UKRAINE: RADA COUNTING DOWN TO SUMMER RECESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 001182

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: RADA COUNTING DOWN TO SUMMER RECESS

Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) Summary. The consensus in the Rada across the
political spectrum on June 17 was that regardless of the
legal status of the coalition, the reality is that the
parliament will not accomplish anything significant in its
remaining month in session and all are now looking to the
fall for change. What that change will be, however, was up
for debate, with some MPs predicting a new coalition and some
predicting another round of pre-term Rada elections. All
agreed that the situation was really about next year's
presidential election, although none could say how this would
all play out in the end. From the Rada floor, Speaker
Yatsenyuk reiterated that he would not announce the
termination of the coalition, but the parliament was unable
to muster a majority even for procedural votes, and in the
end, Yatsenyuk closed the session early and called faction
leaders to meet for further talks. Regions MPs began
collecting signatures to appeal to the Constitutional Court
about the coalition's legal status, but no one we spoke with
anticipated that the Court would rule the coalition defunct.


2. (C) Comment. With only two more voting weeks left in the
spring session (the Rada formally adjourns July 18),MPs
appeared reconciled that the parliament would accomplish
nothing significant until the fall. What happens next is
still up in the air. Regions and Lytvyn Bloc MPs with whom
we spoke indicated that a new coalition might be in the
offing, while BYuT MPs alluded to possible new elections.
All agreed that the current infighting, political paralysis,
and economic problems were damaging Prime Minister
Tymoshenko's popular ratings, but none would count her out of
the game. End summary and comment.

Coalition Remains on Paper, but Does not Function
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) From the Rada rostrum, Yatsenyuk on June 17
reiterated his position that as far as he was concerned the
coalition was intact unless a faction withdrew and said he
would not do anything to move towards terminating the
coalition. Several Regions MPs had said in the press ahead
of the Rada session that they expected Yatsenyuk to announce
the official collapse of the coalition. In light of the
Speaker's refusal to do so, the faction began collecting the
necessary 45 signatures of MPs to send a petition to the
Constitutional Court regarding the status of the coalition.
Despite Yatsenyuk's defense of the coalition, the Rada could
not pass a single vote. First they tried to pass a bill
amending traffic rules, but five members of the coalition did
not vote for it and it failed. Then the Rada tried to add
several bills to its agenda -- including amendments to the
law on amnesty, a bill on housing for servicemen from
National Security and Defense Committee Chairman Hrytsenko
(OU-PSD),and amendments to some laws on the tax police --
but no vote obtained the necessary 226. When it became clear
that the Rada could not hold a successful vote, Yatsenyuk
closed the session and called for a meeting of faction
leaders late in the afternoon.

MPs See Nothing Until Fall
--------------


4. (C) There was general agreement among the MPs with whom we
spoke on June 17 that there were no expectations that the
Rada would function between now and summer recess. Regions
MP Makeyenko said that the Rada would not accomplish much in
its reaming month. A glum-looking Hrytsenko said the
coalition was nonexistent and nothing would be done until
September. BYuT MP Shkil told us that the coalition was not
functioning. However, neither they nor other MPs were
certain about what would happen when the Rada returns in
early September.


5. (C) Makeyenko confirmed that Regions was collecting
signatures to appeal to the Constitutional Court about the
status of the coalition, but that he did not expect the Court
to issue a ruling. He blamed the whole situation on
President Yushchenko and his Chief of Staff Baloha, who he
said were trying every angle to get Yushchenko reelected next
year, although he added that he thought their plans were not
working out. He thought they would leave Tymoshenko in
office for now and continue to hammer her in the press in
order to lower her popularity ratings. Although he thought a
broad coalition might happen, he was somewhat skeptical
because he did not think Yushchenko wanted Regions leader
Yanukovych to be Prime Minister again and doubted Yanukovych
would accept any other position. However, he did believe
that Regions oligarch Akhmetov was working with Baloha and
Yushchenko in order to insure that Tymoshenko was not elected
president next year -- although how that would play out,

KYIV 00001182 002 OF 002


Makeyenko could not say. He also said that he did not expect
new pre-term Rada elections this year; they were expensive
and unlikely to change anything. Makeyenko ended by saying
that all would be clear in September.


6. (C) BYuT MP Volynets told us he believed that Yushchenko
was trying to reach agreement with Regions and Lytvyn Bloc,
with Yanukovych becoming PM and Lytvyn becoming Speaker,
leaving Yatsenyuk out in the cold. For that reason,
Yatsenyuk had turned to Tymoshenko, because he saw it as the
only way to protect himself as Speaker. Volynets said that
Yatsenyuk and Tymoshenko had held a meeting in the evening of
June 16 -- he did not know what was agreed to, but he
believed that meeting was the reason that Yatsenyuk had
announced his refusal to call the coalition dead. Volynets
said that he expected early elections in the fall. He
indicated his faction was discussing them and he believed
others were too. He also told us that Baloha had pressured
the business interests of a BYuT MP, poultry entrepreneur
Yevhen Sigal, resulting in the MP refusing to attend Rada
sessions or let anyone else use his voting card to cast votes
in his absence. Volynets's faction colleague Shkil told us
that there was currently no coalition, and that Yushchenko
wanted a broad coalition.


7. (C) Lytvyn Bloc MP Vashchuk said that nothing would happen
until the fall. At that point, she thought the most likely
scenario would be the reformatting of the coalition. While
she could not be certain of the composition of the new
coalition, she thought the best format would be OU-PSD,
Lytvyn Bloc, and Regions. The worst, in her view, would be
an alliance between BYuT and Regions because the uniting of
their business interests would spell the end to democracy.
She thought new elections were unlikely, arguing that BYuT
MPs were less willing to stage another walkout now because of
the expense of new elections and the uncertainty that they
would get their seats back. The other possibility she cited
was rumors now circulating that the constitution would be
amended to take it back to its 2004 form, with no requirement
for a coalition. Vashchuk said that the current demands for
a coalition were too much. It might be better to allow the
President to pick the PM -- getting the candidate confirmed
in the Rada would still require intrafactional cooperation,
but without the current rigid requirements. If events
followed such a path, she believed someone like Yatsenyuk
might become PM.


8. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
TAYLOR