UKRAINE: COALITION TEETERING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 001105

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: COALITION TEETERING

REF: A. KYIV 00960


B. KYIV 01087

Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) Summary. The June 6 announcement by two relatively
unknown MPs -- one from BYuT and one from OU-PSD -- that they
are withdrawing from the coalition leaves the coalition in an
unclear legal status and without enough votes to push through
legislation. BYuT and OU-PSD faction leaders, as well as
President Yushchenko, have sought to calm the waters by
arguing that only factions can withdraw from the coalition
and therefore the coalition remains intact, but contradictory
articles in the constitution and Rada rules and the question
of whether OU-PSD MP Ivan Plyushch is actually a member of
the coalition leave the situation unclear. If they adhere to
Rada rules, the coalition cannot be formally terminated until
Speaker Yatsenyuk announces it at a plenary session -- the
next plenary is scheduled for June 17. In the meantime, all
sides are negotiating -- the two coalition factions are holed
up in emergency meetings and Regions has announced its
readiness to discuss a new coalition. Although the rules are
vague, it seems that the collapse of the coalition would not
lead to the resignation of the Cabinet, allowing the
Tymoshenko government to continue working unless the Rada
actively chooses to remove it through a vote.

2.(C) Comment. We do not know what prompted the two MPs to
leave at this juncture, although many are suggesting bribes
and political pressure brought to bear in an attempt to
collapse the coalition. Ihor Rybakov, a young MP who joined
the Rada in 2006, told the press that he had discovered
corruption within high levels of the government and that he
found he could no longer represent that political force.
However, deputy head of BYuT Kozhemyakin told the press that
Rybakov has ties to Presidential Chief of Staff Baloha and
probably accepted money for his defection. As described in
reftels, Baloha has advocated for a situational majority or
broad coalition, and he warned the Ambassador on June 3 that
the coalition was nearing the point of no return. However,
it is equally possible that Regions was behind the two MPs'
defection -- the faction bribed MPs to switch sides in March
2007 and it is to their benefit to stir up trouble within the
coalition. The question now is whether the coalition can
hold together and walk this situation back. If not, talks
between Regions and OU-PSD may begin in earnest, but doubts
will linger as to whether a majority in OU-PSD would support
cooperation with Regions. In addition, many players still
seem reluctant to go to new elections, suggesting that they
may try to work out a solution that does not include a new
vote. End summary and comment.

Coalition Status Shaken by Two MPs
--------------


3. (C) Speaker Yatsenyuk made the startling announcement from
his dais on the morning of June 6 that two MPs had submitted
letters of resignation from the coalition. The two MPs in
question, Ihor Rybakov from BYuT and Yuriy But from OU-PSD,
are relatively unknown parliamentarians and both fairly new
to the Rada. Rybakov told the press that he was a member of
an intraparliamentary group called "Contraband - Stop," and
that he had discovered corruption at the highest levels of
government, so his conscience would not let him remain in the
coalition. MP But has not offered any public comment.
However, deputy BYuT faction head Kozhemyakin told the press
that Rybakov has been collaborating with Baloha, and several
MPs have implied that the two probably made the decision in
exchange for money. Our EU contacts told us that they have
worked on customs issues with Rybakov, who has business
interests in Odesa and may be aspiring to run the State
Customs Service.

What the Rules Say
--------------


4. (C) What happens next is unclear. The Rada rules are
focused on a coalition being terminated upon withdrawal by a
faction, and this is the argument that MP Oleh Lyashko (BYuT)
and former OU MP Refat Chubarov made to us privately, and
that Yushchenko, Yatsenyuk and other MPs have made to the
press -- that the constitution and Rada rules say that the
coalition is made up of factions, not individuals, and
therefore only a faction can take a decision to withdraw from
the coalition. However, a separate article states that if
the number of MPs who remain in the coalition is less than
226, the coalition is considered terminated. Therefore, an
important question is how many members of the coalition
remain -- 225 or 226. OU-PSD MP Ivan Plyushch refused to
sign the coalition agreement in November 2007 and he is not
listed as a coalition member on the Rada website. However,

KYIV 00001105 002 OF 002


Our Ukraine's press service told us that they believed
Plyushch was a member of the coalition, because he was a
member of their faction, an argument others have repeated.
So far, Plyushch has remained silent on his status.


5. (C) Comment. Interestingly, Baloha and his United Center
have made the same argument that the coalition is still
intact because neither faction has withdrawn. However,
United Center went on to say in a press release that it
believed that Tymoshenko benefited from the coalition's
collapse, because it allowed her not to be responsible for
government mistakes and to call for early Rada elections.
United Center also claimed that it was actions by BYuT and
PSD that have driven the MPs to resign. Such comments
undermine the credibility of their defense of the coalition.
End comment.


6. (SBU) Another key article from the Rada rules says that
the coalition is not formally terminated until the Speaker
announces it as such from the Speaker's dais. Yatsenyuk
closed the Rada plenary session early for the day, after
declaring the coalition was not dead, and the next plenary is
not scheduled until June 17, which means that the status of
the coalition will probably remain in limbo for at least the
next ten days. In the meantime, coalition leaders are
seeking to calm tensions and revive the coalition. Yatsenyuk
has asked Rybakov and But to reconsider their resignations.
Faction leaders have called on Rybakov and But to either
recall their letters of resignation from the coalition or to
resign from the Rada entirely. Both factions called
emergency meetings to discuss the situation. Regions, on the
other hand, has announced that the coalition no longer exists
and that it is ready to engage in negotiations on forming a
new coalition as soon as Yatsenyuk makes his announcement.

Government Seems Safe for now, Elections Unlikely
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) The constitution and Rada rules do not address what
happens to the government in the event of the coalition's
termination, which leads us to believe that the Rada must
still actively dismiss Tymoshenko, if that is the goal.
However, Regions is already referring to Tymoshenko as
"acting PM." The constitution does say that a new coalition
should be formed within a month, but since President
Yushchenko is constitutionally barred from dismissing the
Rada until October 1, it is possible, albeit legally murky,
that the Rada could move forward with no official coalition,
the scenario Chief of Staff Baloha and his allies have
described in the past.


8. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
TAYLOR