings, which was in
some instances viewed as an attempt to walk back the
Bucharest Communique language. The upcoming July 21 visit by
Chancellor Merkel to Kyiv is viewed by the MFA as an
opportunity to judge the level of resistance in Berlin to
granting MAP in December. Prystaiko described the German
position as "dug-in" and said that the GOU would avoid direct
confrontation on the issue, while trying to engage in a
conversation on specific German concerns. (Embassy note.
Ambassador Taylor has discussed with DFM Khandohiy and Deputy
Head of the Presidential Secretariat Chaliy the need to avoid
forcing Merkel to take a public position on MAP during the
visit. They agreed that this must be avoided, as her
response would be negative and foreclose any chance at a
positive outcome in December. End note.)

Russia Maintains the Pressure
--------------


6. (U) The NATO delegation visit was preceded on June 14 by
the celebration of the 225th anniversary of Sevastopol,
headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet (BSF). Russian
First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov attended and used
the occasion to fire several rhetorical warning shots
regarding Ukraine's NATO aspirations. He noted that trade
and industrial ties between Russia and Ukraine were sure to
decrease following Ukrainian NATO accession, underlining that
cooperation in the defense sector would cease. He also
opined that NATO was sure to force Ukraine to introduce a
visa regime for Russia, thereby "complicating family,
economic, and business ties of millions of Russians having
relatives in Ukraine." He added that U.S., British, and
German tourists would not flock to Crimea to replace Russian
visitors. The Ukrainian MFA responded in a statement that
NATO and visas are unconnected issues as NATO membership,
unlike EU membership, does not entail a visa regime with
neighboring countries.


7. (U) Ivanov also spoke about the future of Russia's BSF
base in Sevastopol, noting that "From its (Sevastopol's)
founding, it was inseparably linked with the Russian Empire,
the Soviet Union, the entire population of Russia." He also
argued that the BSF defended not only Russian interests, but
the southern borders of Ukraine as well. In an oblique
reference to the increased focus by Kyiv on the need to
withdraw the BSF by the 2017 deadline, Ivanov said that "Loud
blackmail, threats, and deviousness are something that have
never produced good results." Recent statements by Russian
NATO Ambassador Rogozin predicting a popular uprising in
Crimea if Ukraine joined NATO also received press coverage in
Ukraine.


8. (U) In addition, a June 13 Russian Foreign Ministry
statement on purported illegal Ukrainian oil exploration
activity in the Black Sea was widely interpreted as another
signal of Moscow's displeasure with Ukraine's NATO overtures.
The Ukrainian MFA fired back with a statement that all
exploration was taking place in areas clearly within
Ukrainian territory and that claims of activity in any
disputed areas were false. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister
Borys Tarasyuk (current head of the Rada's European
Integration Committee) presented the Russian charge as an
attempt to question the existing border delineation in the
Kerch strait and Sea of Azov and to signal Russia's continued
intention to destabilize Ukraine.

Euro 2008 Soccer Championship's NATO Angle
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9. (U) A very successful pro-NATO TV ad placement during
half-time of Euro 2008 soccer games is creating a lot of buzz
in Ukraine. The 30-second spots highlight details about the
two contesting countries, noting especially their membership
in the EU and NATO -- effectively portraying NATO as an
organization of "normal, friendly, open" countries, as
described by one Embassy contact. The ads also tie into the
pride Ukrainians feel about hosting the upcoming 2012
championship and enhance the focus on a "Western"
orientation. Mission will explore with GOU NATO Information
Campaign leadership other opportunities for emphasizing focus
on NATO members and sense of community this evokes in
Ukrainian population.


10. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
TAYLOR