UKRAINE: PM TYMOSHENKO TO LEAD DELEGATION FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 000109 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/UMB AND EUR/PRA E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2017 TAGS: UP PGOV PREL GG SUBJECT: UKRAINE: PM TYMOSHENKO TO LEAD DELEGATION FOR SAAKASHVILI INAUGURATION Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: President Yushchenko has asked Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to lead the Ukrainian delegation for the January 20 inauguration of Georgian President Elect Mikhail Saakashvili. Although some here were surprised that Yushchenko was not attending himself, both he and Tymoshenko have very close warm personal relations with the Georgian President cemented during Ukraine's 2004-05 Orange Revolution. Tymoshenko will lead a delegation of six, although as of late January 18, the Ukrainian MFA still did not know who would be accompanying the PM to Tbilisi. This will be Tymoshenko's first foreign trip since becoming Prime Minister -- a testament to both Yushchenko and Tymoshenko's belief that it is essential to show strong support for their Georgian counterparts and the fact that relations with Georgia will remain a top GOU foreign policy priority. End Summary. TYMOSHENKO TO REPRESENT UKRAINE AT INAUGURATION -------------- -- ¶2. (C) According to Georgian DCM Zurab Dvalishvili, the Georgian Government is happy to welcome PM Tymoshenko as Ukraine's representative for the inauguration. Dvalishvili said that the Georgian side did not know why Tymoshenko would attend rather the Yushchenko, but speculated that since President Yushchenko had visited Georgia just before the January 5 Presidential elections to lend his personal support to President Saakashvili, Tymoshenko's visit might be a way to show broad Ukrainian governmental support for Georgia. Dvalishvili quipped that maybe during his visit, Yushchenko had asked Saakashvili to act as a sort of marriage counselor or therapist to help them with their volatile relationship since President Saakashvili has a close personal relationship with both. Joking aside, Dvalishvili emphasized Saakashvili's excellent relations with both Ukrainian leaders and Georgia's desire to work closely with them to deepen bilateral economic and political relations. ¶3. (C) As of late afternoon on January 18, the make-up of the Ukrainian delegation was still unknown. MFA Georgia desk officer Oleksandr Pushkarskiy said the delegation will be no more than six members, but still did not know who would go with Tymoshenko. Pushkarskiy confirmed that President Yushchenko had deliberately decided that PM Tymoshenko's first trip abroad as PM should be to Georgia. Pushkarskiy said Tymoshenko plans to travel to Tbilisi early on January 20 and return the same evening. Georgian DCM Dvalishvili said the Georgian side is working hard to arrange bilateral meetings on the margins of the inauguration, but was uncertain whether anything could be arranged. Dvalishvili blamed the PM's hectic schedule. Pushkarskiy said Tymoshenko would like to spend more than one day in Tbilisi, but her schedule could not accommodate a longer stay. (Embassy note: Tymoshenko has a busy week of travel scheduled, including trips to Moscow on January 23 and to Brussels on January 28-29. End Note.) WARM RELATIONS BASED ON MUTUAL INTERESTS AND RESPECT -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Dvalishvili said that Ukraine and Georgia had very close relations and there were positive feelings between Georgians and Ukrainians on multiple levels. Dvalishvili pointed to Ukraine and Georgia's similar interests and the fact that both face similar "unfair treatment" from Russia. Dvalishvili stated that if you listen to Russian news commentary and substituted Yushchenko or Tymoshenko for Saakashvili or vice versa, the sarcastic and belittling statements are almost indistinguishable. Dvalishvili does not underestimate the personal support the leaders give to one another, jokingly referring to it as "crying on each other's shoulders". Turning serious, Dvalishvili says that it is no secret that Saakashvili, Yushchenko, and Tymoshenko want Russia to stay out of their internal affairs and treat them with respect; not as petulant leaders of vassal states. Dvalishvili said the three leaders generally agree on policy matters such as: economic and political integration with the West; the importance of attracting Western investment; liberalization and diversification of their economies; decreasing dependence on Russian energy; and entry into NATO. In addition to personal warmth, the common vision that Saakashvili, Yushchenko and Tymoshenko have for their countries reinforces close Georgian-Ukrainian bilateral relations. ¶5. (C) Both the Georgian Embassy and the MFA believe that Georgian-Ukrainian relations will only continue to get better. Dvalishvili said Georgia and Ukraine have already agreed to place the highest priority on establishing a Kerch to Poti ferry line. Both the GOU and GOG desire to increase the volume of trade between their respective countries. Dvalishvili believes the ferry line and the ensuing increased trade will quickly become a reality under the Tymoshenko government. The MFA's Pushkarskiy confirmed that this is also a GOU priority. Dvalishvili noted that establishing pipelines for Central Asian oil and gas via Georgia and Ukraine into Europe will be discussed in detail during future meetings. Pushkarskiy confirmed that the GOU views further discussion on this issue as a priority, but that these discussions are preliminary at this point. ¶6. (C) Dvalishvili dismissed the possibility of former PM Yanukovych and the Party of Regions playing an unhelpful role in strengthening bilateral relations. Dvalishvili said although Yanukovych may have pro-Russian leanings, he is not anti-Georgian. Dvalishvili cited a Georgian proverb noting you can pick your friends but not your neighbors. He said Saakashvili's recent statements about a constructive relationship with Russia should be viewed in that light. All political players understand that Russia cannot just be ignored in spite of the negative role it often plays in the region. Dvalishvili said Georgia prefers an "Orange" openly pro-Georgian government, but said that relations with the previous government were cordial. Dvalishvili expressed confidence that if the opposition movement in Georgia came to power, it would pursue the same policy toward Ukraine as the Saakashvili government's current policy. He said it was difficult to find any politician in either county who will say something negative about the bilateral relationship. The MFA agreed, with Pushkarskiy confirming that, across the political spectrum, there no disagreement regarding Ukraine's policy toward Georgia. MULTILATERAL REGIONAL INITIATIVES SLOW -------------- ¶7. (C) In addition to close bilateral relations, both Ukraine and Georgia consider GUAM an important relationship. Dvalishvili noted that Georgia is working closely with Ukraine on their GUAM initiatives and to help make the GUAM secretariat a reality; however, GUAM can only move as fast as SIPDIS its slowest partner. Pushkarskiy said the GOU is ready and willing to move forward in the GUAM framework, especially in the economic sphere. He admits, however; Moldova's unwillingness to fully participate makes pushing GUAM initiatives forward difficult. He said former FM Yatsenyuk was frustrated by GUAM for this reason, and preferred working with Georgia directly on a bilateral basis. According to Pushkarskiy, current FM Ohryzhko has a similar approach, feeling that working bilaterally with Georgia is good policy in its own right and currently the best way to push GUAM forward. ¶8. (C) Dvalishvili acknowledged that Moldova has funding problems, but he believes the lack of Moldovan movement on GUAM is not a funding issue. Dvalishvili blamed the Soviet style leadership of Moldovan President Voronin for making progress difficult. In his view, although facing similar crippling economic measures and rough political treatment from Russia, Voronin, unlike Yushchenko or Saakashvili, decided that appealing to Moscow for concessions was a better tactic than trying to diversify its markets and decrease dependency on Russia. Dvalishvili says the GOU and GOG realize that GUAM irritates Russia; however, they are willing to more forward as fast as possible on GUAM issues. Dvalishvili speculated that Voronin is dragging his feet in order to not irritate Russia while he is negotiating for economic concessions and a solution to the Transnistria conflict. ¶9. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. Taylor